Against my better judgment, I’m finding myself spending way too much time checking and rechecking the polls/predictions/your takes on same… But the only realization I have is that - either the polls are pretty much of little use, or things are really sad and we just need to wait until we are a lot closer or the day of the election. I guess I keep hoping to see a clear trend supporting improved chances for Harris, but it really doesn’t seem to be developing.
So I’m just wondering what you folk are doing? How often are you checking the various poll/prediction sites, and why? Do your poll habits improve or harm your mindset?
I realize this might be IMHO fare, but given the subject matter, I thought it might go well in P&E.
I check RealClear Polling, 538, and Silver Bulletin at least once per day.
Why? I find it compelling to follow day-to-day. To see trends when they’ve barely poked out of the ground and watch as they take root (or else wither away).
When you ask about “a clear trend supporting improved chances for Harris”, that actually has come to pass. It’s hard to see looking at occasional snapshots, and her apparent support in the polls has slowed in growth recently … but if you look at her very early poll figures from the last few days of July and compare them to today, she’s erased Biden’s poll deficits and made up another few percent on top of that.
Harris Gets Her Best Battleground Poll So Far - A new Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll is the closest we’ve had to her being at 270 Electoral College votes outside the margin of error so far:
Now, we want to see some leads like these from some other poll in the upcoming month or so, especially as we get distance from the DNC and the Sept 10 debate. But despite how the “it’s a horse race!” media has been portraying things lately, all the news has not been doom-&-gloom for the Harris campaign. Not even in “Pennsylvania!”.
I am not huge sports fan but is with the same interest I watch the score when I do watch a game.
When watching I care about every run, every field goal, every basket, maybe especially if the game is close, such that a lead now could easily be a loss later. Is it rational? Probably not.
I only look at polls if they’re posted here or they’re shown on some TV news program I’m watching. I don’t obsess over how my investments are doing every day either (unlike my sister).
Same. I’ll read the numbers and the analysis in subsequent posts but I don’t put much stock in them and I definitely don’t go out proactively looking for them.
I’ve been proselytizing for years that people should pay no attention to individual polls, but that trends are meaningful, albeit not indisputable.
The trend for Harris has been consistently upward from Biden’s announcement. The smoothness of the line is telling. Harris did not get a bump from the DNC and only a slight tick from Kennedy dropping out. That tells me that the undecideds and waverers and double haters are getting involved in the election and consistently breaking for her, rather than just responding to news events. I know all the press is calling for her to do policies, but fuck them. She’s going the route toward victory and that’s literally all that matters.
I do check the polling collectors pretty regularly, but only to see if new polls have been added. Nate Silver lists polls and puts them into a moving average for the national popular vote and battleground states. So does RealClearPolitics, using a slightly different set of polls. I like Silver’s interface better, but RCP has a somewhat right tilt so it’s useful for tamping enthusiasm.
I’ve been watching US polls in your elections ever since Hillary had a good lead over Trump in 2016 and fell flat on her face. I also want to see how it’s possible for a significant number of the electorate who say they’ll vote for a convicted criminal who hypocritically touts “law and order”.
I read The votemaster (www.electoralvote.com) every morning and they always report the latest polls. This morning’s had Harris ahead by 4% in PA. That’s getting to be significant.
Yeah, I found myself trying to read the tea leaves, and then just being hugely disappointed when I found that apparent leads were either not reliable, or did not mean much in a single rep.
My brain lacks the sophistication to grok the math, and I put too much emotion into an apparent 52/48% lead in the polls. And I tend to read the results as saying what I WANT them to say.
To those of you who view and parse the polls regularly - and post your assessments here - I thank you.
270toWin has a page with a dozen or so maps from different forecasters, updating the page whenever they change a state, say from likely to lean. Most of the forecasts are pretty far behind, unfortunately, but they provide a range of analysis reminding us that toss up states are still undetermined even if Harris now has a theoretical two-point lead.
Once or twice a week. I find the news headlines quoting polls annoying. A paragraph claiming a change. Then at the end disclaimer: the numbers are withing polling error.
I don’t check them at all any more, because the media very obviously wants Trump to win and has been playing with the polls for the last three cycles to misrepresent the popularity of Republicans.
I find that checking them frequently is about as good for your health as checking your 401(k) every day. You can’t help but catch from news sites and television how the trends are going and that’s plenty for me.
I keep tabs on the polls in threads here, or I’ll pay attention if they happen to pop up while otherwise watching a news program. I don’t keep daily tabs on specific polls, nor do I actively seek out polling data. Particularly given discrepancies in polls in recent elections, as cited by other posters here, there doesn’t seem to be much value in keeping track of day-to-day polls.
The threads here generally keep me pretty well informed about where general polling trends are going. That’s more valuable right now than individual polls I think. And if something truly surprising happens I know it’ll get talked about here.
