I heard a podcast this weekend where the host said something interesting. The broad consensus is that Trump has been largely unsuccessful pivoting from Joe Biden who dropped out of the Presidential race a month ago. He STILL spends a lot of time bashing Biden on the campaign trail (what little he’s done) and online, despite the fact that he’s not even a candidate anymore. The podcast suggested one of the biggest reasons that Trump is unable to make the pivot that he needs to is that his entire strategy all along was to make this election all about vindication for having the 2020 election stolen from him by Joe Biden. That’s now been completely taken away from him. He will never get his rematch and can never ‘prove’ he was robbed by beating Biden. So naturally he’s reduced now to little but throwing out generic insults (she’s a communist and a liar!). His base ordered a rematch on pay per view and he’s having to provide entirely different entertainment. They’re not happy about it, and he’s not either.
Correct on all counts. It’s just that she’s not polling great in Georgia or Nevada. That could change, but it’s likely that if she DOES start polling really well in those states, she’ll also be doing better in PA, NC, and AZ.
Upshot: it’s unlikely that GA and NV will make the difference…but it’s true that they could, and we must put plenty of get-out-the-vote efforts, advertising, a few visits, etc. in those states — just not quite as much as in PA, WI, MI, AZ, and NC. (Resources are not unlimited).
I meant to type “…addressing…”.
Good news: Nevada might not be as iffy as it heretofore appeared. It doesn’t have a lot of electoral votes, so any paths to victory that include Nevada also must include some other swing state(s)…but, if other high-quality polls confirm this in the next week, this would make me breathe a bit easier.
Sadly, it does confirm Georgia as very problematic. As I just posted minutes ago, we can’t count on Georgia as part of a path to victory (but nor should we just give up there).
It also confirms PA as a toss-up. That is most worrisome of all.
She not polling horribly in them either. On 270towin’s tracker she is no more down in them than she is up in PA. All can be considered toss ups and while systemic polling errors move, well systemically, there is still just the randomness that has one off a percent or so one way and the other in the other direction. Toss up range is toss up range. Yes PA is the more likely tipping state than GA or NV, but this is the flip side of your very valid point: we don’t know where Harris’s rise stalls, and not only in PA. The race suddenly broke out of its stuck Trump v Biden cemented numbers. It is now potentially more fluid. On the ground operations will matter more too, independent of polling. Enthusiasm will matter.
ETA cross post with the new poll. Yeah GA down there like it was in the NYT one is disappointing. Lose both PA and GA and you have to otherwise run the table of toss ups.
Agreed. If there weren’t such a hard floor with the God-Emperor Trump — that is, if there weren’t such an entrenched cult of personality with well-defined populations for that man — the rise in Harris’s polling could keep going until Election Day.
But mainly because of that cult (others, mistakenly in my view, ascribe this to a both-sides-ist “polarized era”), the rise WILL plateau.
As you noted, this happens in some states later than in others. It’s unfortunate that it may have already plateaued in Pennsylvania, but thankfully still hadn’t yet in Nevada. We’ll see — one poll does not a trend prove.
For better or worse, “the polls” aren’t really hard math anymore once they get reported in the popular media. Similar sets of polling data can be interpreted in wildly different ways, chiefly in decisions about what to emphasize and what to minimize (or even omit).
Another popular tactic is to take one individual poll, lift it above all the others, and proclaim (essentially) “This poll is the one truth and the light and the way! This poll conclusively predicts the future! All has changed since this poll came out!”
The very recent reporting of “Oh no! Harris is conclusively done for in Pennsylvania!” came in response to the release of ONE Emerson poll this past Friday that showed Trump leading in Pennsylvania by one percentage point (or, slanted liberally, “statistically tied” in a poll with a margin of error of 3%). In the week before that Emerson poll, Harris had rolled off a few +3s (Quinnipiac, Franklin & Marshall) and +4s (Bullfinch, NYT/Siena).
But the reporting has not been that Emerson’s result could be an outlier against the other four Harris-plus polls and thus needs more polling to back up and confirm a new, sudden trend against Harris in Pennsylvania. Instead, the lone Emerson poll was accepted immediately as the “new truth” about where “the polls” stood in Pennsylvania.
Now, let me rip my own argument to shreds: Since Emerson and the onset of the “Harris is done in PA” coverage, one more Pennsylvania poll has come in at Trump +1 and another at Harris +1. Worth keeping an eye on for sure to see how the trend continues to move. Note that FiveThirtyEight and Silver Bulletin both have Harris still up in Pennsylvania – though, yes, still a statistical tie in both.
