How close are we to a full-scale containment policy against the Russians?

It seems our sanctions are hitting hard, the ruble is down 25% from the beginning of the year. I imagine that this will have devastating consequences to the Russian economy.

Which makes me wonder how close we are to the containment policy implemented against the Soviets during the Cold War. Ar we mostly there? Or only at a fraction of what was implemented back then?

Or has economic integration and globalization played such a factor that we could bankrupt Russia despite pulling a just few of the levers at our disposal?

Let me guess : you weren’t an adult during the cold war, were you?

In any case, we’re far, far away from this situation. The “containment policy” included tank divisions ready to rush into the Fulda Gap, missiles a turn of key away from flying and actual wars being fought by proxy.

I think you’re underestimating the dangers of this kind of economic attack. You don’t want to push a country so hard they think they have nothing left to lose and become desperate. That’s when economic wars become real wars.

I seriously doubt the economic effects on Russia are all that severe. I would expect there is a lot of third party trade: the U.S. still trades with another country, that country then sells the stuff to Russia…

Putin discuss the (in his opinion limited) effects of the sanctions in this speech, linked to by Brainglutton in another thread.

(Along with many other interesting things, very relevant to the question asked by the OP)

It’s important to remember that the Russia economy is very much about extracting and selling natural resources. Their economy would have shown the effects of oil prices dropping whether there were sanctions or not. Parsing out effectiveness of sanctions takes more than one simple statistic.

Where this hurts Russia is it has slowed the flow of outside investment dollars into the country. Russia at least a few years ago didn’t want to just be the world’s oil field / coal mine, they wanted companies from the West to pour billions into Russia, send engineers over to work on projects etc. Russia was even building at one point very recently a “technology village” outside of Moscow to try and drum up Russia as a place for IT companies to setup shop. There are good reasons for all these things related to having a diversified economy that doesn’t have feast/famine cycles based on fickle commodities markets, and stifling the inflow of capital from the West is contrary to all of those goals.

There has been large devaluation of the ruble this year, less outside investment, not to mention something like 5% of the Russian budget is going to have to go to subsidize Crimea every year pretty much forever at least if Russia has agreed to send as much subsidy to Crimea as Ukraine was (and I think they have.) Russia’s nonsense lately is like me walking into my neighbors house, slapping his wife, then stealing something from him that slowly drains money out of my checking account for as long as I own it.

Lots of people think Russia = Soviet Union = Warzaw Pact.

Russia is nowhere near the Soviet Union.

Russias economy is almost exactly th size of Italys. Their military spending could be stressed or completly run into the ground by a sufficiently pissed off Norway.

And this is a level they are only capable of maintaining because the EU buys their natural resources.

Good point but I believe they do still have the second most powerful military and the willingness to use it. Perhaps a second major correction to their economy is in order as a reminder of how the world has moved away from settling feuds using violence. Between big/important countries anyways.

I’m confused, so you’re also stealing the wife?

DnR

A serious underestimation of Russia’s military assets and influence.

It’s like a statistical summation and mocking of the Viet Cong in the late 50’s.

Regardless of the sanctions, demonstrating that you aren’t a reliable business partner will almost certainly play havoc with your business dealings, and thereby your economy. Putin’s move on the Ukraine was, ultimately, shortsighted. He was thinking that territory and resources are the foundation for an economy, rather than connections and reliability.

I dunno. If the US, EU and NATO show weakness, Russia will invade other countries. If the US, EU and NATO show strength, Russia will invade other countries.

Nothing of the sort. It is an assessment of Russias economic power and military budget.

On assets, Russia has nukes, and a lot of handmedowns from the Soviet Union, which has gone through 20 years of questionable maintenance, and a fair sized army, but the production capacity and economy is so far behind the west its not even fuuny.

Sort of like the US and Japan would have been in 1942, if “Japan” had had more materiel, but over 50 % of their economy was trade with the US.

Yeah, what could go wrong with that? :rolleyes:

Beware the neocon exaggerators: They were wrong on Russia and the Mideast before — and they’re wrong about the threat now.