To my knowledge there are no cars on the road currently even approaching that low of a price new that have more than two seats. For a lot of people, that just doesn’t work. You don’t have a spouse and kid? Fine, keep your bike. Some of us do, or friends that we like to travel with.
You’re asking for, in your own words, a revolution approaching what the computer industry routinely sees in an industry that does not move nearly as fast. The auto industry is moving slowly, but it’s moving and many people buy cars rarely enough that they will see noticeable change between purchases even at the current rate of change.
I think it’s a good idea to give replaceable batteries a shot. If it’s done properly we could probably find a system that is standardized yet flexible. Maybe you could allow new types of batteries to be introduced occasionally to meet with new tech demands. Then you go to a service station and it pops the new ones out of the bottom of your car and plugs in a new one.
Battery service would then need to be something you pay for as a service rather than a cost per battery. For instance, a new car could come with batteries pre-installed if you mainly want to use it in your daily commute. Or you could just lease batteries which would give you the ability to swap out fresh ones whenever you want.
Maybe if you didn’t subscribe, they could pro-rate your battery based on how much of a charge it can hold, and subtract it from the new one at the station? At a station you’d get to pick from batteries of varying states, and the ones that hold the most charge cost full price, with less capable ones costing less.
But I seriously asked the question a few months ago as to why it wouldn’t be possible for home production of H2 and O. You take some aparatus, plug it in to water and power and it makes your H2 and O for you. Same principle as a battery, only it’d be like charging it all the time. But I guess the inefficiencies involved would probably make it not worth it.
Ah, but you see, yanking the cord out of a car is not a crime, nor would it be seen as really “hurting” someone, like scratching the paint would be.
But Tesla’s the only ones who’ve taken the appraoch of building something like a “real” car. They’ve got the longest range of anyone out there. To be a practical car, you will need the kind of range a Tesla has.
Nozzle size was determined by federal law, after much weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth. Nor is a 110V cord practical for rapid charging.
The electric car that most people will own, will be a “battery behemoth.” The guy that comes out with an electric car that has a 200 mile range, will sell more of them than the guy who comes out with an electric car that only has a 50 mile range. One of the things thats buried in the fine print of electric cars is that the max range is what you get when you don’t xrun any of the power draining accessories. Presently, in a modern car, the electronics are a pretty big drain on the battery (car makers keep wanting to go up to 42V systems as the 12V systems are becoming inadequate, but they can’t seem to agree on how to make it work), load up the same kind of electronics in an electronic car, and you really kill the range. Tesla’s able to avoid much of this, because nobody wants a DVD player in a sportscar. They’ve also been able to do without some of the power draining things like airbags and stability control because of the small number of cars they build. Making a mass production car, with sales numbers in the tens, if not hundreds, of thousands, means that you’re going to have to add airbags, stability control, intire pressure monitors, and a number of other things. All of which will drain the battery and cut the range of the vehicle. When you add in things like DVD players, GPS units, and OnStar (or similar systems), the drain on the batteries gets even larger.
IIRC, the units cost something like $500+ (installation extra, of course). Not a huge expense, but you’ll have to have them installed by trained personnel, you’ll have to get approval by codes and zoning in some areas, it’ll need to be mounted some place where its easy to get to, and if there’s not a 220V line (or better) in the garage, carport, what have you, one will have to be ran there. All of this will be easier in new home construction, not so easy in a retrofit environment.
Then you have the issues of servicing the unit. Its going to see a lot of wear and tear (pulling in and unplugging on a daily basis), so there’s going to be issues over who’s in charge of repairing/replacing the units. Not to mention, lawsuits from fires. (Not that the units would be dangerous, but sooner or later, one of them is going to be improperly installed, some idiot will tamper with theirs, or they’ll get a defective unit which shorts out.) Doesn’t matter who’s at fault, someone will sue everyone involved with the unit.
We also have the issue of “smart meters” which aren’t common, that adjust your bill based on when you use your electricity. Some people aren’t going to be happy if they can only charge their car at night (you know, people who the nightshift are going to have problems with this). Other people will be upset if they’re sold a car, told that it’ll be cheap to recharge at night, and then discover that because they don’t have a smart meter, they’re not getting a reduced rate for charging at night.
Not to mention that most people don’t really know what they spend per month on gas. They have a vague idea, but because they’re not getting billed for it all at once, they don’t truly notice that. They switch to an electric car, and discover that their electric bill has suddenly spiked, they’re going to be less than happy, even if they are saving money in the long run.
