He always has. As I said above, the models are not falsifiable. I don’t want to hate on him too much, as I think he does bring some insights to the table. But his model doesn’t add much value to–may even subtract from–basic poll aggregation at this point.
The models face the horns of this dilemma: if a presidential race isn’t close, then they are useless on their face, but if it is, then they are pretty much doomed to say “tossup!”
There are interesting similarities in the two parallel conversations in this thread:
“Faith-based belief in Trump as one’s savior” vs. “fact-based voting preferences” (that is, making observations about this – no one actually personally professes the former);
“Feeling-based (perhaps blind) optimism that Harris will win” vs. “fact-based recognition that this could easily go either way” (and there’s a very good chance this won’t change much , if at all, by November).
I’m not saying the Polyannas are as dumb as Trumpers. Just an interesting parallel, that’s all.
BTW, just throwing this out there, but Trump’s latest nickname for our future President is “Comrade Kamala Harris,” and I gotta say, it almost sounds like a compliment. Like she’s in the trenches, fighting revanchist, racist counter-(American) revolutionaries–which is to say, fighting for us–and we should all join her in her/our struggle and not go back.
Also, whenever I hear the fascists speak of this modern heroine as a “radical leftist,” I’m like, “Fuckin’-A. Problem?!”
In short, another Trump fail to make anything stick.
Yeah, well, to his base, it’s a Commie insult, painting her as anti-American.
Verily, but I don’t think it will have the effect he hopes it will have.
When an electorate is not very closely divided massive enthusiasm on the smaller side is certainly insufficient. 99% turnout of 33% loses to 60% turnout of 67%. What we have now though is a fairly closely divided electorate. Voters that feel meh may not bother while voters putting out signs, making donations (even small ones), etc. … are probably going to bother. The choice between voting for their nominally preferred candidate or staying home is likely the most important factor to who wins.
Don’t forget the Silver article link too. Key takeaway to my read is the “don’t know” part: it may be another 3 points Trumpward; it may be 3 points Harrisward; it may be just by chance just right. No one knows. Some have guessed as to which is more likely and some have well educated guesses, but they still don’t know. Of course I like you am scared it could be three in Trump’s favor but I disagree with your confident surety that it will be.
I agree it could be anything, it could be accurate, it could under report Harris voters. I’m not confident one way or another. If I seem confident, it’s probably because I’m pushing back on what I see as delusional euphoria here.
I think it is likely that Trump will lose the popular vote and win the electoral college, but I don’t know. I also think America is a profoundly broken place (perhaps irredeemably so).
There’s maybe 2 or 3 people exhibiting that behavior in this thread, and none have posted for a while in it; for the most part you’re attacking a straw man.
Clearly, I disagree.
Look, I’m not saying you’re 100% wrong. There have been a few people who literally said in this thread that Trump has no chance, that he will be crushed in a landslide, and so on. And that does seem like delusional euphoria. You have a point there.
But everyone else, at best, have said there are signs of hope, and there are others that have been less enthusiastic. That at best it’s a coin flip.
Your insistence that the country is full of fascists and is broken forever is literally the opposite of delusional euphoria and just as bad.
If it’s your honest opinion, that’s fair, and in fact I even thank you for providing it. I don’t share it, but that’s okay, as you said we will just disagree and there’s no harm in it.
If you’re expressing it just to counter what you see as people already claiming that the election is over and it’s time to celebrate, and that pessimism not really what you believe, that’s not very helpful at all.
I absolutely think America is full of fascists and I think part of the reason we’ve collapsed is “centrists” who insist that it can’t happen here when it has already happened. I think that people failing to acknowledge it and bend themselves into pretzels to defend the people they know who vote Trump are normalizing fascism. We had an attempted coup and the leader of that coup has a 50/50 chance of winning this election.
Yeah, it’s maddening how frustrating that is. How can it even be close? But it is.
The VFW just shot down trump-
I share, support, and echo this view.
Until Harris is taking the oath in January, I am assuming Trump will be the next president.
A vote for Trump is a vote against that uppity n/99/r bitch Harris. Is a vote for project 2025.
Stop fantasizing about their “true” motivations, stop looking at your own assessment of their character.
It is exactly what it says on the box. No mystery, no smoke and mirrors.
Fox is not fooling or brainwashing their viewers, it is telling them how to spin the facts to fit their existing worldview.
MAGAs are not children, nor idiots. They know exactly what they are voting for.
If you want to associate yourself with these people know that they are not, by any sane definition, “good people”.
Yeah, basically. I think there is a continuum of self-awareness and -admission of this motivation.
Because a lot of Americans are fascists.
My sense is there are a whole lot of people who aren’t saying they’re going to vote for Trump, but when they get in that booth, that’s what they’re going to do. They know they are voting for fascism, in their hearts, they want gays back in the closets and blacks to shut the hell up.
Yet again:
These are not contrasting positions. They can be one and the same thing.
I (and many others, in this thread and beyond) “say there are signs of hope.”
AND it is a “coin flip”.*
*As I posted above, for me, something this important starts to feel less like a coin flip when well-supported (though not infallible) models show it happening at least two-thirds of the time in model runs. (Still worrisome — think 2016! — but not a “coin flip.”)
Maybe the sticking point here is what we mean by “coin flip.” A real, actual coin will be very close to 50-50 over many runs (say, two hundred), But we have only one 2024 presidential election. “Essentially a coin flip” has real meaning for how nervous and concerned (and, yes, thrilled and optimistic) I am, even if certain professional models based on polling have Harris winning, say, 62% of them. And she hasn’t reached even that yet! (And she may never!).
As said above, these are not mutually exclusive viewpoints. A couple months ago, it looked like Biden was going to get crushed. Now we’re talking about essentially 50/50. That’s a HUGE improvement and something to be hopeful about.
But 50/50 isn’t enough to be smug and comfortable. So we’re still worried. Just not as worried as before.
Exactly.