Which shows 4 national polls with Harris up 3 points from before and at least 5 over Trump, out of 4 polls. ABC poll has Harris 6 points over Trump. Also favoribility rankings for Harris, Walz, Trump, and Vance, with Harris and Walz up, and Trump and Vance down. Trump is down 25 points from before.
Voter enthusiasm to vote in Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia all have Dems with higher enthusiasm than Reps.
If I see cherry picking, it’s not coming from @Aeschines.
Look at that Pew study. Yes a lot are. Especially among those in the center. Go figure. But more are not. Decrease Trump’s ability to activate them by mocking him, gently. Decrease the activation of resentment by appreciating the fact that non college educated males are in fact being left behind, and offering bridges for them as well. And activate the majority who can be activated by more positive messaging. That is how Trump doe NOT win.
My first link above notes that Obama drew big crowds. But that just shows enthusiasm doesn’t stop you from winning. It doesn’t show that enthusiasm helps.
The people I know who will vote for Trump admit he is a flawed candidate — and human being. The people I know who plan to vote for Harris think she’s an excellent candidate. Despite this enthusiasm gap, Trump may still win.
Is there a cite for this besides the video? If true, this is a big deal – being up one point in Rasmussen Reports is equivalent to really being up 5 or 6 points nationally.
For those only following casually, Harris had several +5 to +7 point national polls in her favor in the days immediately after the convention. While I’ve held off on spotlighting those polls because of an assumed post-convention bounce, she got another +5 and two +4s nationally last week as well as a recent +3 nationally from Rasmussen Media Group (Scott Rasmussen’s second enterprise after founding/leaving Rasmussen Reports).
@ bordelond
Here is a cite for the Rasmussen poll:
I think we’re going to see things bounce back nicely pretty soon in PA. The positive demographic polling doesn’t square well with anemic numbers in that state.
Just a note for the house regarding references to Rasmussen:
There are two Rasmussen polls out there, both outfits founded by pollster Scott Rasmussen. Rasmussen founded Rasmussen Reports in 2003 and left the company in 2013. Rasmussen Reports continues to this day.
Shortly after leaving Rasmussen Reports, Rasmussen founded the Rasmussen Media Group, or RMG. Rasmussen is with RMG to this day. Polling aggregation websites like FiveThirtyEight normally call Rasmussen Media Group’s poll “RMG Research” to avoid confusion with Rasmussen Reports.
No kidding. What policy is Trump actually FOR? I mean, he changes his mind depending on which way the evil windmill blows. The only two policies the Republicans have now are grievance and vengeance.
Grievance, vengeance and retribution. Three policies.
Grievance, vengeance, retribution and a fanatical devotion to racists. FOUR policies.
Newsweek didn’t link back to the original poll on Rasmussen Reports’ website, and I can’t find it over there. Maybe the poll result was leaked?
RealClear Polling regularly posts and links to Rasmussen Reports’ weekly Trump vs Harris poll. I will wait for that update.
Newsweek reports 380 respondents to the latest Rasmussen Reports poll. Is that Pennsylvania only? Their national polls are always in the 1800-2000 respondent range. Something seems off.
They aren’t that great, actually. As has been mentioned in this thread, Trump tends to underperform about 4% in polls compared to how he does on Election Day, so Harris up by 3 could very well mean she’s down by 1.
Did you see **Dseid’s ** post linking to the report on what went wrong with polling in previous elections? They don’t know understand why they off, so they may or may not have fixed them.
By your implied logic, any kind of data point can be invalidated, since one can always find a case in which someone was doing better in terms of that data point but lost anyway.
Right-brain thinking is required in analyzing a race such as this. The big picture. And my own big picture, as expressed in the OP and subsequent posts, is that Trump is doing nothing right and not succeeding in any particular measure (except certain polls, but not on the whole), but he could still win by limping over the finish line with just enough support in swing states. I absolutely do not think it’s possible for him to vastly outperform the polls and blow Harris away in swing states.
In contrast, Harris could limp over the finish line in the swing states–or she could blow Trump away in them and pick up a few unexpected states as well.
What I do not buy as any type of realistic big picture is one in which Trump is doing well. He and his campaign are a shitshow right now. In 2016, they were not. Thus, trying to calibrate how he’s doing right now vis-a-vis 2016 and concluding that he’s in an every better position, etc. Nuh unh. No way.
I tried talking to my Son in Law yesterday about trump. He could see how emotional and anxious I am about this. I know he likes trump and his mother and father are fans so I don’t stand much chance of changing his mind, but I thought I’d try a different tack. I talked about the odds of trump serving his full term given his age and obesity and how that would result in a vance term.
I told him all of the horrible things vance has said about women including about IVF, which his wife wanted but could not afford. They have adopted their 3 kids and two of them are mixed race, one more obviously brown.
None of it mattered. His excuse for vance is well, he’s catholic. He doesn’t believe trump will really try to deport millions, especially not his son.
I will say this much: Nate Silver is equivocating like a m.f. right now.
His overall model numbers put Trump in front (“But it’s still a toss-up!”, Silver hedges). But then he puts out hedgesworthy of Versailles with some regularity. I guess if you put Silver in a half nelson and slammed him against his locker, he’d admit “I just. Don’t. KNOW!!!” – but that doesn’t give pause to those using his forecasts du jour as perfect oracles into November’s outcome.