Seeing that John McCain still hold a 2% lead over Obama for a decent while now, I’m curious in finding out:
In terms of %, how many voters make a decision based on these debates?
I know the base of either party is unlikely to change the candidate they support based on debate performance, unless they make a really offensive statement.
I’m just not sure if the debates will affect enough people in *this *election to make a big difference for either candidate.
I’m sure that someone can come along with the percentages for how candidate’s numbers of gone up or down following Presidential debates, but I’d say that generally very few people base their votes entirely how a candidate performs in a debate. Rather, people watch debates to help add to their knowledge base about the candidates, particularly to see how they comport themselves in a scenario that cannot be (at least not completely) stage managed.
A couple of Presidential debates are usually pointed to as being important. The 1960 televised debates between Nixon and Kennedy (the first televised debates) contrasted a haggard looking Nixon (he was recovering from an illness and refused to wear make up) with a youthful and telegenic Kennedy. Radio listeners to the debate judged Nixon the winner, but television audiences overwhelmingly judged Kennedy the winner. Kennedy had generally trailed Nixon in the polling before the first debate: afterward, the reverse was true.
More dramatically, the Carter/Reagan Presidential debate in 1980 was a true turning point in the campaign. The race was close between Carter and Reagan, with Carter having done a pretty good job of sowing public doubts that Reagan was a warmonger and too extreme for the Presidency. During the debate, Reagan came off as cheerful and upbeat, and had the perfect soundbite with, “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” He went from tied to winning the popular vote by 10 percentage points. The conventional wisdom is that a lot of undecideds were unhappy with Carter, but hesitatant to buy into Reagan. His debate perfomance helped reassure them that he could be trusted with the White House.
It’s pretty clear that not doing well in a debate will really hurt a candidate. Gerald Ford’s 1976 campaign certainly lost momentum after he said eastern Europe was not under Soviet Union domination. Michael Dukakis (whose campaign already had enough problems) wasn’t helped in 1988 by his pedantic answer to the question of whether he’d support the death penalty if his wife were raped and killed. George Bush impatiently looking at his watch in 1992.
Those kinds of things stick in the voters’ minds.