Maybe not, but the human world is built to be navigated by things with the human form.
Yeah. A factory can be made to be optimized for robots, but humans want their homes and public places to be built for the human shape. Plus, a robot with a human shape has the advantage in being appealing to humans.
At any rate, given the way so-called AI is being pushed into tasks it can’t do well and forced on people who don’t want it, I expect the answer to the OP is "sooner than you think, and sooner than it can actually do the job". Companies are desperate to fire as many humans as possible, and replace them with machines that don’t draw wages.
As soon as there are robots even vaguely capable of doing jobs like plumber and electrician, I expect that a lot of plumbers and electricians will be fired and replaced by robots that can’t actually do many of the tasks they are supposed to perform. And companies will both ignore the complaints from their customers, and be honestly confused why their profits aren’t increasing.
Well put. This video makes the same point.
The outward facing portions are (usually). The infrastructure parts, not so much.
I’ve never really bought this. Sci-Fi is filled with “cute robots” that people love, and who look nothing like a human. Start with R2-D2, and work your way down the list.
It’s Uncanny Valley 101-- “cute” robots are fine, up until they become realistic and anthropomorphic enough that they almost, but don’t quite, seem human. Then they enter the creepiness of the ‘Uncanny Valley’.
For homes, I don’t know that maintenance will be taken over by robots. Anyone who has done home repair knows that nothing is every easy or goes as planned. There’s always gotchas along the way that need improvised and innovative solutions implemented with sweat and liberal use of cussing. But I could see new construction being done by robots. The layouts could be designed in a way that is optimized for robotic installation of wiring, plumbing, and HVAC. There may still need to be people to do the the final bits, but the bulk of the work could probably be done by robots. They already have robots that can do painting and drywall in new construction. I would guess that employment in the area of home maintenance and repairs will continue to be a viable employment path due to the unpredictable nature of the tasks that would be too complicated to automate.
Plumbers and electricians tend to be independent contractors, not large corporations.
Also just because a humanoid robot CAN do something a human can does not mean that it is cost effective to have it do it. An anthropomorphic industrial robot that can do sustained carpentry work would easily have to be one of the most complex machines invented. I have trouble believing that even mass produced they would be more cost effective than Mexican day laborers for ordinary mundane tasks. A FANUC industrial robot costs like $50k to $200k for just the robot and that’s only an arm! Plus there is power and whatever maintenance the thing will need.
Maybe a site might have a couple robots for heavy lifting or something.
The way I see it, trade jobs are going to be under attack by AI, robotics and IT from several different angles.
The end result is an AI powered bipedal robot that is affordable. That may not happen until the 2050s though.
However we will have augmented reality much sooner, where a trade worker wears AR glasses that gives them advice about what to do. This could give a trade worker with 2 years experience the capabilities and capacity of someone with 20 years experience. It’ll turn novices into experts because after the novice learns the basics in the first few years, they’ll be able to operate at a much higher level of proficiency. This will reduce the barriers to enter the trades.
Plus people will flee white collar work looking for trade work, which will drive down wages and benefits as there is a labor surplus.
Plus people can just use IT to show videos of what they’re doing, and a more talented expert at a central station can give them advice. In between face timing with highly trained experts, and AR glasses, the amount of training needed to be a competent expert will not be that much, meaning we could easily have tons of competent trade workers with just a couple years of training. All these things will make trade jobs much less appealing due to there being a labor surplus.
Boeing is already using augmented reality and are seeing results.
To overcome such issues Boeing has been using augmented reality to provide technicians with real-time, hands-free, immersive 3D wiring diagrams right in front of their eyes. Technicians use a HoloLens to guide the installation of wiring harnesses throughout the aircraft — replacing the “20-foot-long paper diagrams” previously used to complete the task. According to the company, this increased wiring speed and accuracy by 33%, saving millions per jet and allowing Boeing to manufacture more aircraft at a faster pace.
It doesn’t need to be cost effective; it just needs to be not a person, and thus neither owed wages nor possessed of civil rights. Even if it costs more, that would make them popular. Hate is more important than money to a very large portion of the population.
I can’t imagine something like that costing less than any other industrial machine. What does a high-end work truck cost? $100k or more?
Plus how much will energy cost to run it all day long?
How reliable is it?
You can’t put a price on hate…yet here we are.
A couple of weeks ago, I saw a YouTube video about a robot developed by the elevator company Schindler to drill the anchor bolt holes in elevator shafts. There will still be humans involved in constructing the elevator, but this initial tedious and precise step can first be done by a robot. Note that I don’t think AI is involved in this work but it is a robot used in the construction trade.