Best way to bring down the North Korean regime?

In My Humble Opinion
1

I’m sure this has probably been down before but I can’t find a thread on it. Anyway, I have just finished reading this report:

Which details a relatively little known aspect of North Korea’s nasty little regime, an artificially imposed class system with an impact on all aspects of a citizens lives.

Although it seems kind of funny from the outside, from the inside North Korea is a genuine totalitarian and Orwellian nightmare. My question is, if the US president got up this morning and decided the Kim regime had to go what would be the best way to achieve it with the minimum of bloodshed.

That’s a loaded term of course, the minimum bloodshed might be to just nuke Pyongyang when the Kim family is at home and roll in the tanks, or it might be to do what seems to be the current policy, just hope that at some point a reformist faction arises that is able to take control and loosen the grip of the KWP and Kim family on NK society.

Ideas?

2

‘Bomb’ the people of NK with knowledge of the rest of the world. It’s already being done to some extent. And is just going to happen naturally, but that might speed up a regime change.

The problem is that the new boss is likely to be as bad as the old boss.

To do it fast? I donno. I hate the idea of nukes but death is death I suppose. There is the tricky subject of the thousands of artillery pieces pointing at Seoul. I have my doubts that more than half of them are still working, or would be able to keep up any type of sustained fire. I wonder if FAEs would have any impact on them?

I’d bet that we have a pretty good idea where all their missile launch facilities are, for whatever they may be or how effective they are.

The Rhode Island National Guard would have a field day with NK’s ‘Air Force’, and their Navy doesn’t even do Blue Water. So no problems there.

There is a standing army of around 1,000,000. That’s a bit of a problem.

Since Jong Un is thought of as a God, just blasting him is problematic. If he just disappeared, would probably make things easier.

My .02

3

It’s very difficult for people in NK to get information from outside. First off, reliable electricity is nearly non-existent. Night satellite photos of NK show just a huge black area. Anybody who has somehow managed to obtain a TV or radio is required to have it modified to be pre-tuned to North Korean stations that broadcast primarily news as they see it and films about Glorious Leader. There are government workers who randomly check TVs to make sure they haven’t been tampered with. The only outside news they get is illegally obtained through black-market radios (and then only if they’re near the border with China) or from smuggled magazines and papers. The penalties for having such material in one’s possession are severe.

Trouble is, even when they get such information, they view it as propaganda from the west. People who escape from NK are usually shocked to find that things are exactly as they have been told by an outside source, and are overwhelming for them.

The standing army is a joke. They are underfed and likely not even paid. It would collapse very quickly.

4

It’s hard to imagine anything we could do to North Korea that’s worse than what it’s already doing to itself.

Occupying the country probably would make things better in North Korea. But it would cause problems outside North Korea. It would cost casualties and raise tensions among other powers in the region and the United States. So the consensus has been that accepting the status quo is preferable to paying the cost of changing it.

5

Doing exactly what we are doing.

I like President Obama’s refusal to engage them, I said we should be doing that under Clinton and Bush. Past presidents all too willingly played the ‘pay for the illusion of results’ game that North Korea created, where we (and South Korea) would end up paying them hundreds of millions of dollars in cash and food aid just so they’d show up at ‘talks’ for a while. Talks which seldom resulted in any lasting improvement.

Right now they’re getting pretty desperate. Pushing hard for scary weaponry to try to impress us, making ever more dire threats, isolating themselves further and further. The only thing keeping them afloat is that the Chinese basically ignore the sanctions despite Kim Jong Un’s refusal to act the vassal that his father and grandfather did. And that stupid bastard is going around killing off the old guard.

China doesn’t want them falling apart because they don’t want a few million refugees (more than there are) in their country.

So all we (and they) can do is be patient and wait for internal changes, which despite any current suffering, are inevitable.

6

That the US, with or without international support, could quickly overwhelm the DPRK militarily is not in question.

The problem is the amount of collateral damage that the Kim dynasty’s death throes would wreak upon the South, Japan, and anywhere else in range of their missiles, and the subsequent task of modernizing and rehabilitating what is essentially a pre-industrial nation at this point.

It’s really in everyone’s best interests right now to maintain the status quo until the Kim dynasty collapses upon itself.

7

The first part is the reason why the only good solution involves a time machine. The second part is not so much a problem since it will cost less than maintaining the status quo.

It’s not in the interest of the vast majority of North Koreans.

8

I’m not entirely sure that anything we could do to improve the lives of North Koreans today wouldn’t have an unacceptable human cost elsewhere.

9

Can’t argue with that.

10

I wouldn’t be too sure about that - did we learn nothing from Iraq?

