How Hillary Can Unite the Party by Staying In The Race

[Jurph]

You probably think I’m crazy for suggesting such a thing. If you haven’t been reading the Forking threads carefully you might have missed my allegiance to Obama, and my strong preference that he follow George W. Bush’s disastrous Presidency in order to heal the nation and restore some respect to the country and the office.

So why – why, God, why? – would I argue for Hillary to stay in the race? May 31st is why.

On 31 May, the rules committee will meet to decide whether to seat Michigan and Florida. If Obama has not sealed up the nomination by that date, the decision will be contentious, fraught with peril, and the Democratic Party equivalent of the Bush/Gore 2000 Supreme Court decision. However, if he has the nomination by that date, the Party can choose to magnanimously seat the delegates – possibly penalizing them by forcing them to leave a few token seats empty. It will have effectively marginalized those states’ contribution to the primary, and it will have nullified the Clinton gambit of leaving her name on the ballot in MI.

So: Hillary should stay in the race, put forth a token effort in WV and KY, and stop lobbying the supers. If she needs to, she can argue away poor performance by pointing to her short funds. By the end of May, Obama will be within spitting distance of the nomination, and a quick defection of supers will end it then if not sooner. This obviates the need for Hillary to step aside – she gets to keep her (remaining) dignity, and Obama gets the honor of defeating her fair and square. In her magnanimous concession speech thanking him for a clean and fair fight, she can also highlight the importance of healing the party and letting every vote count. Obama’s response can strike a balance and warmly bring MI and FL back into the fold without needing them to win; they can respond by voting unanimously for the only candidate left.

The Democrats get Obama as the nominee, Hillary defeated fairly without being muscled out, and plenty of goodwill in two key swing states.

[Phlosphr]

The problem is Jurph there is nothing to say the rules committee will do anything to seat the MI and FL delegates. I was listening to NPR this morning and as of right now…the answer is a flat out NO. Even if Hillary AND Obama petition to get them sat. Basically, they have little to zero say with the rules committee -and the former member of the committee who was talking on NPR this morning stated he didin’t think the MI and FL votes would be allowed. So this may be a null factor.

If they are sat, I see no reason to make Hillary drop before June 4th. But drop she will, and it will be to her choosing whether she is magnanimous or not.

[Jurph]

@Phlosphr

The problem is Jurph there is nothing to say the rules committee will do anything to seat the MI and FL delegates. I was listening to NPR this morning and as of right now…the answer is a flat out NO.

For the good of the entire party and the future process, that makes me happy. I’m also glad to hear the candidates don’t have a say – I was terrified that the Rules Committee would be staffed with loyal Dems from the last two decades and that they would be de facto Clinton loyalists looking for jobs in the new administration.

Maybe the FL and MI party chairmen can be given prime-time speaking spots at the convention?

[AuntiePam]

Howard Dean said on The Daily Show last week that those delegates (at least some of them, using some formula) would be seated. I don’t know how much power he has as chair of the DNC, but he seemed quite definite about working something out with Florida and Michigan.

[Shayna]

@Jurph

For the good of the entire party and the future process, that makes me happy. I’m also glad to hear the candidates don’t have a say – I was terrified that the Rules Committee would be staffed with loyal Dems from the last two decades and that they would be de facto Clinton loyalists looking for jobs in the new administration.

Most of them are Clinton supporters, including her Chief Strategist, Harold Ickes. That’s one of the things that’s so amazing about how strident they’ve been in demanding that FL & MI be seated, since it was a majority of Hillary’s people who voted to strip them in the first place! See my post here for a full list of the members of the Rules & Bylaws Committee, and how many of them have declared support for Hillary.

I have NO confidence in whatever decision they come to on May 31st because clearly it will be a biased jury, so to speak. That is, unless they do the right thing and stand by their original ruling in spite of the pressure from Clinton to do otherwise. It will be interesting to see who’s honorable and who’s a loyalist.

Even Jimmy Carter says Michigan and Florida can pound sand.

[Mr.Moto]

@Shayna

Even Jimmy Carter says Michigan and Florida can pound sand.

Yeah, and Jimmy Carter is just a damn expert at winning elections. I remember the stunning successes of his second term quite vividly.

