Funny typo!
Future historians with only scattered data may assume this was true in 2016… 
Ooops! thanks.
That headline needs some more rhyming. The ballots are mailing, the Rs are trailing, the Ds are nailing, the GOP is failing.
As someone pointed out in another thread, Harris is doing worse in the polls than Hilary was on this date in 2016. So we already know how Trump can win, same way as last time.
FWIW, the Votemaster has Harris up 50-48 in PA. That is a statistical tie, but it is still better to be up than behind. The trouble with GA is that there has been a massive deregistartion campaign in the black counties. The pubs know that if every eligible voter votes they can’t win.
I think the debate will be crucial. If you think Biden looked demented in the first debate, wait till he meets his master. If she calls him a loser for not conceding the last election, he is likely to have a fit of apoplexy. Of course, I predicted that Trump would blow up in the last debate, so what do I know?
I just still don’t get it. All of the pundits are saying that the Republicans are running a great campaign but Trump refuses to go along. He seems to be actively trying to lose, aggressively courting his base and offending everyone else and yet the race is still tied. I can see him having a chokehold on the MAGA faithful but that isn’t 50% of the voters. How is he still getting half the voters? If he were a halfway decent candidate he would be winning in a landslide and it makes no sense to me.
Trump’s getting something less than half in 2024’s national polling to date. This calendar year, he’s vacillated between 44.5 and 48.1% of poll respondents according to RealClear Polling (538 and Silver Bulletin aggregate many of the same polls, with similar results). His average for the year is around 46.5%.
That might seem close enough to half to not be worth nitpicking over. But this is an election that’s going to hinge on small percentages.
For comparison’s sake: Biden never broke past 46.7% at any point this year. Harris is already at 48.1% and likely moving upwards. For better or worse, these are national numbers, not swing-state numbers.
About half of Americans are fascists.
it is not nearly enough for Trump to lose. His very ideas and way of life must lose so bigly that people are ashamed to mention them.
And beyond.
But now it isn’t the hypothetical trump on the ballot, it’s the real trump, with a real record in the presidency.
There will be no Comey memo. Harris has learned not to make the strategic errors that Clintons campaign did. And altho sure, there are plenty of lies and hate spread by the GOP and the Kremlin, they started later, and there is no hate coming from inside her own party.
Of course trump can still win- but not the same way as last time.
trump is insane, and the race is slightly in Harris favor.
I would give Trump about 30% of the country as irredeemable fascists but it’s the other 15% I don’t get. I can see them voting the party line for any other candidate but Trump is clearly unhinged.
… whilst being sufficiently attracted to those notions that in the isolation of the polling booth they push the button with his name on it.
Yup and a lot of Americans liked what they saw.
We might find that distressing, but it’s true.
And a lot more have been lied to continuously for the last 4 years about how much worse things are today than they were in Aug 2020. And a lot of people have bought into those lies.
To be fair (and I loathe being fair to Trump or the R’s), Aug 2020 is not really the comparison point. Yes, the pandemic is an event that had real consequences to American life and the economy. Yes, Trump was a disaster in responding to the crisis. I certainly don’t think much of any part of his response save pushing for a vaccine.
But that shutdown was not Trump’s fault, and any President should have done the same. The economic impacts in late 2020 were largely a result of global supply chain issues.
The proper comparison point and the one most Americans use is pre-pandemic.
Pre-pandemic things were better economically for a lot of people. Especially since prices first took a hit due to pandemic scarcity, then post- pandemic scarcity, then inflation from the combine effects of the pandemic and invasion of Ukraine.
Now people who actually look at the economy can explain that Biden has done a remarkable job recovering from the economic issues I listed, whereas Trump’s proposed policies would not have been as successful.
And analysts can show how Obama/Biden recovered us from the recession and put the upward trajectory on the economy that Trump inherited. But low information voters only know the status, not the causes and effects; and that status is assigned to the sitting President.
So Biden has led two recoveries while Trump squandered the first and strongly contributed to the need for the second. But “republicans are better for the economy”.
IMHO, if we can just get him out of there, it might be to our advantage for people to cling to Trump and Trumpism for awhile. If Trump does not succeed this time, he will never be able to run again,* but he will be running his mouth and fucking things up until he dies. Even if the GOP tries to move on from him, a certain segment will still want him. Trumpism will die a slow, painful death, and the GOP might do the same.
*Trump is in terrible shape right now, and even if he is alive in 2028, I do think that even he will think he has the strength to run.
Did you leave out a ‘not’ in this phrase? ("I do not think that…)
But I agree with your post. If he loses, he’ll keep babbling until he can no longer babble. And the party, such as it is, will be torn between listening to him and leaving him behind.