I kinda already know the answer to this question, but I still think it’s a very interesting topic to discuss. Every once in a while in my life, I stop everything I’m doing and think “Oh man… North Korea is actually still a thing.” Then I’ll jump online to read or watch interviews from defecktors, descriptions of North Korean life, etc. and be completely dumbfounded as to why humanity still doesn’t consider an entire nation of prisoners to be a good enough reason to declare war on that state.
Wars have always been fought for imperialist and/or capitalist motivations, which is essentially the real answer to this thread and also why I would never consider joining the military, but IF a new campaign to free the citizens of North Korea was launched tomorrow, I would consider it a noble act to dawn a uniform and risk personal safety in order to kill some facists and free millions of innocent people from that hell hole.
Of course, there likely wouldn’t be any need for “boots on the ground” to take out KJ and his posse, but all the same, the idea of using violence would at least for once feel completely justified in that case, unlike every other war white people have started throughout history.
There’s always the argument that North Korea’s collapse is probably imminent anyway, but on the other hand… it’s been over half a century already. Hasn’t this gone on long enough? It doesn’t make sense that world leaders are afraid of nuclear war breaking out. Could you imagine a combined effort between the US, Russia, China and Japan for example? It would be a joke mission. They don’t even have internet, so they’d never see it coming! ba dum ksssh
But yeah… most world leaders don’t actually care that much about human suffering unless it advances their political careers in some way, and North Korea’s dictatorship still serves as the perfect way to scare ignorant people of “evil communism” so they can justify their own western oligarchies and corrupt “free” markets by comparison.
What in the world makes you think China and Russia would want to work with the US and Japan in liberating North Korea? Also, yes, I think world leaders are very afraid of nuclear war breaking out. It would be bad.
Russia because they are largely responsible for North Korea existing in the first place, and China because they have a common interest in preventing terrorism and nuclear proliferation. North Korea is their crazy neighbor, after all.
How hard could a surprise attack be? And if their reaction is really that predictable, we could be prepared to stop it.
Pretty much this. The cost would be way too high. As Chronos said, North Korean artillery is dialed in on the South’s capital…and we are talking 10’s of thousands of tubes in highly dispersed and highly protected bunkers and firing positions. The cost would simply be too high…and this doesn’t even take into account their nuclear capability, whatever that is.
This is one of those cases where you hope to hell that when they finally fall apart that there is someone sane over there who won’t push the button and will instead request aid. It’s the only good option. Starting a war with North Korea, even if China and Russia would go along (which they wouldn’t) would be a very Bad Thing™.
[QUOTE=Dr. Arthias]
How hard could a surprise attack be? And if their reaction is really that predictable, we could be prepared to stop it.
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It’s not like the movies. Real life is messy. It would be pretty difficult to take out the North Korean artillery in a surprise attack. It would be equally hard to take out the NK leadership such that no order to fire would go down the line. You couldn’t just sneak some stealth jets in and hope for the best. I have no doubt that our stealth planes would get through…but if you missed, then what? If you haven’t put your ground troops and the population of Seoul on notice then they would be fucked in the counter attack. And if you did put them on notice then odds are the NKs (or Russians or Chinese, or all of them) would notice and be prepared.
Oh, and ETA:
Seriously? You think all wars through history were for ‘imperialist and/or capitalist motivations’?
The USA is trying to get China on our side in this matter … and they are slowly coming around … but right now it’s fair to say the Chinese will come to the aid of North Korea if the USA should attack … just like last time.
Imagine 5 million Chinese troops in Mexico curtailing drug cartels … sounds good on the surface, but, ummm, it would make a few Americans a bit nervous.
Well, considering that a lot of the raw materials for the drugs in Mexico come from China (for things like meth and the like), it’s hard to imagine China sending troops to put down the cartels…
But your over-arching point is correct. China wouldn’t be happy with a war initiated by the US and our allies right on their door-step and against a country they are allied with.
Even if you could beam the NK leadership into the sun and throw the doors open without firing a shot, you’ve still got a hell of a mess; millions starving, toxic waste, minefields, infrastructure, etc.
To be clear, North Korea has huge numbers of artillery pieces within range of Seoul that are placed in bunkers built into mountains. We don’t seem to know where all these many bunkers may be, and even if we did, there’s no feasibly way to launch hundreds to thousands of sorties in hours to day to destroy every one with earth-penetrating bombs. It is just not possible. Not to mention that North Korea has unknown numbers of tunnels to be able to quickly send and invasion force behind our lines at th DMZ, surely wreaking havoc. Also not to mention that North Korea has nuclear weapons now, though it’s delivery systems are questionable.
There is no doubt whatsoever that the US and South Korea would win the war, but it’s safe to say that it would likely be very costly.
While you criticize countries for not invading a country on human rights grounds if it disrupts their own shallow self interest; ask yourself if this is not a universal trait of mankind. You or I could be doing ten thousand things more valuable to humanity instead of engaging in this debate, and we are content to have a little bit of fun discussing these things instead of building houses for the poor or taking in rescue dogs. How selfish is that? And let’s keep in mind that such charitable actions do not carry the risk that we would be responsible for starting a war that would end with hundreds of thousands of casualties (or more). How despicable are we?
The only sensible way of doing it would be for China to launch a massive invasion from their side, and we and the South Koreans help from the south in cooperation with the Chinese.
However, besides the impact on the South, there are going to be lots of North Korean casualties. How many of them should be sacrificed to save them. It would make Iraq look clean.
The only practical method of regime change is enough pressure from the Chinese to force the military into a coup or else starve. Still risky, but at worst would be safer all around than an invasion.
No one actually respects North Korea’s autonomy. If they could be easily taken out without causing problems, it would happen pretty rapidly, especially since anyone can cite humanitarian concerns without anyone rolling their eyes, and nuclear weapon concerns. Like other people have pointed out, though, they can do massive damage to South Korea before being taken out, the war would be a nasty, expensive, high casualty slog, no one has the motive to spend that much life and treasure, and a US invasion would cause significant problems with the Chinese.
Yes and this is how South Korea and pretty much everyone else sees it. Actually I think South Korea is terrified of sudden unification because of the overwhelming numbers of starving traumatised people.
We don’t need a war to normalise North Korea. We didn’t need one for the fall of the Iron Curtin either. It will happen.
NK has been a bit of a study of mine for the last 5 years or so. It’s really fascinating what is going on.
The cost would be incredible. And create a population of 26 million that are one meal away from famine into refugees. Refugees that SK and China don’t want.
While the NK arty won’t even have to aim to hit ‘targets’ in Seoul, I have my doubts about the capability that much of it to be operational. It’s very old equipment. I’ve said it before, FAE bombs would disrupt that whole system of the NK arty. I think…
And we have to consider the NK million man army. Every man in NK is conscripted to serve for 7 years. Women, I think for 3. They get to eat before the general population (that’s a great motivator), and any food/relief is sent to the army first, and then second when it is just stolen to feed the army.
NK has a lot of untapped mineral resources (that they could trade for food and mining equipment). And they also have the Kim dynasty. Now Kim Jong Un. Many still see him and his father and grandfather as gods. KJU no doubt wants to save his comfortable lifestyle, and must be looking over his shoulder a lot. I think that could change if he worked for the people that he ‘governs’. I doubt he thinks much further than surviving the next day.
It’s true that this is takin a hell of a long time. The best (IMHO) way to help NK is to bomb them with information. It’s already happening with cell phones and other media devices that are smuggled in from China. It needs to be the army that is enlightened with information. And as saturation of data continues, I suspect they will eventually turn the tide of the Kim regime.
