IF this should be in IMHO so be it, but I feel like there should be a factual answer.
Reading this morning that a Chinese Coast Guard ship collided with one from the Philippines, and having recently been reading about increased tensions between the two over contested waters, I was wondering how well they are able to defend themselves, should it come to it.
I found some information on the size and composition of the Philippines’ armed forces, but beyond that of course is the question of training, tactics, maintenance of their kit, and so-on.
SO- anyone know whether they’d be able to effectively defend themselves against real Chinese aggression?
The Philippine armed forces are no match for China’s, obviously, but they’re still a force to be reckoned with. They’re categorized as a major non-NATO ally by the US, which gives them preferential access to US weapons exports, and they have combat experience from decades of involvement with Muslim rebels in the southern islands of the archipelago.
Could any given e.g. Philippine Navy destroyer or frigate hold its own or defeat any given Chinese destroyer or frigate? Probably. A 4-ship formation of one versus the other picked at random? Probably. A few of the very best shiniest new Chinese ships versus an equivalent number & class of the rattiest of the Philippines? Almost certainly no.
Recognizing that if China was serious they would be the aggressor and so the selection of who met who in pitched combat where and when would not be a matter of random selection. The Chinese would be able to ensure the numbers and qualitative match-up all but guaranteed the opening battle would go well for them, absent truly atrocious luck or divine intervention.
OTOH …
Could the Phillippine military defeat an all-out existential attack from China without outside help? No. And neither could any other country except maybe, with extreme good fortune, the USA. And only after we first replace all the equipment and ammunition consumed in Ukraine, which is the work of the next 10-15 years.
The Philippine Navy is kind of runty and small, considering they’ve only got two frigates, one corvette, and a handful of even smaller USCG cutter-sized vessels.
The PLAN is MUCH larger- 62 destroyers, 58 frigates, and 77 corvettes. Even if they’re mostly older and smaller versions of those ship types, they outnumber the Filipinos dramatically.