How can Donald Trump win at this point?

[Irishman]

@OldOlds

The Dems have also been forever reimagined. They are now the party of the Acela corridor. Wealthy, educated, AND socially liberal.

(Snip)

My point is that the ways in which the Democratic party will change are not yet fully worked out.

It’s true the Dem Party is in flux. It almost has to be of the Rep Party is in flux.

I don’t think your categorization is a fair description of the party as a whole.

I’ve never seen that “Acela Corridor” label before. It’s a geographic reference based on a train line. Ok. I’ve previously heard it described as the “Bos-Wash corrodor”, based on the cities involved.

@OldOlds

Maybe, but it’s been a thing since at least 2016. They are generally described as affluent, socially liberal, and fiscally conservative. I probably count as one, and most that I know can easily vote for a Baker or Hogan Republican.

Seem to fit under the Stressed Sideliners under that Pew Research link.

@OldOlds

In times past, college educated and successful voters tended far more Republican than now. Furthermore, I have a lot of union members in my family, and they are moving towards Trump (even if their leadership is not).

I dispute that college educated skewed more Republican in the last 20 years. I will accept that wealthier voters skewed rep, and usually those are college educated, but that doesn’t mean all college educated skew that wealthy. Middle class is middle class.

As for the “working class” moving Republican, I think that’s an effect of the perception that liberals are “anti-redneck”, and the embracing of the rural working class by the Reps. Those people skewed conservative anyway because of religion and racial identity and perception of fiscal responsibility.

Solidarity of the working class combined with feeling the Dems were shifting away from them drew urban working class.

@Czarcasm

I thought that you wanted officials to do all they can, transportation included, to get people to vote, and they weren’t. I can see where officials might refuse to provide transportation for fear of being accused of favoring one type of voter over another, or left-wing neighborhoods over right-wing neighborhoods. There is no way to provide official transportation without that type of argument being brought.

I think the intent wasn’t county government officials, but Dem party officials. Certainly wouldn’t want elected officials catering to one party.

@Saint_Cad

So I wonder if there will be Republican voters that don’t want Harris or Trump but will vote Trump/Vance and hope that sooner rather than later we get President Hillbilly.

Is Vance liked enough on his own for that? He’s basically hand-picked by uberrich man Peter Thiel. I suppose they could be holding their nose voting for the R candidate and hoping anyone R would replace him.

@Gozu

Somehow, thanks to the Electoral College, he was winning against an honest civil servant, despite…

Yes, every bit of that. That is the most frightening part of all this, how horrible, terrible, hated he is and yet he’s still somehow running even. That’s sad for our country.

@Great_Antibob

Of course, it’s factually untrue, but that part is unimportant. The real question is whether or not they get any more traction from it than anything else they’ve tried so far. Seems like maybe not, at least outside the MAGA bubble,

Could be. I want her to stress the idea of how to help Americans without getting to caught up in the weeds, but that could backfire with the “it’s unrealistic, you can’t pay for it, that’ll never work” counter. But she certainly can campaign on joy and policy.

[DrDeth]

@Stratocaster

I’ve read where dementia is one of the few defects where a diagnosis is primarily based on observation.

Dementia - Diagnosis and treatment - Mayo Clinic

Google says No, you can’t diagnose dementia without an examination by a health care professional. A diagnosis is made by combining a number of tests and assessments with a review of your medical history and symptoms. The professional may also ask someone close to you about your symptoms.

Some tests that may be used include:

** Physical and mental status exams*
** Neurological exams*
** Cognitive and functional assessments*
** Brain imaging: This can include MRI, CT, or PET scans, which can show if blood vessels are damaged or which parts of the brain are shrinking.*
** Cerebrospinal fluid or blood tests: These can include biomarker tests, which measure what’s happening in your body and can help track disease progression.*

But since they are medical experts, I will certainly accept “possible signs of dementia”.

[Chingon]

If you maintain the the position that Trump is clearly showing signs of dementia, but anyone claiming the same about Biden was a political hack, well then I don’t see you as a serious person.

[Czarcasm]

If one has dementia the other must also have dementia?
I don’t think the world works that way.

[Hari_Seldon]

I was one of the people who predicted that Trump would have a meltdown at the debate with Biden, so take what I say with a grain–or boulder–of salt.

Nonetheless, I predict that Trump will have a meltdown in a debate with Harris. Especially, if she says something like, “Why can’t you admit that you lost the last election, loser?” I don’t think he can accept the appellation “loser”.

The second thing that will drive Trump nuts is when the Fed lowers the interest rate. He will go off the deep end accusing them of meddling in the election. Maybe he will invent a rule that they can’t change the rate during an election campaign.

I also wanted to comment on Trump’s Wharton diploma. Yes it is possible to make a big enough donation to get omitted. I had a cousin whose father made a substantial donation to get his son admitted to Wharton and another to get him into Penn law. Who then turned into a wealthy ambulance-chasing lawyer. But I digress. I don’t believe that you can bribe professors to get your degree. One professor, maybe another. But I believe that nearly all professors would refuse and some would blow the whistle on any attempt. Certainly that’s what I would have done. But pay a student to take exams for him? Eminently possible.

[Czarcasm]

According to Wiki, he transferred to the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, graduating in May 1968 with a Bachelor of Science in economics. In 2015, Trump’s lawyer threatened Trump’s colleges, his high school, and the College Board with legal action if they released his academic records.
Gosh, I’d be proud, too.

