How do the secret services know that a "honeytrap" will work?

I’ve often wondered exactly how accurate (or how successful) a honeytrap is. This is basically a trap set for a particular “target” (say a top level diplomat) who is seduced by a secret service agent of some kind in order to obtain (presumably) valuable information.

But how do these guys know that the target in question will fall for the bait? I mean seriously, not to kid around or anything but aren’t men/women (especially women) more difficult to catch than that - or do you simply dangle the specimen in front of our eyes and we go crazy with desire?

I realize that they recieve training and stuff, and that they tend to go for more vulnerable (especially in the case of male agents going after women, they pick lonely or abandoned females) “prey”, but I just don’t see how at the operational level this technique can be relied upon.

How is this “black” art so successful?

Generally speaking , the honey trap works best on entry level newbs or people that are coerced into joining up with some organization that the opposition wants penetrated. A top level diplomat will have a certain amount of knowledge about how much s/he is worth.

Psych evaluations , credit reports , sexual preferences , sexual proclivities. All a honeytrap really is , is blackmail , nothing more. You cheat on your wife, do this or she finds out. You like men on the side , do this or your wife gets these nice glossys , you have an underage prostitute on your last company junket to some third world country , do this , or the law gets your dossier.

Because there will always be gambling addicts , drug addicts , pervs and others out there , who lead a double life , Identify them and they can be blackmailed.
Declan

I imagine that they don’t know that it’ll work. They try it, and if it works, hooray! If not, they try something else.

Who says that it’s “so successful”? What’s the success rate? 90%? 10%? I have no idea. It makes for good movies, but I don’t think that the public really knows either of the essential numbers:[list=1]
[li]How many are attempted[/li][li]How many succeed[/li][/list=1]Once you know those numbers, you can compute a ratio, and then you’ll know just how successful the technique is.

It would seem like something that might backfire. I remember reading of a Mossad attempt to blackmail, IIRC, a Saudi, but I’m not sure. They got a woman to seduce him and secretly photographed the event. When confronted with the pictures, the guy just wanted prints for his friends. If it becomes an issue, I’ll try to find the book.

Yes, please try to find the book. It sounds funny.