Yes, I grant you, life in NK is probably pretty dire and I wouldn’t wish that on anyone. But going in there and toppling their leader (and with it their entire system of government) won’t suddenly make all their problems go away - there’ll be (possibly prolonged) fighting, massive collapse of infrastructure, possibly a return to famine, etc. It’s quite possible that life for the average North Korean would get either a little or a lot worse for years, if not decades afterwards.

As I see it, though, it’s not really our call anyway - they are, after all, a sovereign state and it’s ultimately up to the people to decide if they’re happy with the system they’ve got or not.

11

The Confucian idea of unquestioning obedience towards those of higher social and political rank is one that is simply foreign to us, and indeed is very difficult for the vast majority of westerners to understand. I can think of no scenario that would be able to erase this very basic and deeply ingrained social structure that is so firmly entrenched in North Korea.

There is a fascinating book I recently read call Nothing To Envy, by Barbara Demick. She chronicles the lives of several North Korean defectors, and interviews them extensively, spending several years gathering their stories. One very common part of the narrative of the defectors is that they actually miss living in North Korea: they felt a deep connection to the Kim regime and truly believed that Kim Il-sung is God: a true deity, here on earth in the flesh to provide for the people of North Korea. Before the famine in the 90’s, the North Korean government provided everything for the populace: food, shelter, clothing, heat, employment. They received government vouchers for everything they needed

Defectors often complain about how alien the capitalist society of South Korea is. Learning how to pay bills, paying for their own food, understanding the consequences of frivolous spending (In North Korea everything was provided, so budgeting was never an issue)…all this adds up to group of people that, frankly, liked it the old way.

North Korea has a population of ~25MM people, the vast majority of whom literally worship the Kims. By any rational objective standards the average North Korean lives a life of utter poverty in a draconian, totalitarian state… but they don’t see it that way. It’s the only thing they know, and will fight to death to protect the Kims and their regime.

It’s also important to note that North Korea is stable. Despite the crazy pronouncements and other wacky behaviors from little Kim, the regime remains happily in place. It’s survived the fall of the Soviet Union, China cutting off trade, and massive sanctions. Clinton almost went to war with them, and Bush the lesser bitched about them often. But today North Korea remains unchanged and unchallenged. While the people of North Korea suffered mightily, the government itself is stable.

So to actually answer the OP? The only thing I can think that might work by a Western power would be a Marshall Plan-like humanitarian effort combined with a massive denazification-style education campaign put in place immediately after the assassination of Kim, his cabinet, and the military brass. But that’s a blue-sky guess, as I’m confident that absolutely nothing will actually topple the regime short of massive internal insurrection. And considering how deeply Confucianism and worship of the Kims is entrenched in their society… that just isn’t going to happen.

And has been already pointed out numerous times, North Korea could never win a shooting war with the US and South Korea. However, since they have enough artillery to reduce Seoul to ashes and are apparently just waiting for an excuse to fire it, it seems like the current policy of just ignoring them and allowing them to exist in their little cocoon is working fine, at least as far as the international community is concerned.

12

There are several excellent documentaries about NK.

Some of them show how escapees from NK fly balloons when the winds are right that contain videos and small devices that contain TV shows and news shows from the west.

Apparently, there is a segment of the NK public that is described as “crazy for certain TV shows”. I forget which kind they are. They were something cheesy though like Dallas or Dynasty or some kind of detective shows.

My point is not that people in NK are dummies who like stupid TV shows. It is that they are starving for any kind of information and programs that are not stupid propoganda put out by the NK govt. That segment is growing and so, I would make some donations to those people.

BTW, each “package” attached to a balloon contains one US dollar and I forget exactly how this works. But they said that for every dollar they get into the hands of the NK public, it causes some real harm to the NK govt.

I’m sorry. I sure do wish I could remember just what people do with those American dollars that is such a threat and such a harm to the NK govt. Presumably, it lowers the value of the NK currency as more people will be willing to trade larger amounts of their impoverished NK currency for the US dollars which are used to buy foreign goods. But I don’t understand how that would harm the NK govt.

If anyone knows, I’d love to understand that.

13

I mentioned this in the other thread on North Korea, but I think the most effective method for regime change would be to launch a false-flag attack or fake natural disaster on Seoul to evacuate the city. Sure, perhaps the North might figure out what’s up, but it’s not like they could stop the evacuation or prepare for war any more than they are now. Then the US steamrolls the North Korean military and a joint US and South Korean force would occupy the North. We’d have to move fast to avoid starvation, but at least North Korean’s innate submissiveness to authority would prevent the existence of any rebellion.

I reject the belief that simply continuing with the status quo will lead to North and South sharing a Coca-Cola while singing It’s a Small World After All. As North Korea’s GDP grows slowly over time, so too grows their ability to feed their people and provide an acceptable standard of living. The probability of a successful internal rebellion declines with each passing day, as the people’s wants and needs become better met. Moreover, the amount of people who remember the days before totalitarianism and would therefore have some understanding of reality continue to dwindle. Finally, even though North Korea’s armed forces are decrepit, they will eventually improve their nuclear missile technology to the point where they pose an existential threat to the West and our allies.

