I hope you’re right. I do not want to see millions of Koreans or millions of Americans die. The question is, how can we come to have an improved relationship with NK without pissing off SK?
How can we get to a state of Detente as we did with the USSR in the 1970s and then in the late 1980s to early 1990s? Where it is clear we do not agree with each other, but we are not going to destroy each other, either.
The most creative and insightful post I have ever seen on this issue … I have long thought that it should be feasible to send drones into NK releasing pamphlets (I thought the same thing about Syria and Iraq) but hi-jacking the airwaves would indeed be a much more effective means of destabilization.
South Korea has reportedly flexed its military muscles by conducting live-fire exercises after Pyongyang’s latest nuclear test.
The training exercises, led by South Korea’s Army and Air Force, simulated a strike against its neighbor with F-15K fighter jets hitting targets as well as surface-to-surface ballistic missiles, CNN reported, citing a statement from the country’s Joint Chiefs of Staff.
The drills, which took place early Monday morning local time, included a simulated strike on North Korea’s nuclear test site, Punggye-ri, according to CNN.
This whole thing is a powderkeg. All it needs is the wrong move for it to go off 
Kim Jung Un is trying to protect his vile regime. That’s what it comes down to. If we are not in a position to change the regime without paying monumental costs (which is the reality we’re confronted with), then the logical solution is in convincing the North Koreans that we’re not going to take steps that will threaten their regime, provided that they in return show some ability to respond to positive reinforcement. North Korea can be viewed as a complex problem to solve or a festering, puss-filled pimple to pop. But if it pops, it will also be spectacularly messy.
Count me among those who are worried about our current president’s penchant to react rather than think things through. I don’t think Trump can solve complex problems. And worse, he has scant few real ‘thinkers’ and problem solvers in his White House to influence him. Word is that John Kelly is cutting off the traffic into his office, which I think is brilliant on his part. Kelly knows he needs to put up a wall around him to stem the influx of his worst enablers. I think Kelly knows the dangers that not only Trump but all of us face if he keeps getting bad advice and acts on impulse. If Kelly is pushed out, if Mattis leaves, if Cohn leaves…we are in deep, deep shit.
Maybe, but bear in mind that just because it’s a nonviolent means of destabilization doesn’t mean that it won’t have potentially violent consequences. The North Korean regime is using nukes and missiles to ensure the survival of its regime. Anything that is perceived as a threat to its regimes survival is going to be met with a reaction, probably in the form of another nuclear test and series of missile launches at minimum. If it feels particularly threatened, it might escalate.
I think what nobody’s talking about is the degree to which the United States needs to be throwing its weight around. Using pressure to get an adversary to cave in to a set of demands works - until it doesn’t. These tactics aren’t working with Russia and they aren’t working with North Korea, either. Maybe a different strategy is required, because the one that’s being applied now obviously isn’t getting us anywhere except ever closer to a disastrous conflict.
How about this: you do the propaganda thing, but instead of a single country acknowledging responsability, the UNSC collectively says they did it.
Note SK is not currently in the UNSC.
I think such a scenario would “work” in that I doubt KJU would lash out at any country, but it has the same downside as any plan (or lack of plan): if the regime goes down, what happens?
Look on the bright side- We’ve got the most thoughtful, intelligent strategist and wise historian, Donald Freeking Trump at the top of our side!
Kidding aside, I think this is the first time I’ve actually worried about what might happen with North Korea. I think this is way over Donny’s head, and this is a guy who has little hands syndrome. I worried about Donald Trump miscalculating Kim Jung Un, but I also worry about Kim Jung Un miscalculating Donald Trump. Every time Kim defies the United States, it exposes Trump’s impotence in dealing with him. Trump is obsessed with looking and sounding tough, he’s oblivious to the dangers he’s facing, he’s impulsive as hell, and he doesn’t like listening to smart people. That’s a very, very dangerous combination.
Bear in mind that we’re talking about a country that once threatened to start a war over a Christmas tree.
Respectfully I do not believe the “Voice of America” idea can work, some of the reasons have already been mentioned up thread.
In addition to what has been noted I would like to point out that the situation in North Korea is very different from that of Eastern Europe.
1st The Soviet Union was in free fall, as long as your great power sponsor is at least reasonably stable, you as a satellite, or to state North Korea’s position; client, will not fail due to other outside pressure.
