In the US it is black market vapes with the dangerous additives, and so you get the young cannibis crowd getting vape lung. It was and still is an “epidemic” in the USA, but has dropped out of headlines. The majority of USA vapers are probably sticking to FDA approved stuff, and so we don’t see abnormal problems, say for a middle aged vaper with the flu. I am speculating in China, where smoking is highly prevalent among males, including older males, a trend started to vape with various mixtures which included the dangerous additivies produced by their factories. The reason to move to it could be: maybe it is cheaper than normal cigarettes, maybe it was erroneously considered more healthy than ordinary cigarettes, maybe it was a novel alternative to cigarettes, and few stopped to think if it might be dangerous. They were eating bat stew, so I am guessing they don’t have an agency like the FDA making sure their food and drugs (here vapes) meet certain safety criteria.
This is why I’m keeping an eye on Vegas deals. I can’t go until May though.
Oh, and I am sure the Chinese doctors did ask about smoking on forms, but maybe not vaping. At any rate it would not be surprising that they missed the connection. The CDC almost missed it in this story I already cited above:
As Broomstick said, there is very little stigma attached to smoking in China. Do you really think the older folks that have died in Wuhan and elsewhere in China had taken up vaping these last years after smoking for 50+ years? (And that somehow it’s a double whammy on your lungs if you vape and get Coronavirus but not for the usual respiratory viruses?)
Jim, do you come up with these theories on your own? Or do you have have some credible source that you are drawing from?
No, we get what you’re saying about it. We’re just not giving it any credence because it’s frankly ridiculous.
I suspect it was a double whammy with other respiratory viruses too. The world has picked one. I suspect it is not a monster virus, and that there weren’t any going around when the Chinese freaked out. But hey, anything is possible, including that the world could have picked a run of the mill virus, but there is a monster virus they haven’t identified out there. I didn’t make up this theory entirely on my own: the CDC made up the same theory for some USA pneumonia anomalies, and in that case it appears to be the correct theory, hence the vape lung epidemic. But maybe that was the coronavirus all along, and there is no vape lung problem.
Fauci drops all pretense:
A few people here have speculated that the true infection rate is probably orders of magnitude higher than the apparent infection rate, because the vast majority of infected people have such mild symptoms that they don’t bother to see a doctor and never get tested. This is clearly false.
Everyone on the Diamond Princess cruise ship was tested and 705 of them were confirmed to be infected with SARS-CoV-3. Of those 705, 7 have already died and 36 more are in critical condition:
So for this cohort, the CFR is at least 1% and at the absolute most 6% (it can take up to 8 weeks to die from COVID-19). Yes, the cruise ship passengers are older than the average American but it’s extremely unlikely that the true CFR is less than 0.5%, especially once the healthcare system becomes completely overwhelmed.
I read something (can’t link to it at the moment) that said mild cases include folks with mild pneumonia. I think a lot of people are incorrectly thinking 80% of infected folks are going to be walking around with some light sniffles.
I have a friend who is totally not hip on current events and doesn’t watch the news. I don’t even know if she is even aware of the virus. She just told me she just booked an airplane ticket to go on a Florida vacation in a couple of weeks. I don’t know if I should be a wet blanket by talking to her about this or not. If I did broach the subject, I don’t even know what I would say. So maybe ignorance is bliss? She does suffer from anxiety, and I would hate to get her wound up for no good reason.
Sent from my moto x4 using Tapatalk
Four of the people who died were in their 80s, one was in the 70s, and I haven’t seen an age for the other two. I think your guess that the CFR is greater than 0.5% for the population at large will prove to be incorrect. But I don’t think we’ll know until there is widespread testing, and who knows when that will happen.
I mentioned this up thread. I don’t think we can draw that conclusion from the Diamond Princess data yet, though. If we are to believe the Chinese data, the CFR for someone in their 80’s is almost 15% and 70’s is about 8%. I believe the average age of the patients from the Diamond Princess who have died is in the high 70’s. So we are still seeing a considerably lower number of deaths than that.
Also, I’m not sure where worldometers are getting their information from, but in any case they say the 36 patients are categorized as serious/critical, not critical.
Chart of CFR by age:
Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk
My Wife and I are going to Key West in a few weeks. Not worried. At least not yet…
Hate to break this to you, but the case fatality rate to date in this older cohort actually makes the exact opposite point that you think it does.
Case fatality rate for this older cohort on the ship, 65+ let’s call it (even though the group apparently actually skews to high 70s), is, as you state, about 1%.
Case fatality rate for seasonal influenza in the United States for those 65+ runs roughly the same 0.9% in the 2017-18 year, 0.8% in the 2018-19 one …
It is pretty much exactly the CFR in the age cohort you’d expect to see if COVID-19 had the same distribution and age-specific case fatality rate that seasonal influenza has. It is completely inconsistent with any claim that COVID-19 is of an order of magnitude higher fatality rate than seasonal influenza’s CFR. It is completely consistent with an age-specific CFR in the same general range as seasonal influenza. (Which again, is, if it infects a similarly large amount of the population, still quite bad, and worse if it infects a greater fraction.)
If COVID-19 had an age-specific CFR an order of magnitude higher than seasonal influenza has then one would be expecting closer to 70 deaths of that cohort.
“Mild pneumonia” can in fact be quite mild. Remember that one of the few kids identified as having the infection was totally asymptomatic - no fever, no breathing difficulty, no cough, no sore throat, not even any sniffles - and had a pneumonia diagnosed on CT with virus identified on swab.
Lots of mild viral pneumonia is a bit of a somewhat persistent cough and not much more. People in fact walk around with these all the time, not any more annoyed than they would be by a case of the sniffles.
No idea if the cases identified were that sort of mild pneumonia … I suspect those that mild never got tested and are not included in the totals, any more than those whose presentations was mild sniffles, sore throats, or diarrhea were. But “mild viral pneumonia” ≠ very sick.
I don’t think much can be gleaned from the fatality rate of the cruise passengers. Even if we assume all of them are elderly, they are not representative of the elderly population in general. The Diamond Princess is a luxury cruiseline, so the passengers were likely quite well-to-do and thus enjoyed better-than-average health prior to getting sick. People who are vacationing also tend to be in good health. Finally, most of the folks received medical care at the onset of their symptoms. The sick ones are still in quarantine under close supervision, which has likely lowered their risk of secondary infections and complications.
I’m sure some useful information can be extracted from all of this, but I don’t think it informs the average 70-year-old American about their risk.
I work for a university. We’ve gotten emails over the past few days saying that they’ve bringing home all the kids studying abroad in every county with a level 3 or 4 travel alert no later than March 5th, having them monitor their health for 14 days (no q word yet, however), and having them finish the semester in online courses that are being created now.
I think this is supposed to be reassuring but somehow isn’t…
^ This.
I agree with you more than disagree. That said the claim as made by Surreal that the rate is evidence for a high CFR, order(s) of magnitude more than influenza, is complete nonsense. To the degree it is evidence it makes the opposite case.
Meanwhile you also have the prison population sample, roughly 500 cases and no deaths last I checked. Not quite the same upper income group they.
Is there less concern in Canada about COVID-19? I sometimes check out the CBC website, and I notice that I have to scroll down pretty far down the front page before there is any mention of it.