All these trends point to one clear conclusion: the time to act is now. If we choose not to take military action against the North, we condemn twenty-five million people to lives of misery and oppression.

14

It’s not Iraq. There isn’t any existing political force outside of the regime. If we were just to take them out and disarm them and then leave them alone things won’t go well but that’s not what would happen. What we want to happen is a re-unification with South Korea but the Chinese aren’t thrilled with that. But even if China occupies them they’ll be far better off than they are now even if China treats them shabbily.

As for sovereignty, no one recognizes their sovereignty on principle.

15

Short of an armed conflict, which would be very short but very bloody, the only way to do it would be to have the Chinese on board. The Chinese are 100% the reason that NK exists. And pretty much the only reason they still exist today. If Un’s regime were to become a serious liability to their security I don’t doubt China could and would set into motion machinations that would bring about his downfall (and without an actual invasion).

The problem with this is it’s hard to imagine a situation where Red China would prefer a reunited democratic Korea to what exists today. Quite the opposite as China itself is certain to face civil unrest as their own middle-class market economy continues to succeed and wildly grow. If they can somehow reform their communist one-party govt without a civil war North Korea will simply cease to be a viable ongoing concern.

16

Really? The US State department would disagree. http://www.state.gov/s/inr/rls/4250.htm
As would the United Nations. http://www.un.org/en/members/#d

Way to miss the point. The situations are remarkably similar - a despotic leader that’s hated by the outside world and assumed to be viewed as an unwanted tyrant by his subjects.
Now, how did Iraq go when it was invaded? Did the people welcome their ‘liberators’ with open arms? Or was there a massive war? Would you say that the life of the average Iraqi was made better or worse in the ten years after the invasion?

Who is ‘we’, exactly? Does the populace of the DPRK get a say in this?

17

…and that’s bad? Keep in mind that North Korea hasn’t always been a starving hellhole; back in the glory days of the USSR they were often touted as a shining example of a successful Communist economy.

18

Dollars or other hard currency are used to buy things like rice and other food on the black market or from government officials. It’s then cut with other products and resold for a profit. This is called “capitalism”, which is anathema to a socialist regime like NK. People who are caught practicing what we call “life” are either sent to labor camps or prison, or they are executed. There’s no trading of currency; NK money is worthless even in Korea, as there is nothing to purchase with it. Whenever people start hoarding currency, the government revalues it and makes it worthless. Most people there get their hard currency from relatives in China, Japan or South Korea, which is smuggled across the border.

19

The Kim regime is an embarrassment to the world, and I would love to see it fall. The country is an Orwellian nightmare that beggars belief. And yet, North Koreans love their country. It’s recognized as a sovereign state. Neither China nor South Korea want to see some kind of catastrophic collapse – it would be a humanitarian disaster.
A couple of points worth making: The North Koreans do not long for a democratic government. They have never in the history of their country had a representative government, and they are so inundated with propaganda and so isolated from the rest of the world that they don’t know what to believe. The average North Korean knows that the information provided by his government is mostly lies, but has no experience with objective journalism, so assumes that all governments spew lies. They disbelieve what they hear of the west as propaganda from the other side.
North Korea was not always an economic disaster. For decades after the end of WWII, they were actually materially better off than South Korea.
Also, as hard as this is to believe from the outside, most North Koreans are patriotic people and love their country.
Militarily they are a wreck. I’m not even convinced they have any useable nuclear weapons. If it came to a shootin’ war with the U.S., assuming a well-run, intelligently led conflict (the polar opposite of Iraq), it would be over in a few days.
Besides Nothing to Envy, mentioned above, some other books to read would be **The reluctant communist : my desertion, court-martial, and forty-year imprisonment in North Korea **by Charles Robert Jenkins and Jim Frederick, and my favorite, **The hidden people of North Korea : everyday life in the hermit kingdom ** by Hassig, Ralph C. If you want an accurate picture of how the average North Korean lives, this is the book.

20

According to legend, the TV shows so wildly popular are South Korean soap operas.

The reason the army is so large is quite simple: it gets fed first. If you’re of an acceptable class, you hope you can get into the army.

And, for the horrible artillery set to destroy Seoul: how many would be surprised if the ammo turns out to be duds - hopefully hang-fire which destroys the gun. What is the shelf-life of a shell in that climate? How often does the atock get rotated?
I half expect that the soldiers have been selling the shells to the ROK for cash and a dummy to replace the stolen shell.

Whatever, Seoul has now spread up to and along the DMZ.