As others have pointed out upthread, I think people are conflating two topics - how long the lockdown should last and how long people will be willing to abide by it. Few, if any, Dopers dispute that a lockdown is needed, but the majority consensus in this thread seems to be that people won’t tolerate it for long before flouting it.
Where’s the US Navy when you need them?
Millions dying will hurt the economy way, way more than even months of social distancing. That’s millions fewer people buying gifts, taking trips, going to restaurants, as well as coming up with new businesses and innovations. There is no conflict between saving lives and protecting the economy.
Republicans are preparing their talking points for the “but old people dying is good for the economy” push. The trial balloons are already going up.
Have you done the math on this? Has anyone? I mean, I’m all for saving lives but I don’t assume it’s cost effective.
I don’t know, I should think seeing LOTS of people dying, daily, without any way to access the entirely overwhelmed medical resources is actually pretty motivating.
Sure, if numbers stay where they are the risk looks one way. If those numbers start doubling and tripling daily, people’s motivation is probably going to shift as well. ‘But I still gotta work!’ Is gonna sounds different when you pretty much know it will cost your life. I think anyway.
For the vast majority of people, working will not cost them their life.
For all people, not having food will cost them their life.
People will die from the lockdown, just as surely as people will die from the disease. Social distancing kills people-- Not everyone, not even most people, mostly the elderly. Some of those “non-essential” jobs that are on hold right now actually are essential: The lack of those jobs being done will kill people. Economic disruption kills people. Panic kills people. Heck, even things as seemingly trivial as people using the bathroom in different places than they usually do can kill people: Around here, parts of the sewer system are being overwhelmed, because everyone’s flushing their toilets at home instead of at their workplaces.
The goal is not just to minimize the number who die from coronavirus. The goal is to minimize the total impact. And that means neither overreacting nor underreacting.
I wonder how much the fact that it’s Trump is making this more controversial than it should. People distrust him, and totally rightly so. But, like the boy who cried wolf, for once being right, truthful even, is not having any effect on those who otherwise might be inclined to listen.
Two things are certain. The total lockdown cannot last as long as “experts are saying”, and also that easing of restrictions will probably be not a sudden Thanos type snap “ok, everybody back to normal”, rather it will be a phased opening, with people being gradually permitted to resume activities and drop precautions in phases.
If there was someone else besides Trump, maybe we could right now be having a grown up discussion about risk acceptance and mitigation. Easter is 2.5 weeks away. That’s plenty of time to make plans on how to open, and I mean basic toe in the water stuff.
There is a tale told round these parts. A man who was to face punishment was given a choice between eating a hundred onions or receiving a hundred strokes on his back. He decided on the onions since he felt that this was the easier option. However, when he could no longer stand the onions he begged for the rod. When the rod became unbearable, he once again wanted the onions. This continued until he had eaten all the onions and received all the strokes.
Right now this is the path we are on. Very quickly the lockdown will bend and then break, it cannot be sustained at this level for the time frames being suggested. Then you will see mass flouting of the orders and efforts to enforce them will not get compliance back to levels needed to defeat the outbreak but which will certainly affect the economy. So we end up enduring both onions and strokes, ie an economic meltdown and an uncontrollable pandemic.
I think if any president had flip flopped as much as Trump has, people would be distrustful. The guy has gone from saying this will all blow over miraculously come April 1 to telling us we need to hunker down for 18 months to telling us things will go back to normal on Easter, damned all the dead people, within a span of three weeks. Of course people are not going to listen to what he has to say, because it’s obvious he will say anything.
I think most people understand we can’t go full-on quarantine for 18 months. No one was advocating that anyway. But the president isn’t doing himself any favors by saying “Let’s go back to normal on Easter cuz that would be beautiful, right?!” No, what would be beautiful is a long-term federal plan for dealing with this thing. We know things won’t be normal for a long time even when businesses are allowed to reopen. Millions of sick people and hundreds of thousands of critically ill people will not be “normal” by any stretch of the imagination. Our president should be preparing us for that reality and doing what he can to mitigate the damage everyone will incur. He shouldn’t be setting us up for disappointment with false hope.
Last week he told us we were “at war”. This week he’s already singing “Happy days are here again.” I love me some Obama, but if Obama did something like that I would think he’d lost his damn mind. But with Trump, it’s normal behavior. We’re supposed to shrug our shoulders and have compassion for him since he’s stuck in such a shitty situation. Sorry, but I’m not giving him any more compassion. He spent the little I had left on Monday’s presser.
Why would people die from the lockdown? You seem to be assuming that our supply lines will get disrupted (I’ve seen no evidence of this claim, and people in the industry are telling us the supply chain is full of food and toilet paper and that we are in no danger of running out) or that the government will just allow people to starve in their homes rather than providing basic aid. Yes, if that’s what the government does, things will be bad. Do you really think even Trump is that stupid and/or evil?
I think people are pushing this narrative that people will commit suicide when they lose their jobs/businesses. And they will also commit suicide due to social isolation.
I would argue that none of that is inevitable. We could mitigate suicides caused by a lockdown. But that would require us to think outside the “free market capitalism” box.
:dubious
18 months? Try 3 and I am being very generous. At 3 months you start seeing many small businesses die and a significant number of larger ones go under. At that stage you are looking at a super Great Depression. A bit longer and it’s societal breakdown.
Cite?
That whole line of reasoning is the stupidest argument I’ve ever heard. I wasnt aware anyone except our Fearless Leader was making that argument with a straight face.
Dont some of you care about our youth? The youth that arent even affected?
No School?
No sports? (not even allowing kids to have play dates)
No summer camps?
Ok, it might be fine for the older crowd to gloat how they can stay at home with their hobbies but is it right to take away the lives of the youth?
Lets quarantine those that can be sick. Not those who wont get it.
As a small business owner I’ve been discussing this with others in my position. I’m 62. The recent recession hit my business hard, but I struggled back. I’m tired, done fighting. There’s no way I’d make three months.
The youth are affected.
Some will die, some will have limited lung functionality for the rest of their lives.
The youth can be carriers.
The youth will have to pay for their parents’ funerals.
How long can MrsRico and I stay locked down without too much discomfort? As long as the propane truck delivers and we can pick up market orders. Life’s a bit more tedious but we fossils can take it. How long can LilRico’s family stay in? The grandkids are having a blast on their mountain acreage and their folks work online from home anyway. How long can the cousins last? They sell used cars and newspaper adverts, have health issues and little savings, but they haven’t whined yet.
How long can America and the civilized world tolerate lockdown? As long as supplies last.
I have a law practice. That’s shut, except for opinions on legal matters arising from the shutdown and payment there is patchy. I have some real estate that I own. All my tenants are small businesses, who are closed. They probably will miss rent payments. I am happy to adjust. This continues for 3 months, those businesses close.
What monstro and the others don’t get is that we are not in a recession or depression right now. We are in what was called by one analyst an Ice Age.
The Recession, Depression will hit when the activity starts up again and the level reached is compared with the earlier numbers and then we will know if it is a recession or a Depression. The longer the shutdown, the worse the reduction in activity when it starts up again.