Agree 1000%. I think that’s why some of us have pushed back a bit on the “He’s in a death spiral folks! He doesn’t have time to recover from this stall! The stick shaker is shaking! It’s over!” tone of this thread.
I think most of us have heard other people talk about how dumb some characters in movies can be, where they start relaxing when the bad guy isn’t obviously finished yet. Or wonder how a football player can start showboating before crossing the line.
I don’t wonder that anymore. We’re seeing that sort of thing in the thread.
It’s not over until the credits roll. And sometimes not even then.
No such thing as overkill, and there’s every likelihood the swing states will still come down to a few tens of thousands of votes either way. So, to mix metaphors, stomp on the gas pedal and don’t let up until the end.
I want to win by a margin of eight thousand electoral votes.
I’d cap it at 538. No need to give anybody any reason to call shenanigans on the whole thing.
But I would like to see a popular vote margin of 100 million. That would be cool.
Trump can live…but I want those ideas buried deep in cement.
An interesting response to the National Review’s assertion Trump can win on character (i.e. by attacking Harris).
The anti-anti-Trumpers must now define Harris—and all Democrats—as evil beyond words. Otherwise, how would they explain the ghastly compromises they’ve made? How would they argue against voting to stop Trump? When other conservatives, such as noted retired federal judge J. Michael Luttig, are enthusiastically endorsing Harris, some pretty fancy dancing is required to explain why your principles are more consistent than theirs. Unfortunately, when Trump is out there raising the bar on idiocy, cruelty, and anti-Americanism every day, that dancing looks more like Raygun than Fred Astaire.
For the MAGA media soldiers—the prime-time lineup on Fox News, the talk-radio hosts, the podcasters, and others—wacky (and hideous) accusations against Harris and other Democrats about “Marxism” and “communism” and “after-birth abortions” come easily because they are aimed at people who are already addled by a steady diet of rage and weirdness. But the conservative intellectuals who once opposed Trump have been reduced to dressing up such bizarre arguments as reasonable criticisms. They often seem to be sighing heavily and regretting having to be on the same side as Trump—but that doesn’t stop them from making the risible claim that Trump and Harris are equally terrifying possibilities.
Prominent Republicans saying how awful Trump is, and sticking to that, are almost all former officials and office seekers.
Here’s a factoid telling me Trump is not collapsing:
RealClearPolitics has Trump up in North Carolina, by 0.9 percent.
And they have Robinson down by 8.7 percent.
And yet, to me, Robinson is in the same crazy lane as Trump, and Harris is as normal as Stein.
If Trump was recognized by swing voters as being unacceptable, he should be should be polling, in NC, as badly as Robinson. Swing voters are still unwilling to put Trump in the Robinson loony territory. Unless and until that happens, Trump can win.
Trump’s most recent campaigning has not necessarily done him any favors
Trump’s “genius” in 2016 was tapping into the angst and frustration of a large plurality of Americans. Now, all he can focus on are his own grievances. He’s no longer speaking to the voters.
Trump has no policy ideas of his own. Project 2025 is detestable enough that he has to pretend he isn’t beholden to it.
All he has is the ability to whine and complain. And he’s not doing a good job of that anymore.
Trump is not going to react well to the news his indictment for January 6th has been resubmitted following the appalling decision of the SC to muddy the definition of official business.
Reality check. Averaging all the polls they find reliable, they have Trump ahead in PA by 48%-47%. That’s obviously a statistical tie, but it is clear Trump is not obviously behind there. And that state will likely decide the election. If Harris cannot win there, she likely cannot win the EC.
I have seen polls saying the opposite in PA. However, these do show Trump ahead in AZ and GA. All polls are essentially statistical ties.
Which “they” do you reference here?
FWIW 538’s average in PA is currently Harris up 1.6. Yeah toss up range but on the up side of it anyway. 270towin has her up 1.3.
Anxiety inducing yes. But less than being down that much?
More FWIW: Nate Silver’s weighted poll analysis has Harris up in PA by 1.9 points. All very close, but way too soon to conclusively call Pennsylvania for Trump.
No, he couldn’t. Vance was nominated by party rules, and he ain’t quitting.
Anyway, RFK doesn’t want to be Vice President. He wants a cabinet position where he can destroy the FDA. He can campaign for Trump without being on the ticket.
I agree but for a different reason. Today, August 27, was the deadline for finalizing names on Pennsylvania ballots:
Two hours are left, but I’m thinking if it was about to happen, it would have already leaked.
Yeah, and I don’t think Trump has the energy to make big moves right now.
Oh. 538 and 270towin both have AZ and GA within 1. Both with Harris in the up side in AZ and below in GA but within 1 is definitely “tied” range. Harris and Walz campaigning in GA today.
Absolutely! Hundreds of Republicans coming out against Trump will be the thing that breaks the dam! Here are another couple of articles about it:
Over 130 senior Republican officials signing onto the effort:
500 Republican voters giving testimonials opposing Trump:
Wait, oops: those are from 2020.
Damn that dam.
From Nate Silver:
Last update: 2:30 p.m., Tuesday, August 27 : Kamala Harris leads by 3.8 points in our national polling average and would be a clear favorite in an election held today — but you can see the effects of the model’s convention bounce adjustment in why November’s result is still projected at basically 50/50. This is the period when we’d expect Harris to be at the very height of her convention bounce, and the over/under line for polls conducted during this period is something like 4 or 4.5 points; better numbers than that will tend to help her in the forecast, while worse ones will tend to hurt her.
And also way too soon to call Penn for Harris. Work, people, work! We don’t want a repeat of “oh, she’s going to win anyway, so why bother to vote”