A month and a half from a presidential, gubernatorial, senatorial, or representative election, how much should I be leading in to guarantee winning the popular vote, statistically speaking? If I’m up 55-45, can I start counting my chickens? If I’m only up by, say, 8 points, do I win maybe 75% of the time? Does the type of race matter? Perhaps being the incumbent senator with a 6 point lead is better than the presidential candidate of the challenging party having the same lead.
So Dopers, what stats can you throw at me? Let’s assume that no scandal breaks or a catastrophy occurs.