How did the Russians actually influence the election?

I keep hearing this and unless I’m missing something there are only two allegations:

  1. They hacked the DNC email server to reveal that they are twats that were manoevering to get their hand-picked choice elected over a non-Democrat. Sure it makes them look bad but was anyone really surprised? And did it really affect Hillary in the General?

  2. The had a mole (Michael Flynn) in the Trump campaign and maybe more contact than that though I haven’t heard anything indicating they worked directly with Trump. So how did that actually help Trump’s campaign?

So did either of these influence the election? Was there more involvement I don’t know about (like hacking voting machines? illegal campaign contributions?)

Principally, they created false news stories and promoted them using fake accounts. Effectively, they ran a whole bunch of anti-Hillary advertising on Facebook and Twitter.

Team Trump used a bunch of their fake news in his campaign, helping to spread it even further.

And, of course, the Russians dumped the DNC information onto Wikileaks.

How effective this all was would require knowing the total readership they gained, in what geographic regions, and then using consumer testing to see how effective the information was on changing a person’s natural inclination. So far as I am aware, no one has done such a thing, but some things that we can say are:

  1. Coca-Cola wouldn’t be the king of soda if advertising bucks didn’t work.
  2. Before glomming on to Trump, the Russians were primarily focused on helping out Sanders. Had you ever heard of him before this election? I certainly hadn’t, and I somewhat doubt the real level of charisma of a cranky old Socialist in modern America to make him a viable candidate for the Presidency. Somehow, he became the Mick Jagger of political candidates.
  3. Similarly, while Hillary ain’t no peach, almost everything that Trump provably did on the campaign trail was far worse than basically everything the Clinton’s have ever been accused of, made an enemy of basically every non-white, non-male voting group in the country (which should make him unelectable from sheer math), and yet maintained a competitive polling average through the campaign and in fact won.
  4. The meteoric rise of Marine LePen and several other Russia-backed candidates has been quite impressive in Europe as well.

Elections generally do not favor edgy, extremist candidates. They most often go to the person who can best speak to the middle - where most of the voters are. When you see a result where that is not true, and more than once, I think it’s fair to say that something is working.

Russia’s main influence was in making the middle stay home. The rest was left to the default political map, gerrymandering and all, resulting in a Presidential election where the tally closely follows the House makeup.

I think you will need some citations for this.

No question there were eastern European sites slamming Clinton via Sanders’ forums. That said it is hard to discern if this was Russia swaying the election or cash grabs for advertising dollars (a lot of fake news is meant as nothing more than a cash grab).

It’s effect is hard to assess. Unlike Trump supporters most (certainly not all) Sanders supporters running pro-Sanders sites worked as best they could to stop it. Further, Sanders never abetted these tactics whereas Trump explicitly called for Russia to hack Clinton. And remember Trump speaks well of Alex Jones of Infowars. Sanders doesn’t come close to anything like that.

Listen to right-wing radio vs left-wing radio and you see a distinct difference in willingness to buy into fringe theories between the two sides.

Finally, not knowing of Sanders prior to the election tells us nothing. Prior to runs for president I barely knew of Dukakis or Romney or a host of others.

I have a suspicion the entire “Russians influenced the election” is something of a red herring. Yeah, they mucked around with planting fake stories in the media and on the internet but I doubt anyone in the Trump campaign had direct knowledge about any of it.

I think the real story is more likely about promises to lift sanctions in return for oil leases. Cenk Uygur has talked about this in some detail and it makes sense. Trump is about enriching himself and using the office of POTUS to do that in new and wonderful ways. Manafort, Page, Stone, et al. fit in very well with this idea. The more I read about this the more I think the issues are about these guys trying to enrich themselves far more than it will be about colluding with the Russians to influence the election.

And the link to Russia is? Or was it a time-out for general Trump-bashing?

The most specific accusation I’ve seen is that the Trump campaign used firms like Cambridge Analytica to help aim the Russian botnets and professional trolls at the right targets. The company is linked with Bannon and the Mercers. In addition, Russians needed on the ground help to understand the political culture to know what talking points and memes to push. One of the more popular interpretations is that they didn’t expect Trump to actually win. They just wanted to sow discord and hurt Hillary as much as possible. Putin really hates Hillary.

Kolak of Twilo is right in that most of the discussion I see about the Russia CT nowadays is about Trump and friends and possibly certain members of the GOP raking in laundered Russian money and making shady oversea deals. Trump has connections to Russia going back many years, after American banks washed their hands of him.

I know it’s hard, but sometimes arguments and evidence are presented separately. You have to actually read to the end of the post.

