It’s a well-known fact that Presidents popular with his own constituency also have a tendency to stir up equal hate on the other side of the political aisle. Bill Clinton and George W. Bush have been prime examples of said impulse.
Obama seems to be on track for this. Even though I don’t agree with a lot of this conservative blogger’s post (even the equally conservative source whose link I found thinks it’s a tad early to declare Obama a failure), the attitude is a good example of what I’m saying, as is the declaration that his presidency will “galvanize” conservatives into another Reagan-like revolution.
So how much do you think Obama will inspire the forces who disagree with him, ideologically? Does/will the fervor of his supporters have direct impact? Will it overcome the discontent Republicans have over the party at large? The relative lack of a current “galvanizing” figure within their own party, other than Sarah Palin?
That will never happen again in your lifetime or mine, because conservatives no longer have a sufficient voter base. The “Silent Majority” is now a minority – permanently, because of fundamental demographic, generational and cultural changes. See here.
The Republican Party might make a comeback – but only by becoming less conservative.
I think that politics have gotten particularly polarizing in recent years. Politicians (from all sides) have gone out of their ways to demonize their opponents and their viewpoints.
The current political landscape needs to change drastically in order for us to avoid the “galvanization” you described. One of my hopes is that Obama follows through on his promise to “change” politics (as much as he is capable), so that the country can engage in meaningful debate without automatically seeing opposing viewpoints as treasonous, evil, or otherwise.
Based on the chatter and comments I’ve seen and heard in alternate sites and media, I would say he’s doing a pretty good job of setting a fire under those that lean into the other isle. The next election in two years will be a good barometer. If the groundswell I’m seeing continues to grow it could well be a major slapdown.
BTW - Before you paint me as such, I’m not a Rush or Hannity listener.
I’m not sure that’s true: they would hate him with equal vigour if his administration were a failure. However, what’s really important for 2012 is how he goes down with people in the middle: moderate Repubs, moderate Dems, and the unafffiliated. Those on the extreme right will always vote against him, and those on the extreme left have nowhere else to go (given the US’s two-party system).
From the Right:
Nationalizing banks, I think he’ll try and I think Conservatives will scream socialism.
Every dollar he spends on any stimulus project will be called wasted government pork, if McCain would have won we wouldn’t have this.
From the far Left:
Obama will scale back his promises on Universal Heath Care at a time when baby boomers are drawing Social Security checks and their pensions are drying up in bankrupt companies.
He will not get out of Iraq as soon as hoped. The war In Afghanistan will drag on and on.
He will try and work with Conservatives despite consistent evidence that they will not compromise.
Given how detached from reality the Right has become, I don’t think that anything Obama does will have much effect either way. They aren’t paying attention to the actual, real world Obama, but to the demonic Obama they’ve made up for themselves. They’ll be getting worked up over him being the Antichrist, or a fascistic socialist, or a secret Muslim, and so on.
There’s no groundswell of new opposition. The people who hate him now are the same people who hated him in October. There isn’t going to be another '94, much less another '80. The right wing radio/Fox News/Free Republic type conservatives have forever lost the upper hand in terms of demographic numbers. The GOP is in somewhat of an identity crisis right now. It’s afraid of angering its meathead base (witness that idiot grovelling before Limbaugh last week), but if the don’t expand beyond that base, they’re dead. The angry white guy vote isn’t going to be enough anymore.