We’ve been over this before, and there’s a number of problems with it. One is the amount of batteries which would need to be kept on hand. Lets take a situation where everyone has agreed on a standard size battery pack (with SUVs and pickups taking two battery packs, while your typical car only takes one). In a high traffic area (which is where you want to locate your business), you’re going to have to be able to handle several hundred cars an hour. This means that you’ll have to have a large underground complex for storing and charging of the batteries. You’ll also have to have people inspecting the batteries for damage, wear and tear, and other issues.
The problem with using batteries of different capacities is that this introduces issues of weight balance in the car. A battery pack which has half the storage capacity of another pack, is only going to weigh about half as much. In order for you to not have to worry about safety issues, you’ll have to make the battery packs weigh the same, which means you might as well have one size capacity battery pack for a vehicle, because there’s no point in carrying around so much dead weight. Not to mention that this opens the possibility for fraud if you have different capacity batteries.
There’s also the issue of what to do about the remaining charge levels in a battery. Will you get credit for this? After all, it’d be pretty rare for you to swap out a completely dead battery, and if you have to go on a trip, and know that you’ll run out of juice before you get to the next charging station, you’d want to swap batteries even if you had half a charge. Then there’s the matter of what happens when someone runs out of juice on the highway. Are the states going to have roving booster trucks (like they have trucks that will give you a gallon or two of gas if you run out)? Will they be able to give you a boost to get you to a battery center in a short period of time, or will it take an hour to charge the car up enough to get it where it needs to go? (Or will they simply tow you, with all the attendant problems that causes?)
There’s people working on this, but the set ups, like many of the home biofuel units aren’t cheap. In some cases they can cost as much as $10K.
It’s true that the market conditions don’t exist yet for this to truly work. The battery tech is a little too problematic, and expensive, etc. But smart companies invest in the future. Losing money on a plug-in hybrid makes sense when you realize that you’ll have a leg-up in the tech when gas gets expensive enough. Anyone who thinks it won’t is a fool. Asia’s demand for oil is going up at a tremendous pace, so it’s almost a guarantee that it will pay off in the future.
If we all were to switch to electric, then yes we’d need to modernize our power grid. I think that’s one thing that Obama needs to focus on, so we’ll have the potential in the future to generate all the power needed for the country in more remote and separated areas.
But really, maybe we’re going to need to disavow ourselves of the notion of long-distance travel in personal cars. We got a taste of what that was like this summer. I guarantee you in 5 years, gasoline will be even more expensive with respect to inflation. So going on a road-trip with a gas-powered car will be problematic too. Maybe we should be more sensible and make long-distance trips in buses and trains (don’t know how planes stack up on fuel efficiency per person but I have a feeling it might be bad). I think the primary goal is to get a car that can be used as a daily driver for under 40 miles a day. When we get there, maybe we can look in to other things.
ETA: I also think that Tesla is smart for doing what they’re doing. Yes it sucks that they are having financial problems but I think it is unfair to criticize them for selling expensive cars in the beginning. It is a logical plan to sell expensive cars to help pay for infrastructure and development of the tech which will allow for cheaper stuff in the future. They essentially set about the idea as if it were a tech company. Start off expensive and niche and then graduate down to commodity prices and volumes. I don’t know why they are facing financial problems but I don’t think it’s an out-right boneheaded plan.
Only if the battery technology can be made to work. We won’t know that until somebody does it. Of course, something could come along and make battery technology obsolete. (Inexpensive fuel cells could do this, as would a number of other things being researched at the moment.)
The question is: Will we be willing to spend the money to build a proper power grid, or will we simply continue with the patchwork pattern we’ve done to date? If we put everyone in electric cars, and we don’t start burying the power lines, then imagine what it will be like trying to rebuild an area after a disaster like Katrina. The only way people will be able to recharge their cars until the power grid is restored (which could take months) is by having portable generators. With gas powered cars, even if the power goes out for months, you can aways siphon gas out of a below ground tank.
You’re neglecting a few important areas of individualized transportation: Sales, delivery, and service routes. People in those fields (and the last two cannot be replaced by something like teleconferencing) often put hundreds of miles a day on their vehicle, without ever leaving town.
Tesla’s problem, however, is that they’re serving a very small niche market, and then by making the cars all electric, they’re serving and even smaller niche of that market. They also went into the business with the wrong attitude. They said, “We know all about battery technology used in laptops, so we’ll just make giant laptop batteries and run the car that way, and it’ll have all this great performance.” They quickly found out that it wasn’t nearly as simple as they thought.
