How many cases of post-blackout food spoilage-type hospitalizations will we see?

Factual Questions
1

Even assuming that the vast majority of refrigerated food is treated like toxic chemicals and is safely disposed of, you gotta figure that there are many, many people who disregard all warnings and ingested tainted food. But how much do hospital admissions rise after some event like this? How many people are admitted above normal? What’s the timeframe on an event’s effects? Will admissions rise for a week afterwards? For a month (as people eat tainted frozen food)? How sick do people get from so-called tainted food? Do people die? How many deaths should we expect that are blackout-related?

I’d think a study of events like this one should yield some solid data, and we should be able to make some sound predictions, shouldn’t we?

2

“I’d think a study of events like this one should yield some solid data, and we should be able to make some sound predictions, shouldn’t we?”

Sure. My guess is zero. Most “spoiled food” is safe, if unpleasant, to eat. (Some “spoiled” food is good to eat, e.g., kimchi, kefir, koko, kvass, yoghurt, beer, wine, etc.)

I suggest you make a list of kinds of food poisoning associated with “spoiled food” and try to figure out how cases of such food poisoning would be made more (or less) likely by the blackout. For example:

Botulism - rare, usually associated with canned, not refrigerated food. There could be some increase in foodstuffs contaminated with high levels of toxin because of lack of refrigeration but this could be outweighed by people throwing away questionable food.

Staphylococcal food poisoning - results when food is contaminated by staphylococci (for example, from open sores on the hands of cooks) and then left too warm or not hot enough. If people affected by the blackout observe the same food preparation and storage rules that they everyone is supposed to follow all the time then I wouldn’t expect an increase in staphylococcal food poisoning.

Food-borne infectious diseases (e.g., salmonellosis, shigellosis, campylobacteriosis, toxigenic E. coli, etc.). Disease-causing bacterial do not spontaneously arise in food as it sits out. None of these bacteria are found in food unless it is contaminated in some way with feces from an infected animal. The most important means of prevention by far are avoiding contaminated food and cooking food before eating it. There may be some chance of increased levels of contamination of already contaminated food because the food wasn’t refrigerated properly but, 1. people will probably throw out spoiled food, 2. people will presumably continue to cook the most hazardous foods (e.g., eggs, meat).

The list goes on. I suggest you search http://www.cdc.gov/health/foodill.htm for information on food-borne diseases and search for those that are associated improperly refrigerated food and then try to figure out a scenario in which it seems likely that cases would probably go up after a blackout. Good luck.

An alternative is to look at the causes of outbreaks of “food poisoning.” Thousands have been well described by the American CDC and other investigators and many are associated with improper food storage. However, I can’t recall of EVER reading about an outbreak of food-borne disease associated with a power shortage.

3

Thanks. That’s about what I thought. But the local TV stations are barraging me with bulletin after bulletin about the “need” to destroy all the stuff in my fridge RIGHT NOW!!!

My ice cream bars still have their original shape, for chrissake, and the absolute worst I’d have to do with all the frozen stuff is to treat it like it’s been defrosted, but the TV stations somehow consider it their public service to advise listeners to throw out everything.

4

I don’t rely on news outlets for sound health advice. The probably better informed officials of the City of Ottawa provide somewhat different advice at http://www.city.ottawa.on.ca/city_services/yourhealth/healthylife/28_8_15_en.shtml:

What to do if you have a power blackout

Avoid opening the refrigerator door to keep its contents cold. Food in most freezers should remain frozen for 24-48 hours without power. If perishable food thaws in the freezer, it can be used safely as long as it stays cold. It is best to cook it within a day. Don’t eat thawed, warm meat. In the winter, you can store all perishable food outside in protective containers in the snow.

5

Look at it this way: Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that the conditions your food has been through give a 1 in 1,000 chance of making you seriously ill. Most people wouldn’t blink at that - no biggie, let’s eat! But, when you’re talking about a city of, say, a million people, if everyone had that attitude, you’d be seeing about a thousand people with serious food poisoning.

So. Has your food, specifically, been through enough that it’s dangerous to eat? Probably not. But, odds are that some peoples’ food have become dangerous. So, for safety’s sake, it’s probably not terribly important for you to throw out your food, but it IS a good idea for everyone, including you, to throw out their food. An odd little paradox, thanks to statistics.

6

I’m not following you. One in a thousand odds are still one in a thousand odds, right? What does it matter if I’m one of a thousand or one of a thousand in a million?

7

But if everybody in the city is facing 1 in a thousand odds, then one out of every thousand people will get sick.

8

Which is what I started out asking. My OP was whether this danger was purely theoretical or if some knowable number of people will get food poisoning. Using your numbers, if there is a statistical danger to one person in a thousand, then (since 50 milllion people were affected by the blackout) then shouldn’t we expect to see 50,000 food poisoning cases pretty soon?

I don’t think anything like that number is expected, suggesting that the practical dangers are being somewhat over-hyped.

9

I was thinking about Bachelor Chow and have arrived at Cliff Bars. They have all the nutrition you would need, are easy to carry, are easy to find, they even come in different flavors.

Sometimes eating is fun, going out to dinner with friends, but other times you are in the middle of a project and want to scarf something to qwell the hunger so you can get back to work.

In the 50’s it was thought that by now we’d all be eating meal pills, but that hasn’t happened, just like we don’t all have flying cars.

(And before you flame me, yes, I KNOW, there are one or two flying cars out there)

10

oops, wrong thread, sorry.

11

What about the food that was in the freezer , partially thawed, and then was refrozen when their power came back on?

12

Well, I just pulled that number out of my ass. What I was attempting to point out (and I didn’t do it very well) is that while it may look over-hyped from your perspective, it might not be from the perspective of the Powers That Be. While the risk may be small, a small risk over a large number of people can add up.