Sure, I can hope so.
Now that you mention it, yeah… he did (personally I much prefer Harris’s oratory to Obama’s… he always felt kinda fake and insubstantial to me, albeit skilled on the surface).
The way I say that is
It’s better to be a pessimist. Either you get the satisfaction of being right, or something better than you expected happens. Either way you win!
Oh, quite a few of them dislike Trump. Not enough to want to vote for Harris, but absolutely believe Trump should not be leading the party. Oddly enough, they all praise Trump’s policies, but some maintain that he is so unlikable that someone else should be running for POTUS. The odd thing is that Trump’s only policies are punish outsiders, insult the Libs, and anything else that will benefit Trump.
I suspect in that case by “trump’s policies” they really mean something about as sophisticated as “He’s an R. Therefore his actual polices are R-standard stuff. Which I prefer over that commie-pinko woke D-standard stuff.”
These are the people who will vote for “[anyone at all] (R)” over “Jeebus Himself (D)”. So they justify to themselves that trump is just a noisy guy still doing the standard R stuff quietly.
Trump is gaining in the polls. It’s also important to remember that he historically does about 4% better on Election Day than he does in the polls.
Friday, August 16 : A second straight day of gains for Trump with some mediocre polling for Harris; her lead in our national polling average is down to 2.4 points from a peak of 3.1. It’s too early to say whether there’s been some turn in momentum or if this is just statistical noise and in any event, Harris will have a chance to refresh her momentum at the DNC next week, but the vibes aren’t as good as they were a week ago
A Twitter posting:
True subtlety would be making it soundproof too.
Being from the Houston region, I see this thread as similar to people’s reactions to hurricane tracking.
Some people see one computer model out of 50 maybe putting a storm within 200 miles 2 weeks out, and they start acting like the world is ending.
Some people see a forecast track headed right for their beachside home and think that’s a great time to host a party.
The sensible people? They prepare their kit before hurricane season and make their contingency plans in advance. And they wait until the forecast shows some reasonable confidence of a solid track to decide whether they’re in good position to ride it out or that it’s time to make good their escape.
There’s been a lot of casting the sensible crowd as pessimistic in this thread rather than folks who are prepared no matter which way the storm goes - whether it veers away or lands right on top of them.
The analogy isn’t really parallel. The “sensible” people here aren’t really preparing for anything except perhaps the psychological devastation, which I would share, of a Trump win. We are not talking about preparing a move to Canada or something like that.
So it really comes down to assessing the weather reports / political polling, etc., not preparing based thereon. If there were shelves I could stock or insurance I could buy or a safe house I could flee to that would alleviate the pain of a Trump win, I too would be “sensible” and do so.
(Actually, I could probably find a way to move to Japan again, but I would rather stay here and fight than flee.)
Marginally. It is perhaps more reasonable to see it as the Harris rise leveling for a minute before another temporary bump with the convention, assuming no major riot …
Here’s the thing though for those of us with guarded optimism, well I’ll speak for myself. I am expecting it to go up and down some and just as I am hesitant to get very celebratory when it is still this close in polling and still this far from Election Day, I won’t wail about disaster when there is a dip.
There were threads about that back in 2016. Anybody who wanted to do that already did.
And there’s a current thread about arming yourself should he win.
So, yeah, there are people preparing.
Not in the desperate “I’m gonna move to another country” or “I’m gonna bunker up like a survivalist” way but in what they can do within their communities for themselves and for others and how to respond after.
People don’t have to over-react like hormonal teenagers devastated after breaking up with their first crush like they just lost their forever soulmate 
nor in a such a visible way that it’s obvious to you. They can and are thinking and planning now.
Some have been doing so for years already and have been in a state of readiness. Just like some of us don’t need to do a lot of obvious, visible hurricane prep because we took care of most of that several years ago.
So, yes, cautiously optimistic for most but ready in case things take a bad turn. Just not melodramatic stuff like jumping straight to 400EVs or making plans to leave the country.
I don’t want to rain on your parade, but the Votemaster quotes recent polls showing actual ties in Mich. and Wisc. and Harris down by 8 points in Florida.
It’s all marginally, it’s a coin toss and people are acting like it’s a blowout.
A new Times/Siena poll seals the deal: the two states Harris should focus on – both of which she must win, if she loses Pennsylvania-- are AZ and NC. She’s polling really well in Arizona, and is slightly ahead in North Carolina. (She’s slighty behind in Nevada, and way behind in Georgia. What the hell, Georgia?).
The article on the poll is worth using up a gift link.
Of note she still has room to go to get to Biden 2020 levels in some target groups. Much better than Biden 2024 levels though!
All put together as a group though is that all can be thought of as in play.
Right. And where I lurk (Breitbart), when called on this stuff they say “Look, another idiot who can’t understand what Trump really means.”
For the faithful, Trump’s word salad will always be interpreted in the “right” way.
Makes sense!
I haven’t been to Breitbart in awhile, but the angry white dude fucking stupid combined with stupid white dude fucking angry in the comments was shocking in its intensity. (Actually, National Review comments are kinda the same thing, sadly…)
Yes. I am routinely amazed at the things I see there. I don’t know what % of MAGA they represent, but it’s pretty reprehensible.