These seem like unreasonable requirements. Why wouldn’t you be happy to have a car that costs as much as cars do now, and runs for about the same cost as gas? Why must a possible EV/hybrid be better on both those counts to consider it?
I also don’t see why you think that having the ability to use just one fuel is better than two. Plug-in hybrids don’t need gas and electricity, they need gas or electricity. It’s the best of both worlds. You can be flexible and use whichever is cheaper/more convenient on any given day.
Right, the same kind of revolution Henry Ford brought to the same industry 90 years ago.
When I fill up my gas tank, I am lugging around the fuel for 300 miles as I drive away from the pump. The reason why this works is the fuel system weighs much less than batteries for the same amount of energy. And there’s the problem – poor fuel capacity. Batts are not only heavy but take up a lot of space.
I remember reading a book 50 years ago, lists of inventions the world needed most. In the top 10 was “a more efficient battery.” While great strides have been made in 50 years, to be sure, we haven’t reached the technological level once hoped for. And while hand-sized alkaline or Li-Ion batteries, for example, are far better than old standard dry cells, much of the improvement for portable devices has been by reducing their power requirements due to electronic advances. I remember a portable AM radio the size of two bricks that needed two heavy, bulky, expensive batteries and they lasted only a few hours because the tube filaments had to be kept lit.
Why switch if there’s no cost advantage? Inertia is a powerful force, my friend. And Version 2 is probably worth waiting for in any field.
Henry Ford’s customers weren’t looking for something just like what was already available, like a Stanley Steamer. Ford made his millions by providing something much better, or at least cheaper.
I don’t know what an “ultracapacitor” battery is but I’ve seen a demonstration of a capacitor battery. It had half the amperage of a battery (per volumetric size) but it was much lighter and charged VERY rapidly. assuming it takes 1/3 of the charge of the most advanced battery then that means it would take 3 times the space. That’s certainly doable if you’re using the engine compartment and fenderwells as well as the center tunnel area and gas tank area. There’s a lot of empty space in a car that goes unused if you take away the traditional engine/transmission.
From a cost standpoint it would mean that the cost of the engine/transmission is replaced by batteries and maybe a small generator. Otherwise, you’re right back in the hybrid category where the propulsion system is made up of 2 major systems fighting for space (and money).
While there is a market for commuter cars that are ultra fuel efficient it is a niche market because cars are expected to do more than transport. To avoid buying 2 vehicles I need a car that can tow a small trailer and also be able to haul 4 adults around. I also need enough trunk space for groceries and general “stuff”.
As a lateral hijack, I would prefer we promote diesel cars in the short term combined with the production of bio-diesel from algae. The technology for both already exist and we could theoretically produce all our fuel locally. It has the benefit of greatly improved fuel economy in a car that can pull it’s own weight. And the process uses CO2 scrubbed from coal plants. It’s a carbon neutral process that will move us up the ladder toward a technology I can only guess at in 50 years.
You can’t, however, just stick capacitors wherever you want in a car. Put them in a wrong spot, and they’ll short out and explode in a minor fender bender, or rescue workers will cut into them when they’re trying to get someone out of the car. Capacitors also can’t store power for very long, and “bleed off” current fairly rapidly. It would suck to have half a charge when you go into a store and come out an hour later to discover your capacitors had drained off while you were inside.
I’ve yet to hear of a ultracapacitor system that would be as cheap as a conventional car engine and transmission (and AFAIK, no one’s come up with an ultracapacitor which is practical for cars).
Ding! And in the past car makers have tried selling vehicles which could convert from one type to another, and found that they didn’t sell very well, because people didn’t want the hassle of bolting on extra stuff or they didn’t have the space in their garage to store the other parts.
That’s not a bad idea, nor is something like Kamen’s of using a stirling engine, which like a steam engine is fuel “agnostic.”
My experience with capacitors is that stay charged FOREVER so it would be just the opposite of the senerio you describe. And I agree with you about battery location. I remember the Howard Hughes movie scene where he throws a hammer at a steam powered car (I think it was Howard Hughes). That’s why I didn’t mention doors. I’ve thought about that problem in relation to eletrical cars in general. It might be possible to discharg the voltage to the ground or a large fuse designed to convert the energy to heat. It would be triggered like an airbag.
If we start making them then inventors will work on inventing them?? How does that work exactly? Do you think they have already been invented and Big Business is holding out on us…or something?
