That is excellent news for the McCain campaign!
Your conclusions don’t follow. Independents are not necessarily centrists, and they don’t necessarily disapprove of Obama because he’s too far left. For instance, polls are showing majority support for a public health care option, even though Obama is giving every indication that he’s backing off from it.
The Dems may be blowing it . It remains to be seen. If they have the guts to push through a major health care change including single payer they will win big. There are people in the party doing doomsday calculus which to them the single payer is politically dangerous. But it has an enormous upside. If they fix the health care system and stop[ it from being a money and soul sucking enterprise, they could get love for generations. Wimping out will feed the gutless Dems mantra as those who don’t have the right stuff to fight for their beliefs. This could be an historic moment. The Dems have an opportunity to change the political map. I hope they have the nerve to follow through.
With all due respect to my fellow posters and no intent to Junior Mod., may I point out that the question before the house in this thread is how the outspoken commentators of questionable veracity came to be seen as leading the conservative movement. Allowing it to be turned into a debate on the impact on the Democrats of health care reform is neither productive nor germane.
I would be most interested in what people think of Der Trihs’s hypothesis (Restated, “Bad spokesmen drive out good.”) I find it a fascinating concept, and wonder if those who pay closer attention to political matters than I think it has merit.
Rasmussen: 51% say Congress too liberal. 22% say too conservative.
People think Congress is more liberal by more than a 2-1 margin. That’s not a a good indicator if you think they should go even more to the left.
Anyway, getting back on target. Maybe this is wishful thinking, but I honestly think the libertarians are starting to gain influence. Not the Libertarian party, which has way too many fringe elements in it. But libertarian Republicans, and libertarian-minded independents seem to be gaining ground. These are moderate libertarians like George Will, Jonah Goldberg, P.J. O’Rourke, and a big swath of the most active ‘right-wing’ web sites. Glenn Reynolds at InstaPundit is a Libertarian, and he probably gets more hits than anyone else on the right side of the political internet. More and more Republicans in the House are claiming to Libertarian-leaning.
A large percentage of independents describe themselves as socially liberal and fiscally conservative. That’s on the libertarian axis, although probably towards the moderate end.
Anyway, if the center of gravity shifts more towards the libertarian right than the social conservative right, I think you have the basis of a new coalition with a lot of independents. A Republican party that focuses on fiscal conservatism while remaining relatively socially moderate or liberal could pick up a lot of independents in place of the social conservative energy it might lose.
59% & 53% are majorities for approval. You just contradicted your own statistic in the next breath.
Do you really think you can get away with that kind of bald-faced lie?
There were false assumptions salted through post #36, but post #39 takes balls of steel.
I’m done with you. Fraud.
Thanks
Furthermore, it’s amazing how many conservatives are still so oblivious to (or in denial of) how far leftward the political center-of-gravity in America has moved and is moving.
At this point, Obama is probably rather to the right of the center.
Actually, that was a typo on my part. It definitely is DISapproval, which you would have known had to actually read any of my cites. His approval rating looks even worse - the same poll which found a 53% DISapproval rating found that only 43% of independents approved of the president (the others having no opinion).
Here’s the Zogby result for you again. Since you apparently have trouble reading cites, I’ll make it easy for you and quote from it:
There. I even bolded the relevant sentence for you, in case you have trouble reading paragraphs.
You know, if you’re going to toss around words like liar and fraud, you really should take a moment to read the cites first, or people might just stop taking you seriously.
Off-topic, but Zogby is relatively horrible. If there’s another independent polling organization that that has numbers for the same question, go with those and ignore the Zogby poll.
Link. Note that the poll you cited is indeed an internet-based poll.
Zogby’s polls seem to have more variance in them for sure. There are times when that works to his favor and he gets something right that other polls miss, and at times it works against him.
I didn’t realize it was an internet poll. That lowers its credibility somewhat. However, there are other polls which have disapproval ratings almost as high. The CNN/Opinion Research poll has disapproval among independents at 53%. Rassmussen has Obama’s overall approval at 49%. They don’t break out independents, but you’d think that since Obama still has approval ratings in the 70’s and 80’s for Democrats overall, his approval rating among independents has to be pretty low.
That CNN/OR poll had his overall disapproval at 45%. Rasmussen has it now at 51%. I would guess that puts disapproval by independents in the same range as Zogby’s poll. To be fair, other polls don’t find Obama’s overall disapproval that high. Gallup has it at 40%, with an approval rating of 53%. That’s the best poll for Obama taken this month.
Count me in. I was promised transparency in govt and finance, diplomacy and reduced military involvement abroad, UHC and an end to exorbitant Wall Street bonuses. I’m still waiting.
Me too! I’m definitely registering with the Republicans now 
Clearly, the Pubbies are all set and positioned to come roaring back! And how can they fail, with Palin leading them! No, wait, Romney leading them! No, wait, Gingrich leading them! Dole! Dole leading them! Guilliani?
Sam, did you notice the breakdowns in those polls? Much of the drop in approval is due to Democrats and Independents disapproving more; hard-lefty sites like Daily Kos express a lot of disagreement with what Obama has done, because he’s gone to the right.
Certainly that’s true. However, it’s also true that in general, people think the Congress is too far to the left than they think it’s too far to the right, by a 2-1 margin.
Perhaps what this really exposes is that Obama’s got a real problem on his hands - move right, and he’ll lose his base. Move left, and he loses more independents and moderates. Maybe he’s just destined to govern with approval ratings down in the 40-50% range, no matter what he does. That seems to be the norm for presidents outside of extraordinary events.
It’s actually extraordinarily high for someone governing during a recession.
Don’t get your hopes up. There is no ground swell for right wing values. The deflated approval ratings are, to a large extent, the result of an unprecedented media propganda campaign to (sometimes literally) demonize the man and everything he does. That strategy will have diminishing returns. The stock market is recovering, and so will the economy. Eventually people are gong to get tired of the hysterical blubbering from the right every time the President tells kids to stay in school or eats a cheeseburger and his poll ratings will recover. There is no indication, in any case, that the public is clamoring for a return to Bush era, religionist, authoritarian neo-conservatism. The marginal success of this current onslaught from the right will not last much longer. They’re starting to overeach. The school speech thing is asinine. The more the right keeps pulling shit like that, the more credibility they’re going to lose.
I kind of wish Obama would be more aggressive about fighting back against the garbage, but his style is pretty low key, I guess. He doesn’t have any brawler in him.
Still better than Rasmussen, I should think.
Obama still hasn’t figured out that there are no votes for him to pick up on the right. He would have to channel Bush Jr. to get any of that support. If he wants to accomplish any of his goals he is going to have to dance with the folks that brung him.
No, he’s right in the sense that there are rational and reasonable conservatives out there he can find common ground with. They have minds, and opinions. They just don’t have any guts.