I have a hard time imagining anyone who followed American politics at all over the past ten years or so not understanding the importance of Pennsylvania in the presidential election. It’s like being needing to have someone penetrate your bubble to tell you that the electoral college exists.
Of course I knew, but I had not heard anyone from our side say something like, “Things might seem to be looking good overall, but, actually guys, we might be fucked because of PA.”
True…but, to be fair, in 2016 and 2020, Wisconsin and Michigan were equally as critical as Pennsylvania, and were treated as such in most serious news and opinion.
The difference this time is that, in polling over the last three weeks or so, WI and MI have nudged cautiously toward “looking pretty good for Harris,” while PA has gotten stuck at “truly a toss-up.”
So, PA has always been important, but right now it’s looking even more important (i.e., more likely than the others to fuck things up, as Aeschines might put it) than before.
I think this is the best summary of the point you’ve provided thus far.
Thanks. (Okay that, on edit, I spiced up the verbiage a bit?).
Yeah, rawkin’!
I think the contrast with the other two states helps. Why is PA lagging? What’s going on there?
And maybe it will pop back up, or maybe not.
Excellent question.
Yup.
Isn’t that being said by like every other poster in this thread?
He meant “hadn’t heard in Salon and a few other news and analysis sources I like to read.”
Yeah, the spin I’ve been seeing has been very positive. Not, “It’s gonna be a blowout!” level positive. But positive.
This kind of positive:
Interesting. Let’s hope they leaven their giddiness with a bit of real concern, and their readers convert both into action.
I think Harris will win the popular vote and Trump will with the electoral college.
Or just win Florida.
Very unlikely, based on recent (and not-so-recent) polling. If Harris wins Florida, it’s because there’s been a true implosion of Republican voters nationwide — unlikely, but possible — and then she will obviously have won PA, WI, AZ, NC, NV, and possibly GA, so Florida won’t have mattered.
You forget one thing- Florida will have Abortion on the same ballot. This has been disastrous for the MAGAs every time, it brings out a slew of women who dont always vote. And all of the newish voters tend to vote against the GOP.
That’s true. The abortion measure will surely help Harris.
I hope you’re right! I’ve just been burned so many times by that fuckin’ state, I don’t want to get my hopes up. (And, its multiple media markets makes it expensive to advertise there).
But it could happen, sure.
Not likely, but it could happen, and the real GOP (not the MAGA part) must be worried about it.
Let’s hope they’re worried enough to spend a bunch of cash on advertising and GOTV that would have otherwise been spent in PA, NC, WI, etc. (and that the Dems are smart enough to abstain from following suit).
The RNC is now a wholly owned trump subsidiary- they exist to pay his bills and elect him, and they are doing poorly.
The Dems should run just enuf ads to make people know that banning abortion (which is hugely unpopular) is 100% trumps fault.