2nd All the Eastern European countries had some history and experience of self-government. I acknowledge that by the time of the collapse of the Soviet Union there would not have been much of a living memory of such times. On the other hand Korea hadn’t been self-governing in a very long time.
3rd All the Eastern European countries had some experience of greater prosperity, granted the Great Depression had had a major effect, non the less many people would have been able to compare their standard of living under Soviet Rule to that of a former time. Again it must be acknowledged that the experience of better times would have been largely faded out by the fall of the Soviet Union but the knowledge would not have.
Now I don’t know what the standard of living in Korea under the Japanese was, but I doubt that many, if any now, North Koreans would remember those times. In any case, it would seem that the power structures in North Korea don’t now feel privation.
Given these and other issues raised up thread, the Voice of America idea would likely fail.
Zuer-coli
If you’re a North Korean listening to foreign news, you can and probably will be caught and subject to imprisonment, torture, and death. Not only you, but your entire family. Broadcasting into NK is taking a bad risk with innocent people’s lives.
Time to face reality. NK has nukes. They always will have them. They will not use them because to do so is suicide. Let’s just accept reality and admit the genie is not going back in the bottle.
If you really want to change NK, I say recognize them, establish diplomatic and trade relations, help them grow their economy. As they do so, they’ll become part of the international community and start to feel pressure to conform to international norms.
What evidence do you have that this would work, even if you could do it?
As was noted up thread, Eastern Europe in the 50’s and 60’s clearly knew that they were under authoritarian regimes. They had ample evidence on what life was like in the west. They had experience fighting as individuals in WWII. Where were the successful uprisings that led to the overthrow of the Soviet Union’s hold on them?
Where were the successful uprisings that led to the overthrow of Hussein in Iraq?
The people of NK have lived under these conditions for 70 plus years. I just don’t see how their society would allow them to band together in any meaningful way with enough power to overthrow the regime, even if they were given a full view of their lives vis-a-vis the west or other modern Asian cultures.
In short I think fostering an internal uprising in NK is naive at best.
The different in the level of oppression between a country like Poland or Czechoslovakia in 1979 and North Korea today was literally greater than the difference between Poland and the United States in 1979. The USSR and its satellite countries were certainly not free countries, but most people could go about their business and live ordinary, if not Western-country-rich, lives. Post-STalin, even the USSR itself really wasn’t that bad for most people. If you openly defied the regime you could get in trouble, but if you were just a guy leading an ordinary life, nobody was going to bother you over a radio. The primary complaint about live in the USSR in the 60s, 70s and 80s wasn’t political oppression, is was the constant shortage of goods and having to line up to get things. The Soviet system was such that everyone had a decent wage and prices were kept artificially low, resulting in, as any first year economics textbook will tell you, a perpetual shortage of everything. People spent a lot of time and effort trying to finagle connections, favors and under-the-table deals to get products and services.
The level of oppression in North Korea is a hundred times worse.
I think this encapsulates the reality of the present situation as well as any post in the thread. The regime is going to continue to push ahead with its weapons program not because it wants a war but because it doesn’t want to be invaded or otherwise undermined. Whether or not North Korean relations under the Kim dynasty can ever be somehow normalized remains open to question, and I’m somewhat doubtful.
It’s already been pointed out how dumb punishing China would be in terms of its impact on the US economy, but I’m also thinking that China might be one of the few countries that could play some role in helping the North Korean economy produce enough so that they’re not so desperate. China also provides a model for an authoritarian regime on how to promote modern market economics on one hand while controlling the influx of ideas that could be deemed “subversive” on the other.
In no way am I an expert on Korean affairs but reading foreign policy analysts and being at least a little familiar with Korea, it seems another important question that will need to be resolved is whether Korea is one state or two separate states. Perhaps it is time to settle on two Korean states with ever-growing cooperation between them and Asian countries. A related concern is how North Korea would cooperate or at least not harass Japan, a centuries-old rival.
Here it is:
Trump Threatens to ‘Totally Destroy’ North Korea in First U.N. Speech
Here is the whole paragraph from his UN speech:
I imagine that there is enough wiggle room in the definition of the word “threat” to justify whatever they want to do either way. So for now I say rhetoric.
If the USA suspects war with North Korea is likely, and almost certainly if we intend to initiate it, I suspect you’ll see a pretty significant global realignment of the posture of our forces. In other words, you probably don’t need to worry too much until there are several aircraft carriers sailing around the western Pacific at the same time and military families / “non-essential personnel” are evacuated from South Korea / Japan / perhaps Guam.