Let’s completely ignore the electoral college and talk solely about the popular vote in polls.
National polls (from several sources) mostly all agree Obama is up about 5-8 points over McCain. I’ve seen no reputable pollster show a margin above that.
On the other hand, those exact same pollsters all agree Obama is up huge (15-20 points) in most of the big states (California, New York, Illinois), and up by 5-10 points in most of the medium-to-big states (Pennsylvania, Flordia, Ohio, Michigan, New Jersey, etc). Sure, McCain wins with big margins in a lot of small states but Obama cancels that out with big wins in lots of small states of his own. The only big state that McCain carries by a large margin is Texas, but California alone more than offsets that.
NC, VA, and MO seem to be split evenly (many polls even show Obama ahead) so they don’t affect the total.
So – given Obama’s huge leads in big states, how can the national average be as close as it is? I could understand it being even if Obama were just barely winning the big states and McCain were hugely winning the little states. But with Obama winning such huge margins in CA, NY, IL, and beating the national average in so many medium states, where are all of McCain’s supporters coming from? There can’t be enough people in ND, SD, NE, KA, etc to cancel out the larger states, can there?