I’ve said it before in previous similar threads. The optimal way out from here is for us to tell China they can have NK, no strings attached. And we’re happy to help push things along at a pace of the Chinese’ choosing.
The NK populace will be far better ruled from Beijing than they are today. And much better off economically. The Chinese will be much happier with their border with the capitalist world being at Seoul rather than at the Yalu river. SK is spared the insane, and truly unbearable, cost of trying to absorb and update NK.
That’s win, win, win. We just need enough confidence-building now that the Chinese would believe we’re sincere, not setting a trap for them.
As well, we need to persuade China that they’re better off with a crappy new province than they are with their current wayward mostly out-of-control sorta-vassal. As unhappy as we are with the way NK is today, I have to believe the Chinese are even moreso.
Some folks upthread talked about self-determination, and has anyone asked the NK citizenry what they want. Noble thinking. But before NK becomes a real nuclear threat to the larger peace, they need to be decapitated. The interests of several million each SKs, Japanese, and / or Americans not being nuked for the hell of it outweighs the interest of 25 million NKs in continuing to live in their familiar, confused, and mostly miserable state.
Thanks for the answers everyone. I do encourage people to read that link I posted above, it does help explain the NK regime better and that different North Koreans have very different experiences of life in that state.
But the majority (basically all?) of the people have absolutely no say in how the system is run and whether they are happy or not with it is of absolutely no consequence for the powers that be. And given the horrific consequences of voicing dissatisfaction with the regime, and not only for the individual in question but for their extended family, its extremely unlikely that any grassroots rebellion could gather momentum.
The part of that book that stuck with me was the image of the lady who defected to China, she was struck by the obscene wealth and decadence of a society that could afford to feed white rice to their dogs, something that was a luxury in NK.
I don’t see how NK could possibly pose an existential threat to the West, barring a completely suicidal overreaction to any possible attack they may launch.
I said in another thread, I think China supporting an internal coup is the best possible outcome. If they do it correctly then NK can reform along Chinese lines both socially and economically. Compared to North Korea, China is a rich and free country.
That seems like it would satisfy everyone. The Chinese get a friendly buffer state and access to a nation with large amounts of rare earth metals. South Korea doens’t have to pay to rebuild the North. NK stops building WMD and being belligerent and the people in NK get a chance at a better life. If you did the coup right, the elites (other than the Kim hardliners) wouldn’t even change, so they would stand to benefit too. One of the things holding back reform is the fact that the elites think their lives would be massively worse under a revolution (they’d either lose their power and influence at best, or be tortured and killed at worst). If China convinced the non Kim elite in NK that they would maintain their status and not face criminal charges for their behavior they would probably be more willing to support a Chinese backed coup.
The issue is convincing China that supporting a coup in NK is in their best interest.
The politics of East Asia are only slightly more transparent than those of the Middle East.
Why China is supporting the little ingrate who just might make such a mess as to create a rebellion?
It is my understanding that the one word central to all of China’s rulers for all of recorded history: Chaos.
With the huge population, China cannot afford even a hiccup. As long as things go smoothly, the guy on the throne - ancient, Mandarin, or Communist, is happy.
Because it’s not generally a good thing to have 26 million people on the planet that live in fear, famine and poverty? NK has defined the US and South Korea as their enemy. Now this is really nothing more than school yard bullying, but if that bully has a gun, or a nuke, and nothing to lose…
NK does have mineral resources to trade that could bring it into a position to feed its people. All that happens is saber rattling. And the threat of nukes if the rest of the world doesn’t feed them. And then the food just goes to it’s soldiers and ‘leaders’. Rinse and repeat.
There’s one thing I always think about during discussions on this topic. North Koreans seem to like to dig tunnels. Their subways are 100 meters underground. I don’t know if we have any “bunker busters” that can work that deep. And perhaps their military and governmental undergrounds are deeper than that. And I have no idea how many tanks, artillery pieces, and ammunition are stashed below the surface.
I don’t want to open this thread up to partisan politics but I think the problems in Iraq were mostly particular to the people in charge. They basically saw the occupation of Iraq as an opportunity to make money while figuring somebody else would take care of rebuilding the country. We should learn the lessons of Iraq in order to avoid making the same mistakes, not to avoid doing it right if another similar situation arises.
I don’t think they believe in the sovereignty of NK in principle. It’s just realpolitik.
If you want an analogy look at Germany. Korea is a single nation and culture that has been divided for decades, but there’s no reason to think reunification won’t work here. There’s no cohesive political force in the north outside of the current regime. It doesn’t mean one couldn’t arise if a reunification is screwed up, but given that we somehow take out the current regime in the North that there will not even be a desire for revenge.
Sure, as soon as some other nation turns them into an actual country instead of a giant concentration camp. So if China takes over I can see the North Koreans not wanting to be Chinese, but I doubt they’d want independence over reunification.
I have the distinct impression that most of the world (esp. NATO) would absolutely LOVE for China to meddle in such a way as to improve the quality of life in DPRK.
The North is building a new road/improving an old road up to the Chinese border. It may be for heavy transport. Then again, it was started by Daddy back when things were looking up. 38 North’s take
Right now, it looks as if Russia is casting around for money and sees that mountain of rare earths just over the border. Add to that Un’s planned-then-unplanned attendance at Moscow’s big WWII commemoration, and you may have an idiot who is trying to play Russia against China - while holding an extremely weak hand.
DPRK actually lists MiG-15 and MiG-17 fighters as “Active Service”.
These are regularly seen on Ebay for $50K - they were obsolete in 1970, and they North does not have the ability to maintain them. They have been cannibalizing them for decades.
They also have trouble training pilots - they don’t have enough fuel to run fighters (which essentially dump fuel out of a large hole - they are thirsty).
I don’t know what kind of tanks they run - but I’m going to guess 1960 design. How effective a tank would be in downtown Seoul is questionable - a simple RPG from any of 10,000 windows is all it would take. And how long has the fuel been in those?
An all-out war between N and S with China, Russia, and the US all sitting it out would be over in a week.
Any troops coming from the North through a tunnel is more likely to drop his rifle and grab a sandwich. All reports seem to agree on one common reaction by defecting DPRK - whether they go to ROK or PRC - absolute disbelieve at the wealth - even those who had heard of conditions outside had assumed that the tales were just lies, the same as they got from their own country.
One woman who went to China couldn’t get over the fact that her hosts were so rich they could afford to feed white rice to their DOGS!
In relation to the other thread about him having his No.2 General executed by anti-aircraft fire simply for falling asleep during a parade, I hope he keeps this up! Hopefully the military will only put up with so much nonsense from this spoiled, bullying, privileged, psychopathic twerp before the Praetorian Guard finally goes *Valkyrie *on him…