Currently (so far as I know), the American Red Cross does not accept blood from gay men who’ve been sexually active. I’m looking for a factual analysis of the risks of allowing gay men to donate. (Note: I’ll use “gay male” throughout to refer to someone who has had male-male sex at least once since the spread of AIDS began.)
Here’s basically what I want to know:
Presumably, at least some HIV infected people attempt to donate blood to the American Red Cross each year. Based on the RC’s average number of donors per year, and estimates of the percent of the non-[gay male] population unknowingly infected with HIV, about how many HIV infected donors do they actually get per year? (I’m assuming people who know they have HIV don’t donate.)
Based on the level of accuracy of whatever test they use to check the blood for HIV, about how many HIV infected samples actually enter the blood supply each year (if any).
Assuming that about the same percentage of gay males would donate if allowed as non-[gay males] do currently, and given the estimated percentage of American gay males unknowingly infected with HIV, how many more HIV infected samples would the American Red Cross receive if they accepted donations from gay males?
How many more would actually make it into the bloodstream? (Again, based on the level of accuracy of the tests they use to identify infected blood.)
If you don’t want to do the math, basically I need to know:
*- percent of American non-[gay male] population believed to be unknowingly infected with HIV. (If possible, intravenous drug users would be excluded from all counts, since they’re disallowed by a separate restriction).
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percent of American gay male population believed to be unknowingly infected with HIV
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percent and total number of non-[gay males] who donate blood to the American Red Cross
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total number of gay males in America (really, I’d want the number who’d be elligible to donate if not for the no gay males restriction.)
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percent chance that the method of testing blood for HIV used by the American Red Cross gives a false negative*
Obviously, a lot of these numbers will be estimates, but the more accurate the better.
Also, if you can suggest a better way to estimate the actual level of risk, I’d like to hear it.