538 still has her up 57-43:
Yeah, if 538 and Silver want to say, “Our models are meaningless this year,” I’m totally OK with that.
I have my ear to the ground for whatever new polls come in, and I have not heard good news for Trump in the past few days. We talked about a potential Silver Wave for Harris above. Any of the demographic polling sounds disastrous for Trump. Plus, his ad spend in battleground states is apparently terrible:
The price of eggs is about where it peaked in 2015, with lots of ups and downs along the way. Cite. Just eyeballing it, it seems to be basically back to a long term trend.
Donald Trump can win because he’s closer to Harris in the polls than he was to Clinton at this point. I don’t understand the narrative I see on this board about how she’s running away with it. Hopefully, she really will pull away after the debate if he has a meltdown or brain freeze or something, or maybe she’ll start pulling away as she becomes more well-known and people see that she’s actually a normal person and not an unhinged lunatic, but who knows.
I mentioned peer pressure up above, and this kos diary happened to talk about it in a really effective way, I thought:
So yeah, “R” is your life, your brand, your normalcy. “R” is the lever that all your friends, all the normal and real people pull.
It’s not North Korea: you know that there is a “D” out there. But that’s for those people who live in those cities. Not your friends. Not the real people.
And this cultural affiliation is so strong that, even a complete scumbag like Trump in max scumbag mode has a hard time degrading it. Some of the worst news about him, such as the Arlington debacle, might make it to your ears, but, oh well–no matter what, “R” is still better than “D.”
So what do I think about such people? In terms of politics, yeah, they’re ignorant, irresponsible dumbasses. Normie conformies unwilling to think for themselves. Insofar as they are truly passive and not going to Trump rallies and all that, I won’t consider them evil. But dumb? Maybe not low-IQ, but very, very dumb in the political realm.
Yes. It is a sincere belief built on decades of political myths about what each Party wants and what they do, and on lies about everything political. They’ve had 3 decades of an ever- tightening noose of an information bubble dominated by “spin”, i.e. distortions and lies.
There is a set of right-leaning voters who don’t like Trump. They find themselves with the choice of either holding their nose and supporting the R Party because the alternative is letting the scary Dems control everything, or not voting and hoping everything works out in the end.
(Swipe made that “quirks out in the end.” I almost left it.)
Absolutely, follow the money. We can’t forget that even media that we otherwise think of as impartial or even liberal are owned by very rich people. These very rich people often see the purpose of politics as perpetually cutting taxes for the wealthy to the exclusion of all other issues. The NYT, MSNBC and the like maybe dominated by writers and personalities who skew Democratic, but their corporate bosses want their media outlet to be as kind to Republicans as possible.
I believe Harris’ small lead is better than Clinton’s big lead, because:
I agree, and I will add that the situations are not remotely comparable. The fact that Harris is up in the polls at all is an incredible thing in its own right. Further, she has room to grow, whereas Trump is working hard to destroy his campaign on a daily basis. We still have the debate and Trump’s sentencing ahead.
Yeah, this guy is going to town. Harris and Walz both campaigned heavily over the weekend. Trump? Not a damn thing.
Indeed. She’s been an incredibly smart, disciplined, and emotionally/psychologically astute candidate. She is an expert in not taking Trump’s bait. How she said, “Next question,” to Dana Bash in the interview. Brilliant!
Another difference with Clinton is their campaign strategy. If Harris and Walz lose in the swing states (which is the only way they can lose), it won’t be from a lack of campaigning in those states.
This is really key, I guess.
Friends, I am looking at videos about new polls, and Trump is getting thrashed. Highly RW biased poll Rasmussen now has Harris up +1. And here’s a video about a bunch of polls if you want to get into it:
Who are you going to believe, several hundred people who answer their phones, or the hundreds of thousands of people who want to give their time and money, many of whom weren’t planning on doing either back in June?
Only if your a racist bigot to start with. They want their fears and hate somehow justified. They want to be able to crawl out from under their rocks with the other racists and bigots.
Trump just happens to be one of them. I don’t think he wanted or expected to win. But he liked the power, and then went on to get himself in so much legal trouble, he wants to win again to stay out of prison.
Oh, and vengeance and retribution. Can’t forget the stuff he enjoys. That’s pretty much his entire policy after all.
+1 is not getting thrashed it is a tie.
Not sure about that Trumpian claim of “most”, but there have been studies to be sure. Have you read many of them? They are a mixed bag. Yes some data that, no shock, less high on altruism and higher on racial resentment and resentment of “wokeness”, actually not much higher on conspiracy theory beliefs surpringly. One interesting hypothesis was based on Trump primary voters scoring higher on ratings of authoritarianism than his primary opponent supporters … but Clinton’s supporters did even more so.
Still let’s go with a higher rating on attraction to authoritarianism. That’s the fascism appeal that many here believe drives most of these voters. Interesting data buried in this Pew study, in the graphic. American voters have relatively little difference in a preference for authoritarianism between the right and the left. The group most likely to support it? The center. Not even close. Weird. But it tells us something important that Team Harris is doing right. Playing up Trump as an authoritarian actually appeals to a sizable group of the middle. It horrifies us but 37% of the center is attracted to that! Hence the efficacy of Team Harris’s approach to downplay his strong threat to our institutions, and instead focus on his being weak and weird. Don’t go out of your way to activate that positive response to a potential strongman image in voters who you might otherwise have a chance with. Play that up instead and no one additional votes against him but more do vote for him!
His priors are an even vote which translates to a Trump win, given the EC advantage. He requires that polling proves his priors wrong. 538 has a different set of priors. Both down regulate the value of their priors the closer the election gets. Both sets are punditry.
Polling alone shows a race too close to have confidence in. I’m leaning to Harris winning simply because they are running a very smart campaign.
Also- there hasnt been endless hate poured on Harris for years, including for her own party. In general the Dems are united behind her.
Next Harris will not make the strategic EC mistakes that Hillary made.
And fellow SDMBers- polls can vary , due to whatever small group is being polled. Dont freak out because one poll shows Harris pooly.
LOL, yep, well said.
And I’m leaning to a Trump win because a lot of Americans are fascists; we don’t elect presidents by who gets the popular vote, but rather a bizarre system created to make slavers feel comfortable; and we’re hoping ‘undecided’ morons make a wise decision.
Rasmussen is known as a highly biased poll favoring Trump, so the fact that they are showing Harris up is a big deal. Plus, I said “thrashed” based on the totality of polling, not just that one.
It skews conservative. You are cherry picking facts to feed your conclusions.
Thank you, that is some interesting data on authoritarianism. I do think that Harris is managing her messaging in a very cautious and intelligent way.
And a lot of Americans aren’t. Trump lost in 2020 and is currently down in the polls. Not a lot, but he’s not ahead at this point.
Even if Harris is up 3-4% nationally, obviously the Electoral College still matters. This is why Harris is wisely concentrating on winnable states, say Pennsylvania and not Ohio. I think she gained fifteen points in Nevada or something.