Yeah, I agree that for the purposes of the discussion 2050 vs 2070 is not materially different as a point of discussion.
I think efficiency of around 60-80 pct for electric motors only partially mitigates the 15 pct efficiency of internal combustion engines.
Also, energy density, according to the article.
I think globally most people even lack gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles. On top of that, it’s likely that road and other infrastructure worldwide are mostly still basic as something like 7 out of 10 human beings live on less than $10 daily, which means a lot of oil will still be needed just to industrialize more of the world, let alone move to electric vehicles for personal use.
In the U.S., all new cars were sold with catalytic converters (which required lead-free gas) starting with the 1975 model year. Leaded gasoline was no longer generally available for sale after 1/1/96, though, at least at that time, it was still allowed for some speciality uses (e.g., racing cars, farm equipment, etc.).
So, for those who had older cars which ran on leaded gas, they had over 20 years to figure out what to do.
Here’s a copy of a 1996 press release from the EPA, issued shortly after the final phase-out of leaded gas, describing the timeline.
https://archive.epa.gov/epa/aboutepa/epa-takes-final-step-phaseout-leaded-gasoline.html
Apparently when Brazil started using primarily ethanol to fuel their cars, they solved this problem in cold parts of the country with a small tank of gasoline under the hood, and a pump the driver could activate with a button on the dash so the driver could inject gasoline into the carburetor while starting starting the car on cold days.
ETA: Once fuel injection became common in Brazil, all that got automated, it sounds like.
The Son and his wife both drive electric vehicles, and they always brag on their savings with their operating costs.
However, the older of the two vehicles is quickly approaching its end of battery life. The Son figures it would probably be cheaper to trade it in on a new electric vehicle and eat the depreciation rather than replace the batteries.
I cannot give you make/model/year/replacement costs/etc. Sorry. I know I’m no fun.
~VOW
How does one get gasoline in 2050 for your 2030 vehicle
It will be sold next door to the Thunderdome, duh!
Things that go bump in the night.
Did I mention that gearheads would figure out how to convert your 2030 vehicle to electric?
Well, the future is here:
so ford is full of crap when it says in 5-8 years they will no longer make gas-powered cars? I believe GM is saying the same time frame… Now we’ll see if they actually make it
I would appreciate links to the statements that either GM or Ford will completely phase out internal combustion engines in “5-8 years”. The closest I’ve been able to find is a statement that applies only to Ford of Europe.
I can believe that Ford will only make electric cars in 5-8 years, since they hardly make any gas powered cars now, and the Mustang-E outsold the regular Mustang last year despite supply issues.
Now, trucks and SUVs are another matter. I’m not seeing an electric F-450 Super Duty any time soon.
In the United States, yes. On other continents cars are still in production. That’s what makes any flat statement so difficult.