So I keep on reading about how Obama might have trouble getting elected because of his inexperience and Hillary might have trouble because republicans loathe her and I really don’t have a context to put it in as to just how much of an impediment these things actually are.
So I thought it would help to compare the state of the playing field now compared to a similar period of time before previous elections. Was there generally a consensus by now as to who the major players would be or could a dark horse still arise? Of the people who were to become presidential candidates, was there similar sorts of scepticism about thier fitness to run? What were the big things which people thought would knock a candidate out of the race at this point? How well could you predict the outcome of the race?
I’m too young to have really lived through anything but the Bushes and Clinton administrations so a sense of context would help a lot.
I’d say it’s about the same, if anything a little advanced of the old-timey days. With the primary seasons so advanced that by March of the election year we know who the candidates will be there’s a strong push to get out there early because the primary season is so short.
It also helps fundraising to get out there as far in advance of the race as possible to build buzz, a contributor network, and possible force other rivals out prior to the primaries through $$$ dominance.
So having several candidates declared from both major parties essentially two years prior to the next president being inaugurated is an unusual thing. But it’s something that’s been building for some time.
Well, Oprah Winfrey is an entire different topic for another day, but I’d say not as great. Obama has Oprah’s fans behind him, and whatever you might think about Winfrey, that’s pretty powerful.
While he’d do just fine without celebrity endorsements (his buzz long preceded her jumping on his wagon) that is really not the subject of this op Mr. Nuggets. There are plenty of other threads devoted to Obama-bashing and Obama-mania. There will be more I am sure to compare and contrast HRC’s appeal vs his and who will dislike each of them more and why, even more speculated about potential had-ons between each of them and probable Republican nominees. But this thread is asking about how past election cycles were shaping up at this point (and yes, inviting the “no one heard of Bill Clinton …” style comments).
Do you have something to say about that? Cause I may be approaching 50 but I still cannot really recall too m uch about the early fields (other than that the candidates I liked were most often eliminated before I ever got a chance to cast my vote … I really liked Tsongas! :))
On the Democratic side, this field looks great. Clinton, Richardson, Obama are three interesting candidates. Obviously, this election is one the Dems think they can win. Compare this with the dull slate in 2004: Kerry, Lieberman, and Gephardt.
