Oh good! Trump has finally, finally crossed that magic line that cannot be crossed that will cause the GOP to desert him and dramatically end his campaign. At long last!
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Oh, sorry, I drifted off there into an alternate, much-better timeline. I’m back in this timeline now where…nothing has happened whatsoever, just like every other time people have predicted the imminent demise of his campaign.
In less sarcastic news, this kind of thing obviously doesn’t help Trump in any way. It certainly has the potential to turn some fence-sitters off a bit, if they see it. But unless it becomes a media obsession that dominates the news cycles for days on end and penetrates into the national psyche (like, for example, Biden’s disastrous debate), it simply is another small ripple and the Trump campaign will press on as usual.
“Trump voters” are not quite the monolith that “Trump supporters” seem to be. And considerably less so than “MAGA” or “been to multiple Trump rallies”.
There are enough “independent”** Trump voters, who “look at all sides” and “get info from all over”, so that a useful – if small in absolute terms – number can be peeled off.
** Aside: Is it me or are something like 8 out of 10 self-professed Independents pretty steady Republican voters?
This has been discussed many many times. And yes, even back into the 1970s “independent” was code for “I don’t donate, but I reliably vote R on everything.”
Cruz certainly has an advantage but I think you underestimate just how unlikable he is.
He’s won election to the Senate the first time by a solid 12-13% margin. His re-election bid? He barely beat Beto 50%-48%.
Meanwhile John Cornyn has won his Senate elections by a minimum of a 10% margin each time. And Greg Abbott beat Beto in the Governor’s race by more than 10%.
Allred is definitely still the underdog, especially with that (D) beside his name, but Ted Cruz is very beatable. His incumbency is the only thing that makes him viable.
While I don’t think Texas Republicans want to lose a Senate seat, they’ve got a massive silver lining in that they can put up a much stronger candidate the next time.
And gerrymandering doesn’t make any difference for Senate elections. Cruz is more of a hindrance to Trump, at least in Texas, than a help. The urban and suburban parts of Texas may be blue/purple but unless things go sideways, elections should still go 55-45 for Republican candidates on statewide offices. It just shows how terrible Cruz really is that he can’t even manage that.
It seems you and I are of similar mindsets. With a race as close as this one, and momentum seeming to swing Harris’ way, I’m hoping/imagining that the constant drip, drip, drip of minor developments seemingly favorable to Harris and unfavorable to Chump will just continually erode Chump’s support at the margins, and potentially encourage some marginal support for Harris.
You can say Trump supporters just watch Fox, but I guarantee you that a good percentage of them are looped into various veterans’ social media, where any perceived insult to veterans does not go unnoticed.
Yeah - these are the venal folk who will support someone like Chump because they feel it is in their personal interest, no matter what the downside will be for anyone else. I’m hoping that the end results are sufficient that it isn’t a couple of districts in 1 or 2 states that can make the difference. Because the Supremes could always pull a Bush v. Gore…
Cardillo responded to this statement by simply writing, “WHY??!!” on Twitter.
Many Trump supporters then flooded his replies with angry messages, but Cardillo didn’t back down.
“Did you even watch it?” questioned conservative J.D. Sharp.
“Yes, and it’s even worse,” Cardillo replied. “There is no context where this is remotely acceptable. It’s f------ stupid. If you want to win, stop excusing stuff like this.”
In response to another critic who said he might be misinterpreting Trump, Cardillo replied, “There is no justification for this at all. None. I don’t get what he’s trying to say.”
Not all of Cardillo’s followers disagreed with him, however.
After one of them wrote that “it’s getting harder… to believe [Trump] wants to win,” Cardillo replied by simply writing, “Seriously.”
I wish we had a pithy word along the lines of “defeatist” but conveying the meaning of “hoping for the best but expecting the worst–perhaps a bit irrationally so.” Because I see that a lot in this thread.
It’s not a stupid or, for that matter, stupid-seeming position. To the contrary, it’s risk-averse and helps prevent one from looking and feeling like a fool should things go south later. But it can lead to some arguments that go too far in the pessimistic direction.
Here are some things I see people saying (some in this thread, some elsewhere, but common) about Trump that aren’t true:
Trump never has faced consequences and never will.
Trump can and will get away with anything.
Trump supporters can never be swayed.
Trump supporters will never hear a given message.
Trump supporters only pay attention to right-wing media.
No one in the GOP will ever turn on Trump.
And, in general, talking as though Trump is more powerful than he really is.
We shouldn’t be where we are today. The GOP has betrayed America to an unforgivable extent by failing to rein in this criminal. His supporters have shown us a dark and stupid side of human nature that we’d rather not see. I get it–it totally fucking sucks.
But Trump is shedding supporters in both low and high places. I’ve provided plenty of Dope-style cites in this very thread. And I see a bunch more in articles and videos every day. Again, connect the dots as you will, but being that thing I wish there were a word for, while safe, is neither the most intellectually rigorous approach nor the most useful in achieving victory, IMHO.
I’m sure it will be Trump. But if this influencer thinks it’s indefensible then there must some of the less enthusiastic Trump supporters for whom this will be too much.
I often find myself expecting/predicting that the worse outcome will occur. If I’m right, at least I’m prepared. I don’t want to repeat how depressed I was after I felt Kerry snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. And if I’m wrong about my prediction, I can be happy about the result.
But if I expect/wish the better outcome, sure, I’m pleased if it occurs. But if it doesn’t, that sucks.
So I tend to skew defeatist just to protect my mental health. As badly as things have gone for the US under W and Chump, I remain hopeful that we still have the opportunity to maintain a generally upward trend in terms of protecting basic rights and providing an adequate safety net. Electing a competent woman of color and defeating Chump will go a good ways in continuing a positive trend, continuing Biden’s efforts free of the spectre of covid. But if Chump is elected, I’ll just lock the doors, count my retirement savings, and feel sorry for my kids and grandkids.
I lurk on a RW board and a thread was opened early this morning on Trump’s MoH comment. In the first 10 minutes, they said
I think he’s trying to lose.
His mouth got Biden elected.
His mouth is going to get Harris elected.
But, then
It’s not as bad as all that. He’s just saying it is better to be alive than dead… just in a really awkward and bad way that can be easily interpreted as anti-military…
So typical Trump. Not news.
and
Obviously he meant whomever receives the Medal of Freedom didn’t have to necessarily risk their life. It was earned under “better” circumstances.
and one I particularly liked
Trump needs to stick to policy.
Which he obviously can’t do because if he did, he’d have to start to get into specifics of his ‘policy’ and it would go down in flames.
JD Vance held a press conference in which he was asked about the MoH comment. Warning: the video is very boring:
Vance has gotten good at the bland dodge; he’s starting to tone it down from the aggro emo teen dodge. He just says (paraphrase), “Look, here’ s a president who loves our veterans,” etc.
Btw, am I wrong to think I’ve been hearing “look, comma” a lot in political speech these days? It seems as though Biden was using it every other sentence in the debate. Trump seems never to use it, but Vance et al. do. Personally, I fucking hate it. It’s as if the pols think prefacing a sentence with “look” allows them to say something with zero connection to the question while still making sense. Ugh.
But to be fair, there’s criticism that you think Trump is employing a bad strategy, and criticism that Trump is not worth supporting anymore. And I think it’s the former, not the latter that they are displaying.
It is notable that there is any criticism at all, sure, but this isn’t necessarily a sign that he’s losing followers.
