I know this is not the forum for investment advice, but I see what appears to be a huge almost-sure profit.
The Kalshi Prediction Market shows 85% chance for a Democratic House (“victory will be determined by the party identification of the Speaker of the House on February 1, 2027.”)
At Polymarket, parlay tickets ar available: 50% Ds win both House and Senate, 12% Rs win both, 38% for R Senate and D House and <2% for D Senate and R House.
Of course like all mentally competent Americans not corrupted by money I’d love to see D victory, and that victory would be very likely with fair elections.
But this election will not be fair. Trump and his fellow criminals will use every trick they can think of to subvert the elections. There are now procedures to challenge thousands of voters with a single piece of paper. Rumors are that federal officers will seize and pilfer ballot boxes.
Can anyone reassure me? Talk me out of betting on R victory, a bet which, however profitable, might be illegal and certainly immoral.