Watchin Das Blinkenlights

I’m hoping my fellow Pitizens can help me sleep better at night.

Some of you may have seen my rantings about education. Besides the babe opps, why do I foam about college?

I read four years ago that a team of researchers from Carnegie Mellon rode along while an autonomous truck called Navlab piloted itself 95% of the way. No special navigating aids on the road. They are still working on it.

A team from Clemson University has developed a robot gripper called Goldfinger that can outmaneuver a human hand.

I see in the seasonal yuppie catalogs that you can finally buy your sweetie a robotic vacuum cleaner that actually works for less than 15 bills.

I read that new robotic applications are only waiting on cheaper number crunching power, the hardware is more or less off the shelf. Consider that computing power continues to climb faster than a falcon on benzedrene while costs are still in free fall. Current estimates place a computer about as smart as a monkey less than 20 years away for under $10,000.

When the manual labor jobs go away it will happen shockingly fast. The price point for small utility robots will probably go from ridiculous to cheap before we notice, and keep going towards free. I am afraid that it will happen faster than society attitudes and structure can react. I don’t want a mob of unemployed folks on my doorstep, do you? Especially if they are all in shape from lifting heavy things.

What about the gazillions of people in third world countries who are trying to make it over the hump by selling cheap labor?

What the hell are we going to do?

Oh, honey, here, have a Valium. Sit down, let it soak in…

No matter how techno we get there will always be things that need to be done by hand. I’m assuming, perhaps in the wrong, that you are just being silly with this post. There will always be certain things that need to be done by hand:

Nursing: nothing beats the human touch. This encompasses mothering and all nurturing trades.
Crafts: I doubt there will EVER be a computer that has my concept of color and composition.
Love: Sex androids aside, nothing will EVER come close to the love of another human being.

Oh, well, honey, I’m beat and ready for bed… but I’ll think of other things that only a human could do. Work, play or other; certain tasks demand human hands… hmmmm… hands…


Best!
Byz

True, there are many things machines will never be able to do. Still, I have to agree with the OP that it does suck that machines ARE going to continue to take away jobs that could otherwise employ a human being. I’m not sure what can or should be done about this.

Evolve or die?

Byzantine,

Good point. However, from what I’ve seen, most people are going to die ;).

Yep. That’s the one given. If you are born you are going to die. Isn’t it nice that there is at least ONE given in this life? :wink:

The future masters of technology will have to be lighthearted and intelligent. The machine easily masters the grim and the dumb.

– Marshall McLuhan, 1969

Well, you do have a point Byz. In nature’s wonderful balance all the excess population fight it out and the losers die.

Let’s see, the American public is the largest armed force in the world. I’m guessing most people won’t just drag themselves into a snow drift and die quietly. Hmmm. You know, I’m quick but I’m not that quick. I’m hoping for a solution that doesn’t involve burning down my neighborhood.

No way will the ‘new service economy’ be able to soak up all the unemployed laborers. In fact, a lot of those service jobs will be going away too. I’m taking bets on how long it will be before we see the first totally automated fast food emporium.

That’s just the tip of the iceberg. When the graphical integrating calculators came out, we used to joke around that with next year’s model you would just scan the page and hit the ‘solve’ button. Not so many people are laughing anymore. Remember; human intelligence computers will be cheap within 40 years. What’s your plan? All those of you who hope to die of old age by then are exempt. The rest of us better huddle up.

Times are so good that a lot of people seem to have forgotten that times can get real bad too. Scan the last 150 years of just U.S. history to verify. Heck, leave out the world wars too. How about the massive dislocation and generations of misery caused by the industrial revolution? This is going to make that look like a picnic.

I’ll take that Valium if you’ve still got an extra.

This was the same argument against industrialization. Once machines are making all the textiles, and picking all the crops, what are the manual laborers gonna do?!!

Industrialization and computerization increases overall wealth. They do take away some jobs, but, in the end, wind up creating more than they take away. Yes, it’s a bitch for those people whose jobs have become mechanized, but, in the end, they wind up with an easier job at the same or higher pay.

Note the ‘in the end’. There will be short term set backs for some folks.

Why is this in the Pit? You gonna dis the robots? Expect any to fight back and accuse you of fleshism?

Peace.

Konrad,
after seeing your previous thoughts of yours that involved furniture sex, I laughed.
That of course you let us in on your little secret, no worries, I won’t tell.

But,now you are quoting Marshall Mccluhan.
Is he more widely read in Canada, or are you just reading the right things?
I just started getting into his theories, I don’t know enough about him to say whether or not I agree with him, just that I have enjoyed his works so far.

