Will the North Korean regime end with Kim Jong-un? Will he finally push too far, causing the populace to snap and revolt or will he be the victim of a coup? It’s hard to see the current setup-existing for the entirety of his lifetime – something’s gotta give
Why would this regime be any different from the previous two? It certainly doesn’t look more liberal. Big Un is killing them off left and right.
I don’t see how it ends. Since the society is so closed, we don’t know if the people really believe the propaganda that they’ve been force fed for two generations. Do they really love the Un Leader or is it widely understood that he’s a tyrant and they kowtow to him only out of utter fear? The dictatorship clearly doesn’t give a rip how many of its people are starving and has no intention of ever permitting the slightest bit of reform or allowing any sort of communication with the outside world. I’ve got a sick feeling that the Kim dynasty will outlast the pyramids.
Because no regime lasts forever, no matter how oppressive? Indeed I think the more oppressive it gets, the more likely the chance that the populace will snap. Either that or his megalomania will get the better of him and he’ll do something to piss off the military and ruling elite that support him, resulting in a coup.
Some of them undoubtedly do love him, but I’ll bet dollars to doughnuts that the majority of them fear and loathe him instead. As can be seen in the Arab Spring, even fear doesn’t last forever - there comes a point when the people lose their fear and would rather die than live another day under the regime. The more oppressive the regime and the more they rely on far for control, the faster that day comes…
Those that hate him know they dare not breathe a word of it to anyone- even friends and family, probably even their spouse. It’s hard to see how a critical mass of opposition would ever form given that subcritical masses are likely exterminated on formation.
I don’t know - look at Libya. Any opposition was ruthlessly culled there, with critics of the government being hung in public stadiums as a spectacle and a warning to all. Gaddhaffi had the country under his bootheel, with secret police busting down doors in the night all over the place. But now he’s dead.
I just don’t see how KJU can maintain this level of oppression *forever *without the whole thing igniting.
I hope very much that you are proven right and I am dead wrong.
I think the most likely way the regime ends is with a coup from another higher-up during a succession crisis rather than a popular uprising. Kim Jong-Un may well not have any children, or may not have any suitable children, or he could die naturally or be assassinated, and if there was no clear successor, then it could get ugly before (hopefully) improving.
NK is not Libya. If you think the two are analogous, you are sorely mistaken. NK is more like China in the 1950s. Reform came from within.
Also, doesn’t Libya have considerably more computer and social media access than NK? I know it’s pretty abysmal in NK… And without resources like that, you’re not going to have the same kind of Arab Spring uprising.
I know they’re not entirely analogous - NK is worse. I was just using Libya to illustrate the fact that fear is ultimately untenable as a control mechanism. Push too hard and the fear evaporates and is distilled into anger. You cannot keep an entire nation afraid forever.
And suppose this happens. This will be an improvement how?
It seems to me that Libya was a bit more open than North Korea is. The borders weren’t nearly as sealed and Libyans had a little more access to outside information. It seems to me that when a regime has as its sole goal self-perpetuation and doesn’t care in the least how its own citizens suffer then it might just survive for generations.
I hope so too, but when it happens, it will undoubtedly be ugly.
A good point, but is access to foreign media and social media strictly *necessary *in order to have an uprising? It would certainly help, but is it completely, fundamentally required?
Who said it would be an improvement? I was just asking how likely it would be to happen within KJU’s lifetime.
I’m not sure about that. Yes, it’s more closed than Libya was, but in my opinion that just means that the county is more of a pressure-cooker. The status quo certainly can (indeed, has) lasted a long time, but “a long time” is not “forever”, and it seems to me that the more brutally the regime squeeze the life out of the people, the more they increase the dissatisfaction and the quickly they hasten the inevitable revolt.
Or I could be talking out of my ass and NK lasts in its current form until the stars turn cold, who knows?
Yes, I’m afraid so. Overthrowing the Kim dynasty will likely be a very bloody business. In the long run, the people will be infinitely better off but many North Korean families would lose a lot of loved ones.
But the people of Libya had their own personal pride: ethnic identites, tribal affilitations, etc, which are the main ways that individuals defined their self-image. When picking a spouse, for example, they looked for individuals from the right tribe, with the right level of Muslim relgiousity, etc–not for somebody from the right political party…
So I’m guessing that in private, most Libyans would have been willing to whisper to their immediate family how much they hated Gaddaffi. And if they were caught and tortured by the secret police, they had a family waiting for their return, to provide emotional support.
In North Korea, individuals have nothing else except the state.
Every wedding ceremony must be held alongside a statue of the Dear Leader. And if you whisper the wrong thing, three generations of relatives are tortured, so there’s no family left to support you.
The only way I can see to bring down NKorea is for the Chinese to decide to work with them. As the Chinese economy develops to western levels, it will eventually falter-- the factories will become unprofitable when the workers demand higher wages. So maybe China will outsource their factories to cheap N. Korean laborers just across the border.