You make it even harder when you don’t present evidence or even have an argument. So make it clearer, what did the Russians have to do with your point 3? They skewed the polls?

It’s important to keep in mind that Trump won by ~80,000 votes, which was sufficient to give him the electoral college advantage. It’s reasonable to argue that the leaked emails (obtained through Russian hacking) and subsequent fallout was damaging enough for Clinton where people who would have cast a vote for her, if only as a protest vote against Trump, stayed home.

Now, because there is no cite I know of that will provide you with the hard data on this phenomenon, you can continue to claim this is just a speculative analysis - which it is - but I submit that it’s not only reasonable, but entirely plausible.

All right, I’ll assume that you can’t fathom the idea that someone would put Trump into a list for a reason other than personal, political misgrievances, and take you at your word that you don’t understand my second to last paragraph.

I have a series of examples of radicalist, fringe candidates who have experienced unprecedented meteoric rises in their political fortunes.

Now, to some extent, it’s not impossible that an edge candidate might make it to the top of the heap but, most often, the same disordered thinking that allows one to hold radical political positions is tied to a general inability to be particularly organized or effective. Similarly, it is generally tied to an inability to be particularly likable to the mass public - a prerequisite to winning a popularity contest.

Nor is it impossible for a candidate to come out of nowhere and rise to the top of the heap. I doubt that anyone had heard of Bill Clinton (outside of Arkansas) before he was elected, and yet one can accept that he was a charismatic and convincing man, just as Obama was. For people like these to come out of nowhere and rise to the top isn’t surprising. They’re organized, charismatic, and centrist.

Chairman Mao, Lenin, and a variety of South American dictators have risen despite radical sentiments. It’s not impossible for someone to be organized and charismatic while also holding radical principals, but one senses that they grabbed the sentiment of the day and ran with it, as narcissistic sociopaths, rather than out of any true belief.

In Trump’s case, I’ll grant that he probably is a narcissistic sociopath to at least some extent (and no, I do not say that it of political animosity - what Trump does, while amusing, fundamentally affects the Ukraine more than it does me, as an American. I am interested in the topic, but I am not alight with rage in any way), but I do not get the sense that he misbelieves his politics, not do I sense that he chose them out of a canny understanding of what the people want. The Mexico wall, etc. has never been a focal issue of any majority worth gaining. You don’t fall on that particular political position simply out of a desire to achieve ultimate dominion of the land. Communism and Socialism promised to turn countries full of peasants into lands of middle class workers. Trump’s America first policy falls far short of that sort of promise.

You might argue that he is charismatic. I suppose I would agree that he is “entertaining”, but you’ll note that every time he actually got any attention from anyone outside the lunatic fringe, e.g. the debates, the polls careened away from him about as fast as humanly possible. Whatever sort of entertainment value he has does not seem to translate itself into political charisma.

Is he organized, then? Look at the botched rollout of everything from the Muslim Ban to Comey’s firing. It’s clear that in every way, Trump does not run a well-oiled and organized anything.

And I realize that I’m focusing a lot on Trump here, but I suspect that if I knew more about Sanders, Le Pen, etc. that I could show similar examples of ineptitude and mass unappealability. We are not looking at a group of Lenins and Maos, we’re looking at a strangely politically successful group of fringe nincompoops. Their political success departs significantly from historic norms.

And while I’ll grant that this success in recent years could simply be down to the effects of social media allowing people to live in sheltered, unquestioned political fantasy lands, it should be noted that Facebook and the Internet are older than 2 years by quite a bit. If that was all it takes, we should have seen radical, fringe nincompoops making real, competitive bids for office before 2016. And yet we don’t, really. It’s more reasonable to assume that it just took that delay from the creation of these technologies to discovering how to take advantage of them. Russia appears to be a leader in this realm, but one assumes that mainstream, domestic politicians will follow and swamp out Russian propaganda well before Facebook and Twitter devise ways to detect and block false news.

Obama may have advertised online fairly well, but he didn’t sink to the level of creating fake news and fake amounts to disseminate them. Whoever runs against Trump should probably do so.

Did the Russians really have anything to do with the fake news?
Most of it actually came from a single town in Macedonia. Inside the Macedonian Fake-News Complex | WIRED

More than you wanted to know on the subject:

Data we need but either do not have, or cannot get.

How many Bernie enthusiasts became hardened* Hillary, Hell No!* due to revelations of Podesta e-mails, voters who supported Bernie but would have followed his lead to seal the breach in the party? Dunno.

