This is also why I don’t think your attitude is harmful. People should be excited about the outcome of the election. It will get them talking to their friends and neighbors. It will spread her support.
The key is to keep that momentum through voting day.
That, in my opinion, is why Comey’s little last minute speech in 2016 was so devastating. Even amongst supporters it was one of those “here we go again” moments, where it’s just exhausting having to explain the details of a scandal to defend your side. It put a damper on whatever enthusiasm she had.
Obviously, there might be some October surprise that could deflate the Harris campaign. But it’s odd to fixate on some disaster that may never arise.
For now, it’s full speed ahead.
Harris is going to win this thing. Convincingly. And I’m going to help.
Not only “could be”, but absolutely will be. But the events that have been happening so far have been almost entirely damaging to Trump – Harris’ strong campaign so far, a perfectly executed convention, a new book out by Gen. McMaster, Trump’s former national security adviser, that absolutely excoriates him, similar statements by long-serving chief of staff John Kelly, and Trump’s own increasingly erratic behaviour, just to name a few. Yes, the optimism here must be tempered; it should be “cautious optimism”, but things are moving in the right direction.
All of this is an indiciation that Trump lacks the will to win. He lacks the discipline necessary to stick to policy during speeches as he cannot help but opt instead for cheap sound bites in the form of third grader insults. i.e. He doesn’t have the self-restraint to hold off on instant gratification in order to achieve a long term goal.
Trump is a prime example of the right person being in the right place. His schtick really worked well for him in 2016, and I can kind of see why even if it disgusts me, he had momentum in 2020 (but not enough), and it’s finally wearing thin for even his supporters.
Thanks for clarifying so specifically the changes in the law since 2020.
I wish I shared your optimism. It’s a part of the not-wholly-rhetorical stance of MAGA that if they lose this election, a bloody civil war is preferable to living under the tyranny of Harris-Walz, and at least two Justices are, in my view, MAGA stalwarts who are capable of persuading the other four near-MAGA stalwarts of their apocalyptic vision. So I don’t find your steps 2-5 so improbable, and I’m certain that Trump views it as his last-ditch plan to gain the White House.
Aides to former Donald Trump are reportedly trying to get the former president off the golf course and onto the campaign trail.
But as his family visits his Bedminster, New Jersey golf course in August, the president seems to prefer hitting the links and appeared bored during a press conference at the course earlier this month. He didn’t seem too pleased about attending a fundraiser with donor Miriam Adelson either, The Washington Post reports.
In public, he mentioned remaining at home during the Democratic National Convention, declining to take on Vice President Kamala Harris in the fight for the next news cycle.
I was going to post pretty much this exact same thing verbatim. With the addition that in 2016 the effect of this was exacerbated by the mistaken belief that Clinton’s win was a fait accompli so if you were a Sanders supporter who didn’t really good about voting for her you could stay home without consequence.
The shy Trumper’s no longer need to be shy, supporting a racist, lying narcissist is nothing to be ashamed of in today’s America, and I think the people who say they are going to vote for Harris are actually going to show up.
As far as disaffected Democrats I think in 2016, there were a lot of Bernie supporters who might answer polls to say that they are going to vote Democrat but ultimately decided to stay home. This time around I think the issue is pro Palestinian supporters who I think are more likely to voice their opposition to Harris in polls but who may ultimately see the writing on the wall and do the right thing once election day.
I’m not saying its a lock for Harris but as with others in this thread I am cautiously optimistic and not seeing the fact that Clinton was polling better at this point in the race as an indication that Harris will lose.
I started a thread here a few years back that asked exactly what Trump thought would happen if Mike Pence refused to certify and the GOP was able to steal, at least nominally, the election. It was a fairly interesting, if inconclusive, discussion.
The thing that is pretty clear from 2021, however, is that Trump was dumb enough to think that Democrats would just say, “Shucks, you got us!” and let Trump continue on. That definitely would not have happened, IMO.
Same thing in 2024. Trump is still stupid. But what about the SC? If they tried to hand power back over to Trump in a blatant steal, we would be, instantly, in a civil war. At the very least, it would be a constitutional crisis that would take months to resolve. The SC is smart enough to see that this is, at the very least, a distinct possibility.
Trump would never reach the White House. Not the White House of an intact country.
You and I are going round and round here, basically agreeing but viewing the final disposition of this Supreme Court differently. You seem to be saying that it is impossible for them to decide to choose civil war over Trump losing, while I am saying (especially after their crazy decision to grant Trump his Presidential immunity) that it’s barely possible that they will opt for a civil war in that circumstance. (“Civil War” might be overstating it, but an unprecedented existential constitutional crisis covers it.)
If they do come to their senses and find a way to deny him the White House, the one thing we can all be certain of is that he will make their decision the ultimate stab in the back “after all I did for them.”
Yeah, I mean, I think the SC has already pretty much destroyed itself as an institution, so maybe at this point they would just say, “Fuck it.” I think they wouldn’t, but, considering the current reality, it’s not an unreasonable thing to imagine.
I’m under no illusions that MAGAts read at all, but popular books with important new information tend to create buzz in the news which even MAGAts will eventually hear about, even if Fox refuses to cover it.
I think this captures the MAGA mindset very well. And Tim Walz also captured it very well when he said (paraphrased) that he was accused of being a radical Marxist because he advocated programs to ensure that schoolchildren were well-nourished so they could concentrate on their studies and become well educated, and advocated for the right of women to have autonomy over their own reproductive rights.
Trump can win if this kind of evil and the darkness of ignorance is sufficiently pervasive in the American zeitgeist. And maybe it is. I guess we’ll find out in just a couple of months.
That’s what a couple of us have been pointing out, and getting handwaved away with “fellas, we can relax… it’s in the bag already, and it’s just a matter of how badly she’s going to kick his ass”.
And neither I nor anyone else has pushed back on “cautious optimism” - we’re just pointing out that it’s still mid-fucking-August so it might just be a little early to call it over.
And the number of silent lurkers who now won’t even vote because “some guy on the internet convinced me that it’s already a done deal” isn’t in the millions. But I’d bet any amount of money that it’s greater than zero.
