Don’t need answer fast (in fact, I’m not sure there is a definitive answer).
A little background:
I live in Los Angeles. Every Christmas, I spend a few days with my family in Northern California, about 2 1/2 hours north of San Francisco (nearest freeway is the 101). I generally drive, as I find the drive allows me to spend some contemplation time and I have more control over my travel (the alternatives, which I have used, are to fly into SFO and then drive for about 2 1/2 hours or fly into Santa Rosa at twice the price and drive about an hour).
The routes north from LA are limited (Google maps times with light/no traffic and no stops in parentheses). The 5 (8 hours), the 101 (9 hours), and the 99 (~12 hours). Both the 5 and 99 routes require getting over to the 101 at some point, of course. Generally I take the 5 north (with stops and some traffic, it takes 9-10 hours), unless the Tejon pass is closed due to snow. I know the route, but I use my GPS to see what’s ahead of me and adjust my route.
Going south, I generally reverse my route north, but if the 5 has severe problems, I’ll just shoot down the 101. The problem is, I have to make the decision about 6-8 hours before the pass. This last year, I ran into a situation where the pass was dicey when I left my family’s house and by the time I hit Berkley, the pass was closed and my GPS was predicting up to 15-18 hours to my destination. I knew from the LA traffic/weather Sirius station that they had closed the pass to those without chains but expected to start escorting vehicles through shortly, and might fully open the pass sometime later. Somewhere around Oakland/Hayward, I made the decision to try the 101 (not the ideal decision point) and proceeded to snake down the East Bay and intercept the 101 in San Jose. My GPS was giving me routes to cut over and take the 5 to the pass, but still with absurd (18 hours) times to destination. Everything went fine until I hit Santa Barbara, when I hit the mother of all traffic jams (at 10 PM!). Once past Santa Barbara, it was smooth sailing, but all told, my trip took 12 1/2 hours! After the fact, it turned out that they did re-open the pass in the late evening, and I might have hit it just after re-opening if I stuck to my original route.
The question:
So, my question is “How should I use modern GPS and mapping when I have to make significant route decisions many hours beforehand?” I know that the GPS predictions run on current traffic conditions, but those conditions can change drastically over 6-8 hours. Some, like rush hour traffic, are predictable, but others have a Schrodinger-like quality, not resolving until the measurement occurs.
How do you handle these situations, where making the wrong decision might add 2-3 hours to your trip time?