How many such voters in the crucial electoral states, the ones where the votes actually matter? In other words, how many more silly old popular votes might Hillary have gotten and still lost? 1 million? 3? 5? (n+1)?

(“Nillions”, perhaps, rather than “millions”. If they don’t count, why count them?)

Further afield, did Russia successfully interfere with the mechanics of voting rather than just the propaganda about Hillary From Hell? I rather doubt it, I don’t think they are that good! But I’d rather know than doubt, but there’s damned little chance that I will.

Informative answers welcome, handwaves and empty scoffing more likely.

I don’t know how you could ever know this. We can’t prove a negative. All we can say is that we don’t have any convincing evidence that Russia interfered with voting / vote counts / etc.

Just to expand on this one, there are two separate “hacks” that they are accused of:

  1. the DNC email system

  2. John Podesta’s gmail account (via a phishing scheme)

I am no fan of the President, and I think that the cozy relationship that several of his advisors have/have had with the Russian oligarchy/government is not comfortable. And I’m not pleased to see the Russians having any significant effect upon our election process, which they apparently did (the cumulative effect of the whole email thing, let alone the “face news” disinformation effort certainly had an effect upon a race that was decided in four states that had margins of fewer than 50,000 votes).

However, there does not seem to be much evidence that there was actual collusion between the Trump campaign and the Russian efforts, and no one has managed to produce evidence of any sort that I’ve seen that Donald Trump himself was involved, or even knew what was going on. Under the circumstances, this really doesn’t look as promising as the Democrats appear to hope it will be in the way of getting rid of the President. Of course, as Director Comey was saying, it’s all about the money, so following that might change things up.

In the meantime, I think Democrats need to stop being morally outraged at the fact they lost. They remind me a lot of how Republicans acted after President Obama [del]somehow stole the election in 2008 from McCain[/del] won in 2008. I didn’t think it was pretty then, either.

But you are ignoring the fact that Hillary won the popular vote and that Trump just wrote his own impeachment papers.

“Useful idiot” is not an impeachable offense. And if Trump is drummed out of office but is technically not guilty, I am going to feel kinda bad. No, really! AS I said before, I don’t think a hard-boiled KGB cynic like Putin would ever, ever trust an uncontrollable blabbermouth to keep a secret.

One thing we might find out is how many of our fellow citizens are impervious to fact and reason. Useful information. Depressing, sure. Oh, yeah.

The main takeaway from all this is that Hillary’s campaign was so weak a bunch of nasty stories from those nasty ol’ right-wingers and their nasty ol’ traditional KGB allies threw the election. And her side are gonna keep whining about this until they fall into comas because frankly they have nothing else. She lost to Donald Fricking Trump for Gawd’s sake. That is no mean feat.
Page after page reinforces the conclusion that this is a woman who does not, cannot, does not want to learn from her mistakes.

When you think about her policy history, this rings true. After all, she voted to overthrow the secular socialist dictator of Iraq in 2003, lost the presidency in 2008 because of that vote, yet then as secretary of state advised President Barack Obama to arm and fund the radical jihadis against the secular socialist dictators of Libya and Syria. About which — despite creating two failed states — she has no regrets. There’s really no other way to put this, so I’ll just say it: this makes her an idiot.

She didn’t have the right personality to lead human beings. She didn’t deserve to be president. America, and the world, are better off without her.

The Japan Times — Why I’m Still Happy Hillary Lost

That’s Ted Rall, btw, not Ted Nugent. Good solid leftist compared to McCarthyist people here and in the corporatist Clinton camp.

They should have run with Bernie.

I don’t disagree with almost anything you wrote, but:

  1. I have spent quite a bit of time on this board - not a known Republican hangout - and I can’t say that I have seen any real support for Hillary, calls for recounting or redoing the election, nor any statements to the effect that she should have been the President. There’s been a lot of conversation about not having foreign powers attacking our country, a lot of criticism about the choices that Trump has made as President and hand-wringing on that front, and wishes that we weren’t stuck with him. But on the whole, there has been complete acceptance that he is our president. All complaints about him are because he’s a crap President, not because people are longing for Hillary. All worries about Russia are because they made an attempt to pervert our democratic process, not because anyone much cares that Hillary Clinton got shafted. Your average liberal is probably not losing any sleep over the concept that Hillary Clinton didn’t get a fair deal in the election. Quite a number would, in any other year, probably be quite happy at that prospect.

  2. Bernie would have been better, but probably only to the same level as Jeremy Corbyn. He’d go off into a corner and sulk for not getting his way. He’s better as lead complainer for the left fringe than as a leader.