Get out of the pit, and spread your knowledge in GQ.

pat

I’ve found that many of McLuhan’s ideas are worth considering.

My favorite quote regarding McLuhan, however, remains (at best memory):


Tom~

Great. So the only jobs opening left for humans will be hookers who macrame with very cold hands.


If I wanted smoke blown up my ass, I’d be at home with a pack of cigarettes and a short length of hose.

[Why is this in the Pit? You gonna dis the robots? Expect any to fight back and accuse you of fleshism?]

Gee, I didn’t know I was required to square off when I sound off. Hmm, let’s check the rules… wadday know, there ain’t no rules. Look! A shooting star. (Whap!)

[This was the same argument against industrialization.]

Who sez I’m against it? I just mentioned that it is going to happen, sure as death & taxes.

[Industrialization and computerization increases overall wealth.]

Yes.

[Note the ‘in the end’. There will be short term set backs for some folks.]

Yup. It’s the timing and amount I’m thinking about. And I don’t think the phrase ‘short term’ covers it.

For Christmas, if you’ve been very good, you could get an Apple iBook capable of 500 MIPS. Or, an Apple G4 450 MHz capable of 1000 MIPS. Take your pick for around $1600.

The smart guys say that Moore’s law will hold steady for the forseeable future and computer power will continue to double about every 18 months. Assuming prices hold relatively steady, for $1,500 we get computing power capable of:

simple fixed factory robot 1 MIPS 1990
insect brain power 10 MIPS 1994
autonomous camera vision robot 1,000 MIPS 1999
lizard brain power 5,000 MIPS 2005
mouse brain power 100,000 MIPS 2010
monkey brain power 5,000,000 MIPS 2020
people brain power 100 million MIPS 2030

Somewhere around 2015 you will be able to buy little robots that you can give verbal instructions for simple tasks, for about $50,000. Like, unload that pallet of boxes over to that shelf. Drive the van over to the warehouse and pick up six dozen of these. They will be reliable, relatively simple, and have a life span of about three years.

Here in the U.S. we have around 138,000,000 workers, making an average of about $14/hr. Of those jobs, around 28,000,000 are the sort that could be handled by handled by robots that could understand simple commands and tasks.
(This is in no way intended to offend anyone working at a labor job, I spent my time in that world too.)
Each of these workers costs their company around $16,000 a year including taxes & benefits. Over a three year period that’s $47,000, six weeks of vacation, and probably a couple weeks sick time. Between 2010 and 2020 general purpose robots will progressively break that price and downtime barrier.

Even if industrial acceptance lags several years behind, we go from 5% unemployment in 2010 to 25% unemployment by 2025. By 2030, with human level processing power available, most companies would make the move to automate as much of the production work as possible. Of course, they will still need a sales force, management (greatly reduced), and a receptionist. But they will also need custumors. Unemployment levels might hang around 50% or higher by 2035 and stay that way.

[This was the same argument against industrialization. Once machines are making all the textiles, and picking all the crops, what are the manual laborers gonna do?!!]

And the answer is… ?

During the industrial revolution most people went from working on a farm to working in a factory. So what are we going to do next? Face it, not everybody is cut out to be an alpha geek. Even if they were, there just wouldn’t be enough demand to soak them all up.

For the first time ever, a large and steadily increasing percentage of the population will no longer be relevant to production or delivery. From mines to railway, foundry, refinery, mill, factory, delivery truck, warehouse, to retail, less and less people will be needed to make and move the goods. Eventually I expect nearly nobody will be involved.

The kicker is that under the current well established system of private capital ownership, a very small percentage of the people actually own the vast majority of industrial stuff. The rest of us work for them. The whole thing depends on us all making money and swapping things with each other. No job, no money. No money, no swappy.

The same sort of thing happened last time around. Federal military troops were eventually used to put down uprisings of people working at starvation wages. Eventually the laws were changed and the wealth got spread. In the meantime millions led hard and nasty lives.

Sure, 1000 years from now we will all be kicking back around the BBQ, but the road from here to there looks a little rocky. Basically we’re toast.

Time for economics class:

When production becomes mechanized, overall wealth is created (because more goods are produced).

Wealth buys luxury services.

Labor that once went into production of goods moves into providing services (mostly luxury services).

Industrialization gave us the vacuum cleaner to make cleaning the house easier. A strong mechanized economy provides the wealth for many ‘middle class’ Americans to hire someone to do the vacuuming for them.