[mswas]

Detroit Local News - Michigan News - Breaking News - detroitnews.com

Michigan compromise could ease Dems’ primary woes

Democratic leaders should consider a recent compromise to recover from Michigan’s controversial mid-January presidential primary.

The deal calls for seating Michigan’s delegation at the party’s national convention in Denver in August, according to a compromise formula for assigning delegates.

However, there is one serious drawback. The plan cannot be adopted unless both candidates Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama sign off. And no one should expect Clinton or Obama to accept a deal that would cost him or her the nomination. Letting Michigan delegates savor convention excitement is not the same as letting Michigan’s flawed primary sway the nomination at a late hour.

[BrainGlutton]

George McGovern, who just switched his endorsement from Clinton to Obama, doesn’t think her staying in the race would help the party:

Hillary Clinton is an extremely talented woman. She’s a highly intelligent one, and she has a right to stay in this race as long as she wishes. But I just hope we don’t see a repetition of ’72, the year I won the nomination. In the last month, a desperate move was made by the candidates I had defeated in eleven primaries, including the two biggest ones, New York and California. I had that nomination all but won, too. But my opponents ganged up on me in that last month and continued that fight right on to the convention floor. So, it was a big gift to Richard Nixon, who was elected by a large majority in the fall campaign, partly because I was so scarred up during the battle for the nomination. I don’t want to see a repetition of that in 2008.

[Mr.Moto]

@George McGovern

But my opponents ganged up on me in that last month and continued that fight right on to the convention floor. So, it was a big gift to Richard Nixon, who was elected by a large majority in the fall campaign, partly because I was so scarred up during the battle for the nomination.

Gee, I’d expect a little more introspection from a man who only carried one state. He might let on at least a bit that he was partially to blame for that fiasco.

In fact, the only groups that went for McGovern in anything resembling decent numbers were black voters and college age liberals like Bill and Hillary Clinton. And these seem to be the only groups Obama is carrying with any strength now.

Now, that doesn’t mean that Obama will or won’t win - just that right now he doesn’t have a terribly large segment of the population in his corner. Half of the Democratic Party isn’t that many Americans.

[John_Mace]

@Mr. Moto

Gee, I’d expect a little more introspection from a man who only carried one state. He might let on at least a bit that he was partially to blame for that fiasco.

In fact, the only groups that went for McGovern in anything resembling decent numbers were black voters and college age liberals like Bill and Hillary Clinton. And these seem to be the only groups Obama is carrying with any strength now.

Now, that doesn’t mean that Obama will or won’t win - just that right now he doesn’t have a terribly large segment of the population in his corner. Half of the Democratic Party isn’t that many Americans.

You are making the erroneous assumption that Hillary supporters won’t support Obama in the fall. I suspect only a fraction will defect. OTOH, he’s pulling in a lot of Republicans.

[Richard_Parker]

@Mr. Moto

Now, that doesn’t mean that Obama will or won’t win - just that right now he doesn’t have a terribly large segment of the population in his corner. Half of the Democratic Party isn’t that many Americans.

You are no longer a member of the reality-based community. Come back into the fold, my friend.

[Mr.Moto]

@John Mace

You are making the erroneous assumption that Hillary supporters won’t support Obama in the fall.

I’m assuming nothing - I was just talking about where Obama’s present pockets of strength were. If he builds on these he’s in good shape, if he can’t he isn’t.

There are an awful lot of Clinton supporters going around saying they’ll wind up voting for McCain in the fall now. Now, when push comes to shove some of these people might not do so - but some of them might.

[jimmmy]

@Mr. Moto

I’m assuming nothing - I was just talking about where Obama’s present pockets of strength were. If he builds on these he’s in good shape, if he can’t he isn’t.

There are an awful lot of Clinton supporters going around saying they’ll wind up voting for McCain in the fall now. Now, when push comes to shove some of these people might not do so - but some of them might.

We don’t need to guess at this. We have months and months of national polling data. Almost all of these Polls suggest that in a McCain vs. Obama race, Obama is within the margin of error and usually wins and in fact this has been pretty consistent since roughly February. It is one reason that Hillary’s “I am more electable” rhetoric rings so hollow.

Last AP, Last CBS