How long/much of a lockdown will people tolerate?

Thank you Ms. Antoinette.

BTW, that describes only a mere 78 percent of Americans.

Yeah, that’s great. I know you had to take a shot at me, but if you have read any of my posts that is not what I am saying at all.

What I am addressing is exactly what this thread is addressing. A month’s long lockdown is simply unrealistic and any “flattening the curve” plan that requires healthy people to lose their jobs, their savings, and live life where things are shut down for an extended period of time will simply not work without the most draconian military measures and even then things will only be worse when people start shooting back.

Note that I will not be shooting back, but that is the problem with any of these “solutions.” They are all “People must do X; People must do Y.” Well, if we have learned anything from human history is that “people” will look out for their own selfish interests unless given an overwhelming reason to do otherwise.

Take WWII; that generation made huge sacrifices so that the next generation could live in a world free from tyranny. If you tell people that their own lives must be wrecked so that sick old people might have a bit better chance of surviving this disease and give them maybe a year or two more, well, it doesn’t matter what Ultravires personally thinks and you can take shots at me on here all you want. Any planning must take into account what “people” will think.

And any plan that says we have to continue with what we are doing for six months simply will not work. So shake your head and rend your garments about how terribly selfish people are while the world crumbles around you. I’m trying to be realistic in a world where no politician, Dem or Republican, wants to level with people and tell them that barring some miracle breakthrough in treatment, some tough choices will have to be made.

And how long do you think it will be before people who don’t have emergency funds find out that you do and come to your door asking for help? How much longer after that will they no longer be asking?

Got more liquor today! Not much good food, though. Can’t even find Tina’s Burritos!

So I’m personally worried about a lockdown, or a stay-at-home order or whatever is close to that. I live alone, work from home (thank goodness), but if I really need something, like more food or medicine, we may be screwed on that portion. I also planned to visit family next month, but now, how? I’d have to fly in to NY or MD, get tested. If negative, drive north or south to see mom in NJ. If positive, I’m stuck in one of my sibling’s places till it passes.

So many others are missing out on family care/visits. Our numbers are up, as expected, and I’m also afraid of a panic. If it’s announced we have to lockdown in L.A., people will freak before it is made official. Uuuuuggggghhh!!

Much more to the point, you cannot eat cash and a credit card. What they can do is be exchanged for goods and services. As those start to become unavailable… and with a lockdown thats going to happen, just what are you going to do.

Admittedly paper money might come in useful in some circumstances.

I have not even heard rumors along the lines of a restrictive lockdown like that. Even in those places that are instituting what they call a “lockdown” or a “shelter in place” people are permitted to go to work in essential industries and can leave to go to the grocery store. That would be impossible. Too many people live in urban areas and cannot just go shoot a deer for food. You would have mass starvation if you did not allow the food industry to remain and the grocery stores to stay open.

The only possible way that money could become worthless (and if that happens, it is really Lord of the Flies time) is if this goes on for years and people start believing that the government’s money is tremendously overvalued based upon the few goods and services that remain available.

Psychologicially, I agree a lot of people will reach a tipping point after a couple of months. I reached mine after 2 days isolation with my family.

But much of what we’re calling “lockdown” is just private business limiting their liability and responding to reduced public demand. What are these cranky uncles to do? Bang on the doors of the NFL and demand that football season start on time? Threaten the bankrupted restaurants with a boycott if they don’t reopen? Send bomb threats to the school district if they don’t resume the school year? How can we see a wave of 9/11-like patriotic shopping when all the brick-and-mortar stores are bankrupt and everyone is broke?

I imagine there will be some unfortunate scenes with the die-hard anti-science crowd where they all join in churches to hold hands, exorcise the demons, and prove there’s nothing going on. I like to imagine the ghost of Darwin sighing and rolling up his sleeves for a good old-fashioned culling of simpletons. But of course, they won’t remain isolated. They’ll come wandering into the streets, open-carrying their AR-15’s, coughing on the rest of us and daring the government to stop them. That’s when the ugly martial law scenarios are going to start popping up.

Yeah, 6-8 weeks sounds right. “WAAAAH YOU CAN’T CANCEL SUMMER”

Have you been to an urban area lately? If I wanted to kill a deer, any given morning at 6AM I could go into my backyard, stand quietly between my hydrangeas, and kill one with a heavy shovel.

That’s kind of tongue-in-cheek. I doubt the deer overpopulation problem would last more than a week or two if things really came to that.

I have an emergency fund. Do you know where it’s at? In a bank that I have to go out of my way to get to. It’s that way so I have to think about getting to it. I have no bank card, no check book, I have to go to the bank to withdraw money. The banks are now closing, so how am I to get to my emergency fund?

You’re supposed to have an emergency emergency fund. And five years cash on hand to supplement your emergency emergency fund.

For the majority of people in the world, when they accused of “living beyond their means,” what they are really just doing is “living.” Maybe that’s exactly what some folks have a problem with.

Also at least 30 pounds of iridium ingots, which everyone will demand instead of paper.

This whole thing almost seems like an early dress rehearsal for the actual apocalypse.

If we paused all military and space program spending aside from salaries and rent and the like, and diverted those funds to keeping people afloat and social programs, I wonder how long that would last?

We all get that. The question posed by the OP is how long people will do it.

And the answer is, they better do it as long as it takes – and the government better do everything it takes to ensure this happens, from paying people’s salaries and supplying the quarantined, to arresting those who would break quarantine-- or millions will die and the economy will collapse regardless.

That’s just it though; the severity seems to ramp up VERY quickly once past about 50- below 50 and it doesn’t seem to be dramatically bad- something like 5% hospitalized, and 6% of that in critical care (read “ventilator”) and an even smaller number dead- like 0.15% of total infected or something like that.
Imgur

is a chart derived from a longer study (link to PDF in this thread).

But go above 50, and it rises dramatically. 10% requiring hospitalization, and 12% of them requiring critical care, with 0.60% of all infected dying. In your sixties, it’s more like 16% requiring hospitalization, 27% of those needing critical care, and 2.2% of total infected dying. And it gets worse fast from there. The numbers for people in their 70s are 24% hospitalized, 43% of them requiring critical care, and 5% of all infected dying. Numbers for people in their 80s and older are 27% hospitalized, 80% in critical care, and 9% dying.

So while it’s likely to cut a bloody swath through the truly elderly, it’s also likely to really impact a lot of people who aren’t even retirement aged yet. Most 65 year old retirees have another 10-15 years left, and most people who are 75 have another 5 or more.

Well the bank IS closed right now. I suppose if I was quick I might be able to get enough cash to last me five years. If you don’t hear from me in a couple of hours come look for me at the local lockup.

The government will have to help people, obviously. It will cost billions and hurt the economy, theres no question about that. But the damage would be a fraction of what it would be if we try to keep the workforce operating at full capacity. But if we don’t do it, millions will die and it will cost billions anyways.

I wonder – are you willing to tell the posters here who are above 60 (20% chance of death if infected) or immunocompromised or otherwise vulnerable – “sorry guys, some principals are just too important to break. We cant just give free money to those who need it because they should have been saving up! Wheres your personal responsibility? Tough luck – we gotta make some tough decisions, and you’re just not worth saving”.