I can’t speak for the west half of the state, but the east half is definitely Majority for God-King Trump.
A Democrat in Wyoming will NOT be elected. But neither will an Independent Liz Cheney. Use whatever form of math you wish.
Perhaps as close as even odds if the Republican vote is split between Cheney and Wacko McTrumpface.
The last time Wyoming sent a Democrat to the House was 1976. The last time a Democrat got above 30% of the vote was in 2008. Unless Cheney wins the primary, she’s toast. Getting the Jackson Hole Democrats on her side isn’t going to change that.
Exactly. So she looks at the deal and goes, “I can vote how I like, and all I need do is caucus with the Dems.” The Dems look at her and go “The WY rep is voting against us 100% of the time, but this way if we ever need her to cross over, she will do it.:” Win win!!
Honestly…f&ck the Cheneys. They had a lot to do with the current state of affairs. They trained the pack of pit bulls to maul people. Now they’re the ones getting mauled. Tough shit.
Reminds me of when I lived in the South, and members of the outside party would vote in the primary for the majority party’s least offensive candidate. Didn’t matter whether they were trying to get an acceptable candidate, or just split the other party - it never worked.
The democratic party can’t get this level of loyalty out of a lot of democrats.
I don’t think there is any actual value in the dems endorsing her. If she runs as an independent and has a prayer they should just not run a candidate of their own. The only theory where she could win would be if democrats vote for her, and she cuts into the republican vote. A dem endorsement makes that less likely.
Even if this all happened the way you think (doubt), it is based on the (IMHO Unlikely) opinion that Cheney would stay bought. And I don’t think she will. Other than the one issue of Trump PERSONALLY putting her in harm’s way, she was pretty much supportive across the board of his/the party’s agenda. And if, and this is a big if, she actually IS voting her conscience, then for G-d’s sake, why would she compromise on an issue important to her conservative values, especially in a tie, just because an evil Dem helped her get elected for their own selfish purposes?
So you don’t buy this whole “I disagree with her politically, but at least she has integrity” thing? I’m talking about a very simple agreement here: /'Liz, you can vote however you want to, and we’ll try to see that you vote last on any issue that’s close, but if it looks like it will come down to your vote, we’ll want that from you. Historically, it hardly ever happens that a House Vote is that close, but if it is, you’ll give us yours." You think she’s enough of a snake to agree to this and then screw the Dems over when push comes to shove? Interesting.
I’ve also got a theory about how the Dems can turn the state of Wyoming blue permanently, and it’s a doozy. Maybe for a whole separate thread?
I think that no politician in the history of politics would ever have kept to that deal. The only difference of integrity is that some politicians would never agree to it at all.
Besides, she’s got a much easier and more realistic route to holding her seat: Winning the Republican primary. Maybe there’s only 30% of the state who would vote for her, but with enough challengers, that would be all she would need, because in Wyoming primaries, the plurality wins outright, without need for a run-off. What she needs to do to accomplish this is to make herself more vulnerable, so that all of the Trumpists think “this is my chance”, and all get on the ballot.
I don’t think there’s any merit to the Democratic Party formally endorsing Cheney. Individual D-voters may consider registering a Republican for the primaries and voting for Cheney though - the benefit of this would be to piss off the Republicans who locally will be forced to vote for a never-Trumper in the general (or abstain and let the Democrat win - the horror!) and collectively will still have to deal with Liz Cheney being a thorn in their side. That’s a benefit from the Democratic perspective.
If this is the “Make DC a part of Wyoming” thing, we’ve heard it.
Not exactly. But where have you heard it? I should read up on the “DC a part of Wyoming” thing so I can if I’m duplicating anything. My plan is a lot more ambitious than that, and turning Wyoming blue is only a small part of a much larger goal.
That’s pretty cynical, Chronos. “We’re offering you a deal, a more or less permanent seat in Congress in exchange for your agreeing to do something for us that will almost certainly never arise, and if you screw us over, we can withhold our support and then you won’t ever get to be elected to Congress ever again” and you say no politician ever would go for it and live by it? Is this a frog and scorpion kind of thing?
American politics has very little party discipline. There’s relatively more of it in the house than the senate, mostly because the senate winds up being the more moderate chamber so there is less point to buck the party while a bill is in the house.
However the most likely tie-breaking votes would either be in something like a vote-a-rama or in a committee. The democrats get burned in razor-thin votes by their own party in vote-a-rama amendments. At a minimum if Cheney wanted to avoid taking any controversial votes, she would have to accept getting zero committee assignments. And even then I’m not sure what the plan would be in a vote-a-rama because she wouldn’t actually know if she was a free vote or not (and likely in some cases wouldn’t even know which way leadership wanted her to vote).
All minor stuff to be negotiated–what her committee assignments would be, what they would not be, what her votes would be within committee (as opposed to on the floor)–all of this is far better for Liz Cheney than losing her House seat altogether, and better for Dems to keep their majority in the House altogether.
You are grossly overestimating the value of a single seat (of 435) in the House. And under your scheme, Cheney’s would effectively only count as 1/100th of a seat for the Democrats as far as voting goes.
Liz Cheney has greater chances of survival than most of you think. There was a vote in the Wyoming Republican establishment to censure her for voting to impeach. It failed. @Roger_That is a dreamer, putting it as diplomatically as possible. Wyoming will never turn blue.
I see a path for her. Suppose Don the Con gets tried and convicted for something big enough that even a lot of Republicans admit that he was nothing but a crook. Then maybe enough of them say “You know what, Liz. You were right all along.” The election is still nearly a year and a half away. Maybe it happens.