If you don’t buy it (pardon the pun), so be it. But this is what history has shown to be true.

(And yes, there are other factors, such as increase in pollution and overuse of natural resources, but it still beats The Plague.)

Peace.

Economics class… I love it.

The economic triangle under our present system is the owners of resources, selling to owners of production equipment, selling to workers, who make money working for the owners. It’s a delicate balance. We currently have the old engine ticking over nicely but it takes constant attention and luck to keep it that way. Automation of general labor jobs, and later most jobs, will break the chain and act to concentrate fantasic wealth in the hands of a very few. Gee I wonder what kind of system will replace it?

[When production becomes mechanized, overall wealth is created (because more goods are produced)]

I agree, although the reason everybody gets richer is that the cost of production goes down due to decreased manufacturing costs.

[… this is what history has shown to
be true.]

Sure.

But we seem to have a little nuts & bolts problem with getting from here to there; what are we going to do with 20,000,000 to 50,000,000 unemployed and very pissed off former workers? People who’s skills no longer apply in whatever job market is left? People who may not be able or inclined to take a job in the technical sector?

Sure, in the long run you retrain them, put them to work doing something higher level, find a niche and fill it, all that good stuff. In fact, I expect the long range effect will be to make physical possesions worth pretty much the cost of the raw materials and everyone will be buried in toys.

But this shift is going to happen real fast, real big, and relatively soon. That is usually a bad combination for lots of folks. Take a look at that history again. Times got ugly for a lot of people and it lasted a long time. Scope out the time period around the rise of the labor unions or shortly before. Wide spread misery, harsh working conditions, and large scale social unrest.

[Industrialization gave us the vacuum cleaner to make cleaning the house easier. A strong mechanized economy provides the wealth for many ‘middle class’ Americans to hire someone to do the vacuuming for them.]

Yeah, like a robotic vacuum cleaner, available now from Dyson Ltd in the U.K. for about $3500, soon to get a whole lot cheaper. A lot of those kinds of service jobs are going to go the same way. What we have left is high tech, engineering, mechanical and electronic techs, some management, some sales, some miscellaneous. Oh, and personal service. I guess I could be someone’s butler, until household machinery makes me obsolete.

Look at it another way; if a machine can do your job for less money, that effectively you have to work for less money or not work at all. Competition will pretty much force employers to take the most cost effective path. Since most people sell their time and talents for a living, that’s bad for a huge section of the population and it’s a permanent change. As computing power rises up the scale, more and more sophisticated jobs will make sense to automate. Try as I might, I can’t see anything on the horizon that this many people all at once, can go and make money at.

Of course I don’t expect tens of millions of people in our country to battle to the death in the streets. I’m saying there will be a huge social shift in order to feed these folks, and it will have to happen pretty fast too. I am wondering what it will look like. I’m not liking what I’m seeing.

Judgeing by the number of people who still do not know how to program their VCRs, I think it may be a while before society, en masse, fills their homes with automated vaccuum cleaners.


“I should not take bribes and Minister Bal Bahadur KC should not do so either. But if clerks take a bribe of Rs 50-60 after a hard day’s work, it is not an issue.” ----Krishna Prasad Bhattarai, Current Prime Minister of Nepal

“Listen, you Meatbags!”
“Kiss my shiny metal ass.”
–Bender Robot
Less chat, more splat.

I dunno, I don’t think it’s going to happen.
How many people could drive a car in 1700? Who could type on a keyboard in 1500? Nobody, yet these are skills everyone can do now because they are needed for everyday life. When it becomes necessary to program a computer for everyday life everyone will be able to do it. Technology hasn’t made any lasting change for the Alpha’s or the Gamma’s.

The automated factory of the future will have only 2 employees, a man and a dog. The man’s job will be to feed the dog. The dog’s job will be to keep the man from touching the machines.


The overwhelming majority of people have more than the average (mean) number of legs. – E. Grebenik

I think speakeasy’s got the situation correctly assessed (note swanky, obscene word choice to relfect venue) - the tech revolution is upon us and there will be great change. It’s not just the technology, either, it’s also:

  1. Money is becoming entirely virtual.
  2. Companies no longer need many (or any) employees and many don’t even need office or retail space.
  3. The concept of “Nation” is disappearing. Economic blocks are the future.
  4. We are losing our basic skills and further distancing ourselves from our world and fellow human beings.
  5. No one can do basic math anymore.
  6. Or spell.
  7. Or tell stories.
  8. Or make coherent lists

Revolution shall be upon us!!


Hell is Other People.