Currently Republicans have majorities in 26 states, Democrats in 22 and 2 are tied. But you’re absolutely right that even if Democrats have a great night they’re unlikely to get 26 House delegations. One of those tied states (NC) will certainly go R due to a gerrymander. They’re also in good shape to flip Alaska’s one House seat.
The bigger picture why this system benefits Republicans is that they tend to do well in smaller-but-more-numerous states while Democrats pick up much of their House seats in a few high-population states. Since California and Wyoming have the same vote in a contingent election, Republicans have a structural advantage.
ISTM that many voters were craving a not-Biden and not-Trump choice. I see Harris’ positives of not being either as much stronger than driving people into Trump’s camp. Let’s face it, the “never-Harris” crowd was going to vote MAGA anyways.
I admittedly checked out of this thread a couple of weeks (and 4- 500 posts) ago because of the numerous “Kamala will get north of 400 Electoral votes, no question” and “break out the cigars and brandy, boys… he’s in an unrecoverable death spiral now!” posts.
A couple of us pushed back to remind those posters that we were still in mid-fking-August, and we were handwaved away, so I got bored and started following the numerous other threads instead. I “pray” that I don’t get to come back here in two months and say “see, we fucking told you so”.
There might be a better word than “complacency” but the clickbaity “yep, it’s over now, he’s circling the drain!” posts certainly give fodder to the MAGAts and their “oh boy, after eight years you’ve got him now, Example # 375,499” talking point.
I’m not worried about Dem complacency giving fodder to the MAGAts. I’m worried about it giving Dems the idea they don’t actually have to donate, volunteer or even vote.
Yep. Completely agree (I think I conflated two different thoughts into one run-on sentence). You said it better than I did in regards to “complacency”.
If, as expected, the election is really close but Harris pulls it off, I suspect most of us will only find it mildly irksome if anybody comes back to claim all the “it’s over now!” predictions were right all along.
Mostly, I suspect we’ll feel relieved, take a breather, and then get back to worrying about shenanigans leading up to Jan 20 and then the next cycle when you know the usual suspects will try again.
I’ve said it before. If Harris loses it’s the Dem’s fault for not being active. I’m a Republican and I have contributed to the Harris campaign, contributed to Rideshare2vote, and am canvassing in Denver for Harris. The only reason I don’t have a Harris/Walz sign in my yard is my house would get firebombed. If you are a registered Dem in a swing state and I am doing more than you are and she loses your EVs to Trump then YOU are the reason she loses.
ETA: I’m worried that you Dems found someone with more energy than a corgi to run for President. It’s OK for this election but please don’t make it a habit.
The issue with this debate, if when trump acts even worse that Biden did, there will be no calls for him to step down or calling him senile, like some minor Democrats and the NYT did to Biden.
You forget- win Florida, which in the last poll shared here- trump had only a 2% lead over Harris. 30EC. I give that as a 25% chance- as of now.
Ah yes! The ol’ “Well, I haven’t answered a poll!” argument that we heard in 2020!
And 2016,
And 2012,
And 2008,
And 2004…
People trot this out every time, almost always accompanied by a hidden reason their preferred candidate is really running away with it, despite the polls. And yet the polls will turn out to be pretty accurate. Whatever the poll aggregator analysts think it’s at come November is what the vote will turn out to be within a couple of points. The polls are, in fact, correct, taken in the aggregate.
The hilarious thing of course is that Trumpists say exactly the same thing. The polls are all wrong! Trump is really way ahead, for hidden reasons!
And I’ll add to this that it was a major reason why Biden was elected in 2020. “Holy shit, we have to vote in this election! Remember what happened four years ago?”
Wait, didn’t we say in this very thread that polling models underepresented Trump in 2016, the “shy Trump supporter” notion? Haven’t there already been comments about 2020 also being off?
Seriously, lots of time has been affluent discussing of the models were corrected after previous elections not matching.
This isn’t a dope argument, this is the kind of thing discussed in political coverage like CNN and ABC.
Maybe it’s a case where the prediction changes the outcome by changing his people react, like that “there’s no way he can win so I won’t bother to vote” claim.
An all-ALEC Congress and 30+ ALEC-friendly statehouses is better for Koch et al than a senile volatile toddler klepto-dictator taking orders from Putin.
I think I basically had it right how it would go, but I think Harris did about 20% better than I had expected, and Trump about 10% worse.
She was prepped to the max, and her delivery was very solid. Real and not slick or fake. No “word salad,” of which she has been accused in the past. She evaded a few questions, and I’m not sure how much her derisive attitude towards and asides to Trump really helped her, but I don’t think they hurt much either.
Trump, as we all knew he would, ranted like an angry madman, repeating only a tiny, tiny handful of talking points. However, no meltdowns and no dementia-ish glitches. He did seem weak at times, however, such as when he said he had “a concept of a plan” for healthcare.
The mods did a good job, and they fact-checked Trump multiple times. Further, I think the debate format helped Harris and hurt Trump on the whole.
I think Harris’s performance will redound to increased support which may be noticed in the polls, but it wasn’t a huge game-changer. But she did what she had to do, and I’m pleased with how it went.
I just wish Harris had pushed back more on the “foreign criminals are flooding our country” BS, which Trump repeated at least five times.
It’s wrong in at least three ways: 1. Immigration is down 2. Crime is down. 3. Immigrants aren’t particularly prone to crime — in fact, their crime rates are LOWER than native-born.
(And to blame any particular crime on one’s immigration status is ridiculous — you might as well group that perp with all left-handed people — yet thousands of Republican commercials are bombarding me with this crap every day).
She did mention she prosecuted border crime stuff like gangs and drug trafficking, so that’s a start.
(I didn’t even mention that immigration overall, within limits, is good and necessary for the health of our economy, especially in eras of low unemployment — but I guess that fact is too much for that handful of undecideds in Wilkes-Barre to swallow.)
