So ‘cautious optimism’ (and I’d place myself in that camp) is calling the election over?
Don’t think so. Not in my house, and not here on the Dope.
An interesting view on what the main candidates thought was important at their respective conventions.
While it’s true that’s there’s virtually nothing that trump could do to alienate his rabid base, he is slowly pissing off other groups he needs supporting him. There’s probably no way those groups will go to the Democratic Party instead, but they might stay home.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/24/trump-abortion-reactions-00176276
Trump’s pledge to be ‘great for women and their reproductive rights’ angers advocates
> The former president invoked language more commonly used by Democrats, and anti-abortion advocates quickly took notice of his tonal shift.
Kristan Hawkins, president of Students for Life Action, said on X that the Truth Social post had “understandably upset many within the pro-life movement.” National Review editor Philip Klein wrote that, in the battle over abortion, it “increasingly looks like Trump is joining the other side.”
In an interview earlier this week, Trump said he would not use the Comstock Act to ban mail delivery of abortion drugs, something anti-abortion advocates had pushed for.
As Aeschines observes, please kindly direct us to such cavalier handwaving. What little “bragging” I have seen has pretty clearly represented emotional responses to specific speeches/reports/polls, rather than any effort at presenting a legitimate argument/position.
Here’s something to consider: the timing of when votes are cast. If either candidate is campaigning in a State the day before mail-in voting opens, they can ‘lock in’ a greater number of motivated voters.
While I’m confident Trump ‘sprinting to November’ and doing two States a day isn’t going to last, going for the mail-in votes seems like a sound strategy.
Eh, I’m not sure about that. The ‘day before mail-in voting opens’ is the day before mail-in ballots are mailed to the voters, which is anywhere from 18 to 50 days before the election. And they aren’t due until election day. Campaigning in say, Pennsylvania the day before the ballots might be received doesn’t strike me as getting much of an edge, especially because a voter in PA has to request a mail-in ballot, as is true in most states.
Now, campaigning in a state just before early in-person voting opens does sound like a viable strategy.
Reasonable points, thanks. I don’t know much about how mail-ins work (non-American) so good to learn a bit more.
As with so much in the U.S., it varies wildly by state. 
I would agree I haven’t seen any posts that I recall from friend our Aeschines that fit that category.
However there are only 1, maybe 2 posters I have seen who have stated they still feel DJT is guaranteed a win and that the rest of us are buffoons for thinking otherwise.
My take is that our friend Aeschines has labeled those of us suggesting it is too early to dance in the end zone as doom and gloomers also.
YMMV but that unbridled confidence may be what Win_Place_Show is reacting to.
Republicans disproportionately vote on Election Day. So if a Harris was to campaign in Pennsylvania the final weekend, she’ll mostly be reminding Republicans to vote.
This is a good example of how Trump can win — Harris can be overexposed.
Her team may actually understand this. One reason she may be avoiding giving extended interviews — and will not give a lot of them during this campaign — is avoidance of overexposure.
Trump of course loves overexposure. But his is a different track from Harris; he does not need as many popular votes to win.
I have not seen that AT ALL here. Mostly guarded optimism.
Yeah, i do not know where he got that.
Ahem.
Congrats -one poster, 1270 some odd posts ago. There’s always one.
Biden’s decline had been publicly apparent for some time.
In my state we are all automatically sent mail-in ballots (though there are drop boxes as an alternative to putting in the mail). I never, ever vote immediately after getting the ballot. I take my time and do some research (particularly for non-partisan elections and initiatives) before filling it out and mailing it.
I expect it’s pretty rare for anyone to send in a mail-in ballot immediately after receiving it. One of the biggest selling points for that kind of voting is that it gives voters plenty of time to fill out ballots and not just a brief time as in-person voting does.
Not at the level that he displayed in the debate.
The fact is that yes, it was apparent that Biden was obviously getting old and showing the signs of it – no one disputes that. The point being made here is that his performance at the debate was extraordinarily and shockingly weak. It was weak at a level that no one anticipated. As I’ve said before, he sounded like death warmed over.
Exactly.
So I’m not just posting every fucked up thing that Trump says or does; if I did, I could literally make a dozen such posts a day. Even more on certain days. But this is really weird and disturbing:
He posts an incomplete blurb on Twitter that is full of gibberish:
These are great patriots who work their hearts out to have a Strong and Powerfulnnz Border, only to be harassed by Border Czar Kamala Harris, who wants the
Then he deletes it, but it’s shown in the video at 3:20. If he wanted to say something, why wouldn’t he just edit it or replace it? And what the fuck could he possibly be talking about here? The wingnuts accuse Harris of ignoring the border, not interfering directly with agents. I guess we’ll never know.
The issue here isn’t that the tweet is particularly nasty or anything–it’s unfinished and means nothing. It’s that he is totally losing his mental function. And we know that Trump doesn’t drink or do drugs; otherwise, I’d suspect him of tweeting while wasted.
He is crumbling at a very rapid pace.
You’re being kind.
How can Trump win? Now that the game has changed, it seems to me that his tried-and-true third-grade name-calling isn’t going to work any more. No more “Sleepy Joe,” no more “losers and suckers,” and the like. His fans may love it, but the only way that Trump can win now is on policy, because that’s what Harris is going to concentrate on.
And we need specifics. Trump can no longer rely on his “in two weeks” dodge, because the American electorate is wise to that. “I’ll build a wall.” Okay, Mr. Trump, with what? How much will it cost? Who will pay for it, and how? “I’ve got a great plan for health care.” Okay, Mr. Trump, what is it? If you don’t have it now, we’re pretty sure that you won’t have it in two weeks, based on past performance.
Trump strikes me as one who has never liked discussing policy, mainly because he (IMHO) has no idea how to formulate it, and if by some chance, he does, he has no idea how to implement it. But if he wants to win this one, he’s got to have some coherent and reasonable policy that coalesces into something more than sound bites that play well with his base. He’s got to have solid plans. To his credit, he has advisors who can help him with this, but the challenge then becomes making him listen to those advisors and not go off-script.
I think that Trump can win, under circumstances that he may not like, but that he will have to work within if he is to have a chance. Stay within those, and he’s fine. Stray outside of those, Donald, and you do so at your peril.
Well said!
About potentially pivoting on policy (alliteration intended?), MulderMuffin posted above about Trump’s brilliant new support for women’s reproductive rights. Yeah, that’s going well!