All of the short-term estimates we see giving CDs less than 20 years are taking wear & tear into account. I believe that CDs will outlive their owners if properly cared for. Even if the aluminum layer becomes exposed to the air, aluminum forms a very tough oxide coating which strongly bonds to
the surface of the metal preventing the surface from further exposure to oxygen and corrosion.
Even if CDs do eventually “decay” for whatever reason, it is much more likely that it is the years of handling that will render your CD unplayablebefore anything else. I take the precaution of backing up my most beloved Cds to MD, just in case.
It is common to speculate that CDs may some day give way to a better format, but I don’t see this happening in any time in the immediate future. Even thought it wasn’t meant for it, minidisc was an excellent candidate for this (MD was aimed at replacing cassettes). CDs are so easy and cheap to produce that aol sends out millions of them every year just for people to use as coasters, make mobiles for the baby room, christmas tree ornaments, etc.
I think the current hurdle is to develope a solid state storage medium for CD quality sound. That would mean we could get rid of all mechanical parts involved in spinning a disc, tracking a laser, etc. Songs would never skip during playback, and the CD would move on into the world of the 8 track & the dodo.
I don’t know how far along they are with this- but at about 8.8 Mb/minute of audio, that’s one hell of a memory chip needed to hold Dark Side of the Moon. If sound purists could ever tolerate ATRAC or any other form of compression, that 8.8Mb/min figure would come way down.
The objective lens on laser pickups gets dirty so easily in recent models of CD player - especially the changers because of the high degree of [dust/dirt] accessibility to the optical head. And don’t be folled into thinking that you can give the unit a thorough cleaning with one of those cleaning discs. Sometimes that works but many times I have removed much more buildup from a laser lens than a cleaning disc couldn’t even touch. This is especially true if the unit lives in a smoker’s house.
If you still think your CD is “deteriorating”, ask a friend in the service industry if you have one. We can place the disc into a reference player & measure the disc’s signal output & see if it is below standard.
BTW, the chupacabra is still a myth, no? I haven’t heard much about him lately.