How can Donald Trump win at this point?

@Aeschines is correct, in so far that there are serious problems with Trump’s campaign. And that those problems could lead to his defeat.

But we’re not there yet, because:

The evidence does not show a collapse.

Harris is running a campaign of joy for the future; let’s not harsh the vibe. But use it to fuel the work we need to do to win.

I’ve been disappointed by the reporting on this story.
The reporters all mention his extramarital affairs with Hope Hicks and dog killer Kristi Noem and his sexual assault arrest for attacking donor Trashelle Odom. But they’ve all failed to mention his sexual assault on MAGA acolyte and singer Joy Villa.

I know it’s hard to keep up but these guys all need to work on their research

Again, this.

He definitely deserves credit for all his wonderful assaults!

This is what I find most frustrating. This fact should be shouted from the rooftops, yet I don’t hear so much as a whisper about it in any of the campaign ads I’m seeing (and I live in a swing state). We KNOW the ‘crisis’ at the border is fabricated. How? because Trump himself instructed his Senate toadies to the torpedo bipartisan legislation that would have addressed the issue. It’s clearly something he thinks the country can wait on until HE thinks he’s getting back into office. Yet another example of him putting his interests above that of the country’s.

So Trump’s medal of honor comment has made it to Newsweek today:

We’ll see what the blowback level ends up being.

I can’t imagine it’ll make the needle even stir.

It’s featured on Morning Joe as well:

We shall see. He said it yesterday evening, and this is just getting started…

Let me know when it’s featured on Fox News, Newsmax or OAN. I’ll wait.

So it can have no effect until it is? I don’t see the point.

The point is, no Trump voter will ever see this news about Trump dissing Medal of Honor recipients.

The same way no Trump evangelical voter ever heard that he does not ask God for forgiveness, because he says he doesn’t have much to apologize for.

Trump on God: ‘I Don’t Like to Have to Ask for Forgiveness’ - Business Insider

Nor would they care. They’d be a tad unhappy, but they can’t vote for Harris, so that’s the end of it.

Nope, but an undecided veteran who was leaning toward Trump might either swap to Harris or not bother to vote.

I’m not sure how many of those people there would be, and maybe not enough to matter. But I’m sure it’s more than zero.

I’m not sure what happened there, I sort of just fizzled out.

Yes, there is a sizeable blue population. The urban areas are more blue than red, but the suburbs are a bit more purple. North Texas in particular is booming, and population growth is staggering. As that trend continues, the blue grows, but the R controlled legislature is gerrymandered horribly and the blue is diluted by the lines in the map.

Colin Allred seems to have a shot at Cruz’s seat, I kinda feel like it’s Beto all over again. Sure, the Dems are excited, but any even vaguely conservative leaner is going Red on everything. There are startling few independents who vote mixed party outcomes.

That mythic potential voter is not however watching Morning Joe or reading Newsweek. Neither am I but certainly not them. Maybe they have Fox on in the background.

Some things will break through what is the background noise to these less engaged potential voters. This is not one of them.

You can believe what you choose to believe I guess. I don’t like wallowing in unreasonable pessimism.

One person realistic and glaringly obvious assessment is another’s unreasonable pessimism I guess.

To me the positive is that good messages on Harris and Walz do seem to be breaking through the background noise. Relative newness helps.

Trump not getting much attention, positive or even negative, is A Good Thing. That mythic undecided voter’s baseline is not strongly positive on Trump and their assessment of him is pretty fixed. If other news cycles haven’t made it more negative fairly little will but the undecided person already is not a fan. Continuing to make them positive about Harris-Walz matters much more.

I skipped the last ~100 posts so somebody may have already posted about this. If so, sorry for the repeat.

Reuters has released an investigative piece on trump’s de facto takeover of the R party all up and down the hierarchy. I suspect this link is free: How Trump’s intimidation tactics have reshaped the Republican Party (reuters.com).

The central message of the article applicable to this thread is there are loyalists all up and down the federal and state political hieracrchies that extend deeply into the election administration function. And there are plenty of equally loyal stochastic terrorists among the voting public.

These folks are fanatically loyal to trump. What’s good for him is what they want and that end justifies any means they might have available to help their god-king.

trump did not get too far during his first term in suborning the judiciary. But he did emplace a bunch of people like Judge Cannon, who again place loyalty to trump ahead of any semblance of upholding their job duties responsibly. I do not believe the current SCOTUS is beholden to trump specifically, but they’re certainly able to be bought and sold by other right-leaning entities.

It only takes a few hard core loyalists in the right places to create gross miscarriages of justice.


IMO that is how trump can, and may well, win.

A lot is possible. And the purpose was to flatter a big campaign contributor (who is a lot richer than DJT) by saying that her honor was the biggest. So Trump supporters will find a way to excuse it, yes.

I think the election will be determined by those in the middle, but that’s hard to prove.

I will personally ensure this is not true.