How can I best hedge my NCAA bracket pool entry with "side bets".

Factual Questions
1

OK, somehow my yearly entry into a fairly large bracket pool hasn’t been eliminated yet, and if all 3 remaining games go my way I win $500. What I need to happen is for OSU to beat Georgetown, Florida to beat UCLA, and Florida to beat OSU. If any of the games go the wrong way, I’m elimiated.

Now, I’m considering placing a bet or two against my picks in order to ensure I win at least something. I’m looking for advice on what bets and amounts to make in order to maximize the guaranteed money I’d have coming.

Bets would of course have 10% juice against them in case of loss.

Current lines have OSU at +1 or +1.5, and Florida at -3 or -3.5.

Ohio St. game goes off first. I’m thinking this is my “make or break” game, maybe I should put $200 or so on Georgetown? That way, with a win I’m +200, and with a loss I’m still in the running for +280 with the favorite in the next game. I’m also considering leaving this one alone and crossing my fingers that OSU can pull it out, but it will suck to see my brackets to go poof if the Buckeyes get bounced.

Florida game is the second game of the night, and I’ll know where I stand going into that one. If OSU hasn’t won their game, this game would be irrevelant to my brackets. But, if I’m still alive, this one could be to my advantage because my team is actually giving points. If I’m still in it, I would think this one would be a good one to go big on UCLA because there is the window from 0-3 points where a Florida victory would be a double win for me.

Assuming both games today go my way, the Monday game would be the easiest to bet on. That is a bridge I’ll cross if I come to it, but I’d think I’d bet about 1/2 of my remaining potential bracket money available against Florida.

So, any math geniuses out there with any input on how to make sure I get money out of this? I can provide more info if necessary. It seems to me that the only I won’t get anything back, assuming I hedge as much as I can, would be if GT beats OSU by exactly 1 point.

2

My head just exploded in analyzing this. I don’t think it’s a good idea.

Here’s how I broke it down: Using your $200 on G’Town example - let’s hedge $200 on each game. Ignore your entry fee to the pool.

1st game - OSU v. G’Town. Pick: OSU. Hedge: $200 on G’Town.
— if G’Town wins: Up: $200. Down: $0. Net: + $200.
— if OSU wins: Up: $0. Down: $200. Net: -$200 (plus go to 2nd game).

2nd game - Florida v. UCLA. Pick: Fla. Hedge: $200 on UCLA.
— if UCLA wins: Up: $200. Down: $200 (1st game). Net: $0.
— if Florida wins: Up: $0. Down: $200 (1st game) + $200 (2nd game). Net: -$400 (plus move on to third game).

3rd Game: OSU v. Florida. Pick: Fla. Hedge: $200 on OSU.
— if OSU wins: Up: $200. Down: -$400. Net: -$200.
— if Florida wins: Up: $580. Down: -$400. Net: $180.

So, through this form of hedging, you could potentially win (at max) $200. You could potentially lose $200. I think you’re just putting more money at risk.

Better to wait and hope that OSU and Florida survive. Then you can hedge on the final game easily.
Florida wins: $580.
UCLA wins: $0.

So hedge by betting $290 on UCLA.
Florida wins: $580 - $290 = $290.
UCLA wins: $290.

Of course, I would not do this either - because I’d rather lose my entry fee on the chance of winning $580, than guarantee that I won $290.

3

Oh, and I definitely apologize to all the math majors and statisticians out there. Feel free to disregard, dissect, and mock my primitive analysis.

4

I need UCLA to win both games to get $540. It doesn’t matter what happens with Ohio State and Georgetown, although I may as well have Ohio State beat Georgetown to keep my record perfect from the sweet 16 on!

U! (3 claps)
C! (3 claps)
L! (3 claps)
A! (3 claps)

U-C-L-A! Fight! Fight! Fight!

5

What bets are available to you? Can you bet on the outcome of three games together, or only on individual games? If you can make a bet on all three games together, then it’s easy. There are only eight possible outcomes of the remaining three games, and you’re already (effectively) betting on one of them. So bet on the other seven possible outcomes, as well.

To maximize your guaranteed money, you want to make your bets in such a way that you get the same amount no matter who wins (in this case, with a 10% vig, that would be $56.25). The odds for each game are irrelevant for this. This also, of course, means that you’re minimizing the amount of money you could potentially win if you’re lucky (since there’s no room left to “get lucky”. This may or may not be what you want.

6

Thanks for the replies. I didn’t make a Georgetown bet, so now all I need is Florida to win their next 2 to get the $500. I’m still considering making a hedge bet on UCLA now that the picture is a lot more clear. I can get that game at +3, so there is a nice little window where I could not only win my hedge bet, but also keep my brackets alive.

The only bets I’m looking at are single games against the spread.

Any new advice now that there are only 4 possible scenarios left? I’m thinking put $250 on UCLA. With that bet I see three possible outcomes:

  1. UCLA wins: I’d finish +$250 and my bracket would be eliminated

  2. UCLA loses, Florida covers: I’d be -$275 from the bet, but brackets would be alive for a potential net profit of $225 (with Florida win in championship).

  3. UCLA loses but covers: Jackpot. I’d not only win the bet for $250, but I’d also have my bracket alive for another $500.

Also, if Florida wins, I’d need to hedge again against OSU to guaranty money, but since OSU would be the underdog I could again have points in my favor.

So, does that all make sense? Do the numbers add up?

Upon preview, I see a hole in my logic. If UCLA loses, I wouldn’t be able to hedge enough to guaranty I don’t lose money on the national championship game. How do I account for this, and/or make sure I at the very least avoid losing money?

7

Easy way to guarantee that you don’t lose money: Don’t make any further bets.

There may or may not be some other way to guarantee that you don’t lose money. The situation is complicated by the fact that your bracket will come through or not on the straight win-lose, but your available side bets are all based on the point spread. Is there a line set yet for the final game (contingent, of course, on who makes it there)? If you’re backing the underdog in the final game, then the only way you can guarantee that you won’t lose money is to not bet: If you make any other bet at all, then there’s the possibility that Florida (your bracket team) wins the semifinal (and you therefore lose any hedge bet you might have had on that game), but then just barely loses the final game (so you don’t win the bracket, and also don’t win any hedge bet you might have made on that game).