Problem with draining voltage off to the ground: How do you do this safely, if there’s lots of water around?
The door scene with Howard Hughes (from the biopic starring Tommy Lee Jones) isn’t accurate as to how steam cars operated. Later model Whites, Stanley Steamers, and Dobles had front mounted condensors and nobody got cooked.
Just thought of an idea. Keeping with my diesel car society I envision a hybrid option that allows an oversized generator to be used as auxiliary drive motor along with a battery pack that can be removed when not needed. That way you could have a real car (with space) when you needed it and a battery powered commuter just for work. The idea would be to broaden a niche market with a vehicle that has more utility. If 60% of the driving is to/from work and you still need a family car that can tow something then this would be another step up the ladder.
Ah, my confusion. I thought you had said someting about punks with “bolt cutters and rubber gloves” … oh yeah, you did. Locking covers is easy and besides you are missing Sam’s point: the future transportation infrastructure is highly unlikely to consist of a single approach. Your perspective that a single solution is needed for all market segments is illustrated further by your next comment:
Of course many want that range, even if few actually need it. A range extender (the EREV approach, along with PHEVs) gives them that. Pure BEVs will fit for other market segments.
As for the wisdom of Tesla’s approach … well they succeeded in changing EV’s image from the golf cart to the roadster. That was important and benefits the whole field. But they ran into some problems with execution and now the market conditions make high end toys a tougher sell. Few expected that the economy would sour that bad.
Doubt it. Most don’t need rapid charge especially at home. They need the care ready to go by the next morning. Most electric cars, at least in the near to medium term, will be EREVs and PHEVs - it accomplishes most of the good of the EV (energy independence, significantly decreased green house gas emissions even if all power came from a coal fired plants, decreased operating costs, etc.) with the freedom and flexibility of an ICE in today’s infrastructure environment.
Actually I don’t think that airbags drain much power, nor pressure sensors. But heat and especially AC do. That point is valid and part of the GM development has been to come up with ways to reduce that drain. Range with AC running will be much decreased just like gas mileage goes down now.
I’m not sure what you are talking about with the charging stations. Any 110 line will do or any 220 if the car has that port. Rapid charge (like 10 minutes) really will not be something set up at home. That is just moving too much electricity too quickly for that circumstance and again really is not needed by most consumers esp at that location.
At flat rate costs (no off-peak discount) it is cheaper to run an EV than an ICE by far. It will indeed be up to the power companies to figure out how to entice people to charge primarily off peak. It is in their best interest to do so. From there they will try to come up with ways to allow themselves to “borrow” power from your car when it is parked as well (V2G) … and that will be a hard sell.
Which segues into the power grid issue. The current grid could handle more than 80% of all of today’s autos being EVs if charged at off-peak. Still the infrastructure is a shambles. Yes I also hope to see investments in the electric infrastructure as part of a stimulus package.
Actually these are the uses for which pure BEV is ideal. See, for example, delivery trucks from Smith. 150 mile range on one charge and rapid recharge at central locations for the fleet. Perfect for city routes. Several Chinese concerns are creating similar products - some were used as garbage trucks and shuttle buses during the Olympics. The fuel and maintenance savings become huge with the huge miles these vehicles log.
Long distance travel would be ill served by pure BEV and someone who does lots of it would be better of with another sort of vehicle. Diesel (and sure designer deisel from algae or other plant source) or cellulosic ethanol extenders, or natural gas as Pickens would prefer will replace some gasoline there. But between BEV and EREVs, there are EVs that would meet the needs of most of the rest of us.
I don’t think that there’s going to be a battery with energy density to replace gas anytime soon. I expect my car to be able to carry 1900lbs of people and stuff, with climate control running at least 50 miles over 6 hours at 22[sup]o[/sup]F (-5[sup]o[/sup]C).
I won’t buy one until they reach the point that I can drive across country in no more that 110% of the time it would take to do so today, as well as handle the above condition.
The solution exists; the nickel-iron battery (invented by Edison,ca. 1907). The solution is to have the battery pack carried on a detachable trailer. You merely detach and attach a freshly charged pack. the Ni-Fe battery will last for years and are cheap to build.
Even if it were both possible and practical (not the same thing…and I’m skeptical it would be either of those things), it doesn’t sound like an optimal solution to me. I mean…I know I’m not going to be to keen on having to drive around with a trailer hooked to the back of my car all the time. Not to mention having to replace the trailer every time I want to refuel.