Wouldn’t be a terrible thing if it did, I guess, but here’s why I ask:
My car exploded about a month ago, and I figured before the winter comes (you do NOT want to be without a vehicle during a Minnesota winter), I’d find a replacement. Life is convenient enough for now - I walked to work everyday even before the wheels blew up, ride my bicycle most places, and the weather is nice enough that I don’t mind being outside. But in a few months I’m going to want to be in an enclosed machine with a heater, and I don’t want to spend a jillion dollars on it.
So I was thinking out loud to the spouse something along the lines of, “I think it’s ridiculous for me to buy a new/costly vehicle considering what most people drive in a day, I drive every other week. The damn thing drops $3,000 in value as soon as I drive it off the lot. All I need to do is go to the grocery store.” The plan at that point was to buy something super used with cash, then be done with it. Then the thinking got into, “But you know, if I bought a newish car, I’d take care of it and could own it for a very long time.” The guy looks up from whatever it is he’s reading and says, “You sure you want to do that?” Well no, I’m not sure, but an inexpensive, reliable car that could last me over a decade seems like a good idea. I don’t want to have fret over a winter bucket, or go through the hassle of buying another car every time the old one calls it quits. I also don’t want to buy a new car and finance it for 5 years considering how infrequently I drive. I figured a used/newish Civic/Corolla/Whatever would be perfect. The guy says he gives it 5 years tops before gas-powered cars are as useful as VHS tapes.
I see us moving toward more fuel-efficient, and hybrid vehicles, but I think he’s being ridiculous (or ridiculously wishful) to suggest in 5 years I’d be driving obsolete equipment if I decided to go with a gas Civic. Even the hybrid cars need to get gas, so unless he’s telling me we’re going to be full-fledged electric by 2014, we’re good. I get this mental image of myself being stranded in the middle of the desert lamenting, “WHYYY?!! Why did I purchase this dinosaur technology? It’s been 100 miles and not a single gas station! If only I’d been wiser then!” And then the vultures come.
So what’s up? How long before a gas station is as common as a drive-thru theatre? And I should just get a Civic, right? I don’t need anything fancy.
There is absolutely no way gas cars will be obsolete in 5 years. Hybrids and electric are still the minority in terms of cars being manufactured and purchased, and most cars last a lot longer than 5 years. Think of all the different gas models there are still being made, and then name all the hybrids you can think of. Auto manufacturers aren’t even 50-50% in terms of making hybrids / gas yet.
Gas will be around for a long time, IMO. People taking long trips or hauling stuff are still going to choose a gas vehicle.
oh, and I agree - buy a used vehicle in good shape. A car with a couple years on it is still a very good car - I have a 1999 Honda with over 180,000 miles on it and it’s in great condition yet. Even if something goes wrong and I have to make a repair, I am sure not having a car payment is saving me a lot more than even a large repair would cost. Even a low car payment of $250 a month or so is $3000 a year - that’s a lot you could spend on maintenance!
There are 250,000,000 registered vehicles currently on US roads, of which 99.9% are based around gasoline or diesel engines.
The total production capacity of all the functioning auto plants in the US before the GM and Chrysler bankruptcies was about 10 million, give or take a million vehicles. That includes all the US automakers’ domestic plants plus the US plants owned by Toyota, BMW, Honda, and so on.
So, if internal combustion engines started getting phased out tomorrow, it would be at least 25 years before the supply of electric cars or HCVs or pedal cars or whatever vehicles caught up.
That, of course, assumes that the entire US auto industry could switch over to producing non-IC engines overnight, which of course it couldn’t.
I bought a new Honda Fit last month. I certainly don’t expect it to be obsolete in 5 years. However, unless it dies prematurely in an accident, I expect it will be my last gasoline-only car. By the time it needs to be replaced, I think most new cars on the market would be plug-in hybrid or purely battery-powered.
It’s funny because I said to him, “So I guess in 5 years every car on the road is going to have to go into a giant incinerator because they’ll be entirely useless?” He (surprisingly) didn’t go that far, but thinks it’s a bad idea for me to be getting into this whole gasoline thing on what he says is the tail end of it all.
I wouldn’t car-share to work. Even in the winter, I walked everyday. Maybe three days during the worst of winter, I took the bus. I felt a little silly considering the distance, but I may have felt sillier with a frostbitten face. I seriously live 7 blocks from my job.
Well, it’s all relative. Internal combustion engines have been with us for 110 years or so, so even if they were going to be obsolete in 2040 you’d still be getting in on “the tail end” if you bought one now.
Those two sentence fragments are incompatible. At the risk of very mild exaggeration: In Minnesota, a ten year old car is very old; even a seven-year old car is approaching complete reduction-to-corrosion because of the amount of “salt” on the roads in the winter. This process is independent of how new the car was when it was introduced to Minnesota.
My advice is: buy the used car (used from somewhere warmer in the winter), and re-evaluate once it turns into a pile of dirty rust in about five years.
Does he even understand the technological limitations of electric cars? There are a lot of people who seem to think that once someone develops the right battery, it’s electric all the way. The issues around electric cars go way beyond getting a battery that gives you “enough” range.
If they developed an electric car of equal quality and performance to current cars, that sold for $1,000 (i.e. everyone wants one today) it would probably take 10 years to get all the infrastructure in place to support it. People would also probably STILL want gas powered cars for longer trips that electric cars can’t handle effectively.
We might be seeing the very beginning of the end, but it’s going to be a mighty long tail there. This is not an area where new developments routinely make old technology obsolete in a relatively short period of time, such as with home audio or video equipment. It’s still possible (though of course not usually desirable) to drive vehicles that were made when wax cylinders were the state of the art for listening to recorded music. That prediction of obsolescence in five years is pretty far removed from reality. Actually, I would say very far removed.
Get a several-year-old car of the type you’ve mentioned, and you’ll be fine.
Ha ha! I’ve only been in MN for about two years, so maybe I don’t know what I’m talking about, but I don’t see any reason a garaged, and lightly driven car couldn’t last a decade. Hell, my gal pal has a 1996(?) with something like 80,000 miles on it, and it runs like a champ. Minimal rust.
Right. Even if within 5 years no new cars were powered by gasoline only, does that mean recharging stations would pop up overnight? I think the real story is he wants me to buy one of those goofy looking golf cart things I see all over the place.
According to “Back To the Future,” we’ll have flying cars by 2015. Just keep it a few years, then have it converted to fly when the technology becomes available.
My car is 10 years old and has no real visible rust as far as I can tell. Michigan winters are going to be comparable in terms of snowfall (we get tons of lake effect here) as well as salt on the roads. I do a car wash once in a while with the underbody wash to get the salt off under there, and it seems to be fine. Maybe cars now have better rustproofing than years ago?
Yeah, even my 1994 that finally gave up the ghost on me didn’t have too much rust, and that car was older than 98% of the little teenaged shits being rowdy at the movies.
So since it’s only 7 blocks, have you considered maybe something like a Segway instead? I have no idea how it would do in the cold, but think of how rockin’ you would look as you roll up in a saran-wrapped Segway
