How much oil is in there, anyway? (If we can't stop the flow] Edited title

[samclem]

I’ve merged two threads about the same question. This one may read a bit funky.

samclem Moderator, GQ

[NinetyWt]

@samclem

What would that do?

It is true that one solution would be to set off charges within the well, to cause the surrounding material to collapse and seal off the hole. This is a solution of last resort since it could end up causing more leaks from a torn-up seafloor.

[Precambrianmollusc]

Ok so if we go with the 50MM bbls as total field reserves (we wont delve into if that is combined proved , probable possible ) it is unlikely that the full amount could be produced for the following reasons.

1. Reservoir capillary pressure - All the oil is contained in a giant bed of sand - the oil has to move through the grains of sand from where ever it is to the well bore, so the further the oil is from the well bore the greater the pressure restriction there is preventing that oil getting to the well bore. At some point the capillary pressure will be greater than the drive (the forces in place putting the reservoir under pressure) and so the all the oil wont get to the well. The flow characteristics (and the geometry) in a reservoir drive how many and where multiple wells need to be to drain a reservoir. Multiple wells are generally required to drain a reservoir to achieve maximum recovery.
   As a side note to that multiple wells are certainly used to increase daily production rates.

2. Loss of drive. As mentioned there are forces driving the oil to surface - these can be the pressure of a gas cap in the reservoir, hydrostatic from an aquifer and the over burden - which is the weight of all that rock and water above squashing down on the reservoir. As the field is drained the pressure can drop - at some point the pressure drops to a level that it is not sufficient to drive the oil to surface. The oil and gas industry spends a lot of time and money on pressure management of a reservoir, complete wells are drilled solely for the purpose of injecting fluids or gas to keep up the pressure reservoir or for simply monitoring the pressure at points in the field to optimize production from multiple wells.

3. Gas or water conning. Gas and water are significantly more mobile through the rock matrix than oil is. Many wells eventually fall over because they water out or gas cut becomes too high. Basically the water moves through the matrix and displaces the oil close to the well bore and a preferable water production path is created. The O&G industry spends a lot of time and cash controlling where the wells are perforated (or directional drilled) to stay away from water zones. In addition draw down (basically how hard the well is allowed to flow) is controlled as a high draw down is likely to cause a well to water out early.

4. Sand production. Wells in friable weak sandstones tend to produce sand grains with the produced oil - these have an annoying habit of plugging up production lines and decreasing the permeability of the formation immediately around the well bore. Again a lot of time and cash is spent in completion design, sand control, gravel packing wells etc to try and prevent these problems and keep a well on stream and producing

5. Hydrate scale and wax build up - more of a well head issue - but waxes and hydrates build up and scales can clog up the well. Again lots of downhole hardware such as chemical injection lines are installed to overcome these issues.

So to fully drain a field and prevent individual wells falling over as great deal of work needs to be done, none of which has been done on this well. This one well has no sand control, no scale/hydrate/wax build up prevention, the well production zone is not controlled so water out/gas cut is more likely, there is no reservoir pressure maintenance, the well may not be in an optimal place to drain the field and bridging off at some point is more than likely.

Clearly this is not to say ‘meh it will sort itself out don’t sweat it’ however I would think the possibility that it could come even close to producing the whole field proven estimates is very very low.

[Colophon]

@penultima_thule

Collected and refined?
None.

You aren’t going to put into a refinery a petrochemical feedstock that’s high in salt water and the volatile fractions have already evapourated off.

Really, all the oil that has leaked is wasted and worthless?

[Capt.Ridley_s_Shooting_Party]

@samclem

What would that do?

That’s how the Soviets solved a leaking well head that they couldn’t get under control.

@Hampshire

I’ve never heard of this place before: Coal Oil Point
, but it sounds like a naturally occuring oil leak not unlike the current gulf spill.
Not a pretty thing and wildlife around it seems pretty non-exsistant but nobody seems overly concerned about it.
Of course you don’t want another area like it to exsist especially due to human carelessness but it seems like it can be dealt with being there.

“Not overly concerned”? The Gulf leak’s in one of the US’s biggest fisheries, not to mention tourists drawn to the location because of the beaches and coast. It’s an economic disaster.

[Colophon]

@Capt.Ridley_s_Shooting_Party

“Not overly concerned”? The Gulf leak’s in one of the US’s biggest fisheries, not to mention tourists drawn to the location because of the beaches and coast. It’s an economic disaster.

I think the “not overly concerned” comment was about the naturally occurring (and much smaller) seep, not the BP gusher.

[bahimes]

@RickJay

Let’s suppose (and hope it’s just supposition) that the BP oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico turned out to be unstoppable; nobody on earth could devise a way to prevent it.

How much oil would this thing end up spewing into the Gulf? I presume it’d keep doing it until the pressure in the oil reserve was too weak to keep spewing. How much is that? Given how much oil it would be, just how big could the disaster get? Could it cover the entire Gulf? The entire Atlantic? Destroy the world?

The well head is at approximately one mile below the sea level =160 atmoshperes of seawater pressure or about 4000PSI. When the pressure in the well decreases below that level, the flow should be squeezed off (mostly). Unfortunately, even though the amount of oil is a relatively small amount when considering the vast volume of the Gulf itself, it is situated near the Gulf Loop current, which flows through the Keys and potentially into the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic.
One of the troubling news items that I have seen is that BP was pushing water, rather than mud into the well, and that, with the defects in the blow out preventer and the concrete casings have confounded the issue.
Vacuuming oil from the sea is a job for Mike Rowe. Dirty and not very efficient.

[Happy_Fun_Ball]

I’m seeing reports that the top kill procedure worked. Here’s one: LA Times. Anybody seeing reports to the contrary?

[Exapno_Mapcase]

Obviously, this thread should have been started sooner.

[Darryl_Lict]

@Hampshire

I’ve never heard of this place before: Coal Oil Point
, but it sounds like a naturally occuring oil leak not unlike the current gulf spill.
Not a pretty thing and wildlife around it seems pretty non-exsistant but nobody seems overly concerned about it.
Of course you don’t want another area like it to exsist especially due to human carelessness but it seems like it can be dealt with being there.

I live pretty near there. UCSB is right next to it, and it’s a popular surf break. The tar is pretty annoying and virtually every pair of swim trunks I owned when I lived in Isla Vista had tar on them. Nearly every apartment has a bottle of vegetable oil used to wipe the tar off your feet.

I live about 14 miles away now, and the oil blobs drop off significantly to where I don’t notice them that much, save for the occasional blob on my kayak.

Unfortunately, the problem is conflated with the considerable offshore drilling rigs. It’s not by coincidence that UCSB’s Ultimate team is called “The Black Tide”.

[NinetyWt]

@L. G. Butts

I’m seeing reports that the top kill procedure worked. Here’s one: LA Times. Anybody seeing reports to the contrary?

I’ve read that there is some concern over the rate of mud being used - already used up what’s on one ship and have gone to the second, a third ship is at the ready but it isn’t a good omen. Also just read that a junk shot is going to be employed as well.

[Capt.Ridley_s_Shooting_Party]

There’s at least one report stating that they haven’t stopped it, merely slowed the rate of leakage.