I agree with your post — but this is the first time I’ve heard any mention of “Harris is done in PA coverage.”
Did any pollster, polling analyst, news reporter, or opinion columnist say anything like this?
If so, I agree that would be as ignorant as saying she’s sure to win the state.
In my opinion, you don’t have to say it to say it. I think a lot of coverage is content meant to steer (ever so gently) their audience to think about something in a certain way – they can even credibly say “C’mon – we didn’t say THAT!” after the fact. But they’re content all the same for their audience to come away from their coverage … thinking things that were unsaid, but follow logically from the content of their coverage.
Saying that “Harris has lost ground in PA” or “Harris is slipping in PA” or similar, IMHO, is meant to convey “Harris can’t and won’t win in PA and that’s know for sure right now”. It would be trivial to take the exact same poll numbers and create honest headlines about Trump being in trouble: “PA: Trump fails to pass Harris in the aggregate”. “Trump loses six points in PA since Biden dropped”. “Pundits Silver, Morris have Harris ahead in PA going into Chicago”
Others mileage may vary.
You’re right, my mileage varies. I take, say, “lost ground” to mean “lost ground” (though this particular headline wouldn’t be quite factually accurate. Her rise in PA is stuck at effectively 50/50, while it has continued to rise in several other states — so PA has fallen behind only in a relative sense).
The only accurate, factual observation at this time is some variation of “PA continues to be a toss-up. If it stays a toss-up until November, by definition Harris could easily lose PA. If she does, she’ll need to win a combination of other purple states to win it all. At this time, her best chances for that appear to be North Carolina, Arizona, and perhaps Nevada (and maybe Georgia, though only if polling there improves rather dramatically, which is unlikely.).
Also, Wisconsin and Michigan are still in play for Trump. Harris must not neglect these two states entirely. However, IF polling there stays where it is now (or improves yet further), she can be fairly confident to win both. But the ground game will still matter there.”
Yeah. It seems to be a variant of the mindset that says a 60% forecast is declaring a sure thing win and a forecast of 40% is saying a sure loss.
Meanwhile those who just say favored or not in a toss up range is toss up range and neither is time to either celebrate or panic just sit with pretty much the same anxiety we’ve had. Not much more.
And specific to this thread. How can Trump win. By winning PA NC and GA.
Nailed it.
It’s a good thread but surely we can agree that the thread’s title seems a little odd at this point and the OP is a Pollyanna statement. Trump can obviously win.
Actually, I don’t think that. I think all of the solid red states will go to Trump, solid blue to Harris, and we’ll be fighting over swing states per usual.
Of course, I understand the importance of PA. But I hadn’t heard “oh fuck oh fuck PA oh fuck!” in my particular iteration of the echo chamber.
I mean, if after all the shit that’s happened the country chooses* Trump, then that would be, IMHO, a really weird outcome.
*If electing him via the Electoral College while he loses the popular vote can be said to be “choosing.”
Weird as that outcome would be it is still entirely possible. We are over 2 months out from Election Day. That is too much time for it to be considered a done deal that Trump loses.
Because of the wack-a-doodle running as the R candidate for governor in NC, I am more hopeful than normal that could be a pick up for Harris. I’m not counting on NV or GA at this point so if Trump takes PA then NC and AZ become crucial for a D win. That’s cutting things too close for my comfort.
Fair enough (and Kolak_of_Twilo is right on, too).
That’s why I encouraged you (and anyone) to do the math yourself. No echo chambers, no conventional wisdoms…just you (and a healthy set of recent — but not just yesterday’s or today’s — poll numbers).
ETA: Ha! Salon will do nicely.
Well, here you go: echo chamber penetrated:
All the attention is going to be on the Democratic Convention in Chicago this week but it’s pretty clear that for the next few weeks, the center of gravity in American politics is going to be in Pennsylvania. All the strategists and political pundits tell us that both the Harris and the Trump campaigns see it as a must-win and according to the latest polls, it’s a tight race there. Already both candidates and their running mates have held events in the Keystone State, with no doubt many more to come.
Parton is not positive about how Trump is doing, however…
I love that you consider a Salon article as “penetrating the echo chamber.”
Well, it’s part of my echo chamber but I had’NT (yes, meant this) heard PA emphasized in that way there yet.
I took it to mean that Aeschines was self-deprecatingly describing their own particular echo chamber, which happens to be centered on Salon (and supposedly several similar outlets of news and analysis).
We each have ‘em.
ETA: Ninja’d by the Attic orator himself. 
(I think he meant “…hadn’t heard…”)