I’m asking mostly about state level politics as it relates to presidential elections. There have been massive political realignments in history. The south going from solid democrat to solid republican. The northeast going from purple-red to solidly blue. etc.
So what all factors go into how the electorate changes, and how fast does it take, and what changes can occur from election cycle to election cycle (4 years)?
For one thing, don’t about 6% of the electorate die and get replaced every 4 years. If you assume age 18-85 is most voters, it works out to about 6% I think.
Demographics change based on multiple factors (single vs married. White vs non-white. Middle class vs working poor). Which political ideology and party you side with varies based on this.
Plus there is emigration and immigration between the states. In southern states like North Carolina, Virginia, or Georgia there have been people moving to the large cities and suburbs of the large cities, moving the political spectrum to the left.
Plus the parties themselves change, to become more or less hostile to the interests of various groups.
In the last few election cycles, places like the southwest and southern states with large cities (NC, VA, TX, GA) seem to be moving leftward. However states like WV which have a heavy coal industry are moving rightward. Clinton won 52% of the vote in Louisiana in 1996, in 2000 Gore won 44%. A democrat winning Louisiana anytime soon is unrealistic.
So has it been studied why states move politically? What all factors play a role? What kind of jumps in political affiliation can be seen between 4 year elections?
Indiana was 40% dem in 2000 and 2004, then went 50% dem in 2008, then 44% in 2012.