I was going to say ‘reality’, but I’ll go with Cuba. And the Soviet Union. Why? Because they are examples of countries that the US either didn’t trade with or had very limited trade…which is exactly what China would have been had the US not opened up trade and normalized relations. And it wouldn’t have just been the US. The pre-EU Europeans wouldn’t have opened up as much trade either, nor would anyone invest heavily in China or in putting manufacturing in China. Nor would China have been a member of the UNSC without the US vote…and by extension the vote of the UK and France, though it would be moot as all it would have needed to not have (mainland) China replace Taiwan would be the US’s veto.
At the time we are talking about it certainly didn’t…it revolved around the US on one side and the USSR on the other. Even if you posit that having the US shun China that this would mean China would go back to good relations with the USSR, so what? From a trade and expansion perspective that wouldn’t make China what it is today. Following the collapse of the USSR perhaps relations would have changed then, though we still haven’t fully normalized relations with Cuba even today, so maybe not too. Even if they had, China would be a decade or more behind, and in a much weaker position.
I know it’s a thing around here to downplay the US, but don’t take it to ridiculous levels.
We didn’t have to embargo China…we just could have not traded with them, and by extension encouraged our (economically powerful) allies to not do so either, instead of the reverse. China’s history would be totally different, whatever Deng did or didn’t do or what policies the CCP did or didn’t pursue. They would probably be better off than the disaster basket case they were under Mao, but they certainly wouldn’t be what they are today had the US not reached out to them in the 70’s.
Ok, but why do you believe that? Who would have invested the capital and taken the risk of moving manufacturing centers to China if the US continued to shun the area? The Chinese can’t just pull low cost goods and services out of their asses after all. You have to build factories and manufacturing centers, build distribution and who would be footing the bill for that stuff? And who would be buying those goods in the 80’s and 90’s if not the US and our various allies even if you could magically build all of that infrastructure on just what the Chinese right after Mao?
All of those things happened because the US normalized relations. Without that, you wouldn’t have trade relations nearly as strong with even the other regional powers, let along Europe.
Absolutely. As I said, and unlike your argument, both things had to happen. Deng needed to back the Chinese away from the madness of Mao and open up to trade and business AND the US had to normalize relations. If Deng just does his part without the US it would be a fail, unless you are asserting that the USSR would have both normalized their own relations AND could give the economic boost in the 80’s that the US and it’s allies did to China?
And do you think that South Korea and Hong Kong (under the UK) would have opened up for trade if the US didn’t normalize relations? If so, what do you base that on, exactly?
And, I’m sorry to say, but trade DID, absolutely, lift China out of poverty. They didn’t do it on their own and in a vacuum.
That’s not even true today, unless you consider over $550 billion dollars in trade out of a total of $3.5 trillion to be ‘relatively small’. This of course doesn’t take into account the trade China has to countries who use those goods and services to value add and then trade those value added goods and services on to the US. And, of course, it’s putting the horse before the cart…TODAY, the US/China trade might be ‘relatively small’ (to you), but all of the other trade they have pretty much hinges on other countries trading and investing in them…which wouldn’t have happened, or have happened nearly as much had the US not normalized relations with them starting in the 70’s. A large percentage of their trade comes from the EU, Japan and South Korea, and last I checked, especially in the 70’s, 80’s and even 90’s, those countries were all tightly aligned with the US. Had the US not traded with or invested in China, had we not normalized relations, what makes you think those other countries would have?
Have you checked South Korea’s alignment? Seriously, you are, again, putting the cart before the horse. It’s like, to you, history would be exactly the same had the US just not normalized relations with China…everything would be exactly alike, but China would be simply $550 billion odd trade dollars. They would, of course, just import all of the goods and services they get from the US from everyone else, the US tech transfers (a.k.a. stealing) would have happened exactly the same, US companies wouldn’t have invested in them but everyone else would have, and China would be exactly where they are today except a bit poorer. Does this narrative really make any sense to you? In the context of the cold war when this all happened? Even in the context of the immediate post-cold war period? When do you surmise this great technology and capital transfer to China would occur to set up all this trade with the EU, South Korea, Japan and the rest?
Except South Korea wouldn’t have done so, and neither would Hong Kong under the UK. I seriously doubt that the UK would have turned over Hong Kong ahead of schedule, either, in the wake of non-normalized relations with the US.