[DrDeth]

@Chingon

If you maintain the the position that Trump is clearly showing signs of dementia, but anyone claiming the same about Biden was a political hack, well then I don’t see you as a serious person.

If a couple of respected medical experts/specialists say Biden is showing signs, I will respect their opinions. And you might note- I had caveats.

Not the NYT or any posters here.

[PhillyGuy]

@Hari_Seldon

I had a cousin whose father made a substantial donation to get his son admitted to Wharton and another to get him into Penn law.

It was not hard to get into Wharton undergrad when Trump did. Liberal Arts was harder, but still nothing like today.

@Hari_Seldon

But pay a student to take exams for him? Eminently possible.

As a class of 1977 history major, I say nope. With a few exceptions, classes were small.

Trump would have mostly been in upper level classes in a less popular major (real estate).

Re the second hand story of the prof who said Trump was the dumbest student he ever had, previously linked: Context here is that before grade inflation (only in the earliest stage when Trump attended), students sometimes flunked. And Trump graduated on time. So Trump was not the dumbest from a pure academic perspective.

My evidence-free guess is that Trump was the dumbest in his classroom discussion comments. Maybe he defended racial discrimination and/or stiffing suppliers as a good way to make money in real estate.

This illustrates how Trump can make terrible dumb statements, without dementia, and without spoiling his chances of victory.

[Chingon]

This thread is an excellent example of how social media sucks people into vortices of misinformation that only supports their preconceived notions. It shows that even “smart” people are vulnerable to the siren call of dopamine hits.

[flurb]

@Aeschines

@flurb

I don’t think he is to the level of drooling decrepitude that you’re seeing.

In this thread, several people have enjoyed creating quotes and descriptions that I haven’t used and that mischaracterize what I have actually said.

Fair enough – I may have overestimated what you intended to convey with phrases like, “he is totally losing his mental function,” and “he is crumbling at a very rapid pace.” But to be fair, sometimes your rhetoric can make it hard to gauge where you really are.

[The_Other_Waldo_Pepper]

@Hari_Seldon

I also wanted to comment on Trump’s Wharton diploma. Yes it is possible to make a big enough donation to get omitted.

I gave them no donation, but they omitted me anyway.

[Aeschines]

Feel free to support your contention with specifics. Trump is down in the polls and is mess. What’s the misinformation?

[Saint_Cad]

@Czarcasm

In 2015, Trump’s lawyer threatened Trump’s colleges, his high school, and the College Board with legal action if they released his academic records.
Gosh, I’d be proud, too.

Do you have a cite? Wouldn’t releasing his records be a FERPA violation?

[Aeschines]

The thing is, my descriptions only seem like an exaggeration because we are used to Trump’s supporters and the GOP agreeing to back him up no matter what.

Let’s pretend Trump was a nice, normal guy and the only issues with his candidacy were his age, physical symptoms, and cognitive symptoms. He’d still be a completely unqualified candidate for president. The only reason he can run despite these impediments is that, well, he’s Trump.

As almost a historical accident, our side was running an octogenarian who was, in his own right, unqualified due to age and infirmity. One reason this was a strategic blunder is that it gave cover to Trump’s physical decline, since he only had to look better than Biden.

[Aeschines]

OK, there are endless gaffes and fuckups to report from Trump and Vance, but I will keep my notes today simple

Dems shrugged off the whole RFK Jr. endorsement, and it seems to have had no impact on the race. As we know, the news cycles moves quickly (viz the assassination attempt), and poor Bobby seems forgotten already. There is speculation, however, that he could replace Vance on the ticket. I mean, go ahead, lulz. That’ll fix things. (In any case, I think Trump’s window for gaining anything from firing Vance has closed.)

And you may have heard about this:

In anti-Trump letter, 230 former GOP staffers say "we’re voting for Vice...

In another article, Heather Digby Parton says that Republicans coming out against Trump gives yet other Republicans cover to do so. That’s what could lead to a complete implosion, in which suddenly everyone has given up on Trump’s campaign at once, including the talking heads at Fox. Fox’s motivation is still to defend their God-Emperor, but if things get much worse, they may head into CYA territory and start working on post-Trump survival.

I think it’s plausible that a complete collapse is imminent. Not, of course, guaranteed.

[The_Other_Waldo_Pepper]

@Aeschines

Fox’s motivation is still to defend their God-Emperor, but if things get much worse, they may head into CYA territory

This sentence cries out for a “New Clothes” reference.

[Horatius]

@Aeschines

In another article, Heather Digby Parton says that Republicans coming out against Trump gives yet other Republicans cover to do so.

That’s my feeling as well. When it was just Cheney and Kitzinger saying how awful Trump is, it was easy to dismiss them as a couple of RINOs, and ignore them. But as more and more Republicans come out as anti-Trump, it gets harder to just dismiss them out of hand. At some point, anyone who isn’t literally insane has to stop and ask themselves why this is happening. And every time Trump does something stupid or weird, some supporters are likely to realize that the anti-Trumpers have a point.

[Aeschines]

Verily, you state it well!

[suranyi]

@Aeschines

Trump is down in the polls and is mess. What’s the misinformation?

He’s a mess for sure, but unfortunately he’s only barely down in the polls. A couple of percentage points at most. In Pennsylvania, a critical state, he’s about tied. So overall Harris is not nearly safe enough for me to stop worrying.

[Czarcasm]

As long as someone is actually doing something positive because they are worried, I see no problem. It isn’t as if there will be a penalty if Harris gets “too many votes”…whatever that means.
Worry. Work harder because of it. Bury the bastard.
Works for me.