Here’s a cheery subject for you. Do you think I’m being overly pessimistichere about civilisation’s prospects?
How long do you think our civilisation has got left? We’ve only had nuclear weapons for less than three generations and there have already been a couple of pretty close calls. There are lots and lots of nuclear weapons out there totally unaccounted for, thank to the break-up of the Soviet Union et al. The world is also in danger of becoming irrevocably divided on ideological grounds – not a pretty combination. And let’s not forget about the potential problems due to climate change, if the worst predictions come to pass. That’s going to add a good bit more tension to the mix.
I’m not talking about the total destruction of the planet here, just the functioning of our civilisation as we know it. Will we make it to the end of the 21st century?
I grew up a stone’s throw from Strategic Air Command HQ. I was firmly convinced as a young’un that I was going to die in a nuclear war, and that it was just a matter of when, not if. Then lo and behold, the Soviet Union crumbled and the global picture changed pretty dramatically.
Now, I’ll definitely agree with you that the ideological division of the world is getting pretty scary. There’s no guarantee that we as a civilization will survive the next century, but the future may well hold some pleasant surprises. Were I to place my bet, I’d say it would be extremely difficult to avoid World War III as long as there are large groups of people who believe they know what God’s will is, but I’ve been badly wrong before.
Between climate change and nuclear proliferation I too am somewhat pessimistic, but as far as our current technological civilization goes I think we’ve got a couple centuries at least. After that, if the worst case for global warming comes to pass, and you’ve got sporadic outbreaks of neighbors settling things with nukes, then think Fall of the Roman Empire/Black Death/Little Ice Age all at once, with a drastic decrease in human population, lowered standard of living for the survivors, and technological stagnation. Not the End of the World, and given how thoroughly humans have spread around the planet it will be just a matter of time (maybe centuries) before a good portion of the 6 billion or so people living in that brave new world are investing most of their mental energy in worrying about the future analogs of the World Cup and American Idol.
So put me in the pool for, say, 10 generations of continuity with our current civilization, followed by 15 to 20 generations of die-off and recovery, followed by X generations until the next Mass Extinction Event puts paid to the whole lot (unless, of course, we’ve got off-world colonies by that point.)
Yes, as a matter of fact I have read too much science fiction.
This might be a good thread to express a theory I have been developing for many years.
The major premise is that weapons, that is, things that can physically destroy stuff, have been getting bigger in power, smaller in size and more easily obtained.
The minor premise is that 99.99% of the world’s population of people or countries would never use a powerful, destructive weapon under ordinary circumstances.
But, as the world population increases, that .01% becomes a larger number in terms of actual people or countries. That tiny percentage is totally mad, unpredictable and not subject to reason.
So we have a ratio developing here between power and ease of use. As weapons get more powerful, yet more concealable and obtainable, there will come a time where the tiniest number of madmen can cause the greatest amount of damage with the least warning. At that point, protests about loss of civil liberties and such things as the rule of law will break down as too much is as stake to merely talk. Even pre-emptive strikes may look like a good bet.
Consider this: a nuclear suitcase bomb exploded in Manhattan will make 9/11 look like the good old days.
I think you’re being extremely pessimistic, and I’ve been accused of cynicism since the age of 15. People began spouting alarmist crap about countries nuking each other into oblivion decades before I was born, and they’ll continue to do so for centuries after I’m dead. Besides, even if someone does go completely insane and push a big red button, humanity is like cockroaches; enough people will find ways to outlive just about everything so it’ll be eons before we’re fully eradicated.
The survival of the species is different from civilization. I think homo sapiens will be around for a long time, but civilization is a different story.
Civilization will fall gradually, not suddenly. Of course, industrial civilization is screwed, thanks to the issues of peak oil, natural gas depletion, and diminishing returns. This whole issue is something that I’ve been reading about a lot lately.
However, there will be no doomsday where suddenly, all of the big buildings fall to the ground. However, the decline of industrial civilization will begin within a few decades.
Sorry, Colophon, I hadn’t read your link when I first replied, but it seems like your statement is very close to my theory.
Pessimistically speaking, of course.
Personally, I think civilization has broken down when it becomes spelled with an “s”.
That’s what Vance Packard said in the 1950’s. His scenario had us living in caves in 2000 after running out of oil in 1976. Or maybe, if we’re lucky, in 1978.
I think advanced AI might be able to save us from ourselves, if it is so inclined. There probably is a technological fix to global warming, we’re just too dumb to come up with it. Advanced AIs might. Right now it’s a race between advanced AIs and weapons tech. I’m hoping the AIs win.
I don’t think a single nuke or even a nuke exchange between minor powers would ruin our civilization, and if it were the right minor powers, might leave the rest of the world a safer, saner, more peaceful place, espeically if said minor powers were totally destroyed, an excellent object lesson for the rest of us.
Right, but just because past predictions are wrong doesn’t mean that this one is. There’s a good mountain of evidence pointing to an oil peak occurring at about this time.
I’m not saying that I know exactly what will happen. But energy is going to be a much more serious issue in the early 21st century than it was, say, in the 1960s.
Which civilization? If we’re not talking about extinction then I have to ask when in the history of the world has ‘civilization’ collapsed globally. The fall of the Roman Empire doesn’t cut it… heck, you even have to ask WHICH Roman empire. The eastern empire lasted several hundred years after the fall of Rome and during that entire toga party the good people of China and India were enjoying their civilizations just fine. You might ask if Western civilization will fall, and it might… but civilization in general? Impossible. The seeds of civilization have been spread so far and wide now that the only thing that could reasonably extinquish the light of culture, literature, technology and principles that we enjoy is an extinction level event. Full scale nuclear war on a tremendous scale might do it, maybe. Meteor impact, perhaps. Nothing short of that.
No it isn’t, and no it doesn’t. The only widespread support it has is from alarmists such as yourself.
We know how to get all the energy we need. The question is how much we’re willing to pay for it. We can supply all our energy needs with nuclear power for a thousand years. If we had to, we could grow bio-fuel crops and build giant wind and solar farms. None of these things are impossible - they’re just too expensive today to displace petroleum, or in the case of nuclear they’ve been regulated out of existence in the U.S. by people opposed to it. Not so elsewhere. France makes 70% of its power from nuclear.
If we have to, we can even make all-electric cars. We don’t do it now because they’re shorter in range, slower, heavier, and more expensive than the alternatives. If we don’t have alternatives, we’ll build electric cars.
The biggest worry I have for the future is the increasingly concentrated power that technology is creating. Technology is putting destructive power in the hands of ever-smaller groups of people, and technology is giving them the ability to communicate, organize, and distribute themselves around the globe in coordinated fashion. There’s an old saying that the generals always fight the last war - my worry is that the next conflict is going to come at us from a direction that is totally unexpected and that we are poorly able to deal with. Asymmetrical warfare is getting more and more asymmetrical.
